Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca analyze players from all the 14 NFL Playoff teams for the Guillotine Leagues CHOPionship rosters.

It’s Guillotine Leagues^TM Week here at Fantasy Life. We’ve already written a bunch of articles about how to approach the two different formats available during the postseason: The CHOPionship and the Gulloteenie. We have strategy articles, rankings, cheat sheets, so there is a ton of great content to dive into as you prepare for your drafts.

There are some key differences between the two formats. The Guilloteenie operates more like a traditional Guillotine League, with weekly waivers and the ability to improve your roster through each round of the postseason.

But the CHOPionship is a different beast. There is no draft, and you’ll instead build a 14-player roster entirely of your own choosing. That includes eight starters and six reserves, but that’s all you get for the duration of the playoffs. You’re also capped at a maximum of three players per NFL squad, so you can’t load up on a team like the Chiefs or Lions and hope to ride them all the way to the Super Bowl. 

That means that the maximum number of players that you can have available during the Super Bowl is six.

What is the best way to maximize your roster allocation? In this article, Geoff Ulrich and myself are going to detail how we’re approaching each team in each conference. I’ll handle the AFC, while Geoff will tackle the NFC.

Let’s dive in.

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AFC Players to Target

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so drafting players from that squad means that they won’t be available during the first round. That’s obviously a hindrance in a format where the lowest-scoring teams get chopped. It’s quite possible that loading up on Kansas City could cost you a spot in the divisional round.

However, the Chiefs are considered the most likely team to make it to the Super Bowl from the AFC. They’re currently listed at +145 to win the conference, good for an implied probability of greater than 40%. That makes this team a priority target.

Of course, you can build around the team’s studs. That would include Patrick Mahomes at quarterback and Travis Kelce at tight end, and Kelce stands out as a particularly strong weapon. He’s the best fantasy tight end remaining in the postseason, so having him on your roster is an excellent luxury. Unsurprisingly, Paul Charchian ranks him as KC’s top option in this format, but the lack of a first-round matchup drops him to No. 26 overall. Still, he’s someone who will be on close to all of my squads.

The bigger question is should you include Mahomes? From a fantasy standpoint, he was not in the same weight class as some of the other playoff quarterbacks this season. However, his playoff track record and potential for another deep run make him the guy I’m willing to bet on in the AFC.

The best part about stacking the Chiefs is that you can go in a bunch of different directions with your third choice. You could take one of the three receivers—Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, or De’Andre Hopkins—or you could grab one of the running backs (Isiah Pacheco or Kareem Hunt).

Worthy and Pacheco are the highest ranked by Charch, but I personally like the idea of differentiating with Brown. He’s been a frequent target for Mahomes since joining the rotation two games ago (44% targets per route run), and he could very easily see a spike in routes during the playoffs.

Buffalo Bills

After the Chiefs, there’s a slight step down to the next tier. Buffalo is +300 to win the conference, which translates to an implied probability of 25%. However, Buffalo will take the field in the Wild Card round, and it will also be playing at home in the divisional round. That makes them one of the strongest teams to target overall.

That starts with Josh Allen, who is arguably the best quarterback in fantasy. He should be an extremely popular choice in this contest, as should James Cook at RB. After that, guys like Khalil Shakir, Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid will be in contention for the third spot.

There’s no doubt that the Bills will be a popular choice, and having lineups built around them making the Super Bowl makes tons of sense if you’re building multiple lineups. However, if you’re only building one team, I feel more comfortable building around the Chiefs in the AFC, who have a significantly easier road. Grabbing a standalone player like Cook, Shakir, or Kincaid is viable, but unless you think the Bills can beat the Ravens and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks, you should look elsewhere for stacking purposes.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are the No. 3 seed, so they would have to travel to Buffalo in the divisional round if both teams advance on Wild Card weekend. However, the Ravens actually have slightly better odds to win the conference at +280. The Ravens have already blasted the Bills once this season—Week 4, 35-10 in Baltimore—so it’s possible that they match up well with Buffalo.

Regardless, choosing between the Ravens and Bills makes sense. It is not possible for both teams to make it to the conference championships, and my goal is to advance as many players as possible to that round of the playoffs.

If you do choose to stack the Ravens, Lamar Jackson is a must. The same goes for Derrick Henry, who is one of the top running backs in this contest. Zay Flowers would be the logical No. 3 to round out the team, but there are some other options you can consider as well. Mark Andrews has been a touchdown-scoring machine down the stretch, while Rashod Bateman has some contrarian appeal at receiver.

Ultimately, choosing between the three AFC powerhouses is one of the most important decisions you’ll have to make in this tournament. I’m personally prioritizing the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills (in that order), but there’s really no wrong answer. Just make sure that you are giving yourself a chance at advancing three players from each conference—one quarterback and five skill-position players—to maximize your overall odds of winning. If you go with nine players from the top three AFC squads, that’s going to be tough to accomplish.

Houston Texans

I went a bit long-winded on the first three teams, but there’s good reason for that. It’s hard for me to envision a scenario where someone other than the Chiefs, Bills, or Ravens advances out of this conference. With that in mind, the remaining four teams should simply be used to help you advance out of the first two rounds.

The Texans are the No. 4 team in the AFC, but they’re actually home underdogs vs. the Chargers. The Chargers also have better conference odds, so they seem like the more likely team to advance in this matchup.

Still, the Texans are my personal choice to win that matchup, and I think they’re the more appealing fantasy team as well. Nico Collins and Joe Mixon were among the best in fantasy at their respective positions, and I think either (or both) can be selected with the prospect of two potential games.

Los Angeles Chargers

If you’re looking to go chalk, the Chargers would be the No. 4 team to target in the AFC. However, they don’t have a ton of high-value fantasy options. J.K. Dobbins has provided some value at times at running back, while Justin Herbert has had an efficient season.

Ladd McConkey is probably their top target for fantasy purposes. He was their clear No. 1 receiver, racking up a 25% target share for the year. He finished as at least a top-24 fantasy receiver in seven straight weeks to end the year, so he should be useful for as long as he’s around. He’s a strong target in builds where you’re stacking the Chiefs or Lions and simply need productivity in the Wild Card round.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The last two AFC squads are both underdogs of more than a touchdown in their respective first playoff games, so you should be wary of investing any heavy resources. The Steelers are the biggest underdogs of the entire weekend, and they’ll have to navigate a brutal matchup vs. the division-rival Ravens.

Baltimore has been a brutal matchup for running backs this season, which takes Najee Harris off the board for me. However, they have been very generous in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing passing attacks. That makes George Pickens another interesting target. He’ll likely only be around for one game, but he has some upside in that contest.

Denver Broncos

The Broncos are in a similar spot to the Steelers. They’re not quite as big of an underdog … but it’s pretty darn close.

Courtland Sutton stands out for Denver in the same way that George Pickens does for Pittsburgh. I think it’s unlikely that Denver plays more than one game, so I’m passing on most of their other options.

NFC Players to Target

Detroit Lions

The Lions are the current favorites to win the Super Bowl at +275 or better. They’ve got the best passing offense in the league via DVOA per play and have hung 31+ points now in five straight games. 

The issue with the Lions isn’t trusting them, or reserving some bench space for them in Round 1. It’s that they are going to be popular. Jahmyr Gibbs had a scorching end to the regular season, but the Lions are set to get David Montgomery back for the Divisional Round. That could cut into his workload. Fading Gibbs in Lions stacks is risky, but Montgomery has been just as good a TD producer in this offense when healthy and was more involved in the passing game before getting hurt. 

Either way, if I were starting Lions stacks with Gibbs, I’d likely look to differentiate in other ways down the lineup by potentially fading one or both of Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta. 

Another option is to just fade the RBs altogether and stack around Jared Goff and his receivers. There won’t be many Lions lineups to use this strategy and you have a plethora of high-upside options to choose from like LaPorta, Jameson Williams, and, of course, the Sun God himself, St. Brown. 

Of the receivers, Williams is likely my favorite option to include in any Lions stack. Via our Utilization Report, he’s seen target shares of at least 20% in six of his last seven games and still gets a massive chunk of the team's air yards. The Lions have so many options that people looking to stack three Lions will inevitably leave him out more than LaPorta (who is in the argument for the TE1 of the playoffs) and St. Brown. 

One last note on the No. 1 seed. If you’re stacking them and avoiding the Chiefs, I would consider stacking either the Chargers or Texans alongside them. The thinking is that one of those teams will get the first crack at knocking out the champs, and with this being a big-field GPP you need to play for the optimal scenarios for your build. 

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles didn’t have the greatest end to the regular season, but they still have a fantastic chance to make a run this season. They’re the fifth favorite at most sportsbooks to win the Super Bowl at around +700 and should be at full strength with Jalen Hurts set to return to practice this week. 

A lot of people will likely be viewing Hurts and Barkley as “either-or” options, but I don’t mind pairing the two at all. Philadelphia is a run-heavy team that can produce 10-minute drives when needed solely based on Hurts and Barkley carries. Further, the two accounted for 29 TDs between them, so you’ll have a great shot at getting exposure to all the scoring for the Eagles by starting with those two. 

Of course, A.J. Brown is also an option. He’s the third big wheel in this group, but I’d likely consider fading him IF starting with Hurts and Barkley. Most people will simply gravitate toward the big three, but DeVonta Smith and/or Dallas Goedert both have big-play ability and will be lower-owned. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are a very up-and-down team—don’t forget they lost to the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago. That said, they have the firepower to hang with anyone and were one of two teams to beat the Lions this season. 

Baker Mayfield is a near-lock for 2 TDs most weeks and can be paired with Mike Evans and/or Jalen McMillan for a supreme upside stack. I’d probably rather include Bucky Irving in any Buccaneer builds than use both WRs and the rookie does have some correlation with his QB, having broken several big plays as a receiver out of the backfield this season. Rachaad White is the uber-contrarian option and still has upside as a receiver given that the Bucs love his ability to pass block. 

I’d likely avoid the Buccaneers if you’re playing the Eagles (they’re on the same side of the draw), but they’re a solid target to pair with the Lions. Assuming they get past Washington they’d get you at least two rounds of production and would be great leverage vs. Eagles stacks, as the two would hook up in Round 2 if they both won their opening games. 

Los Angeles Rams

If I’m building lineups without Detroit, I’m 100% loading up on the Rams in their place. 

The Rams play in a dome vs. the Vikings in Round 1, and if they get past them will play in Detroit in Round 2, where they’ll have a chance to knock out the proverbial favorites and throw the CHOPionship on its head. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but Los Angeles has played Detroit extremely close in each of their last two meetings. 

Approaching them for drafts is fairly simple as well. Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams are musts and while I expect Nacua especially to be popular, the Rams being underdogs in Round 1 means that their ownership as a whole won’t be through the roof. Williams is one of my favorite RBs to target in general, as Blake Corum is out for the playoffs and Williams was already handling 20+ carries a game with Corum in the lineup. 

If you’re not filling out a three-man Rams stack with Matthew Stafford, then Demarcus Robinson has the kind of big-play ability that could prove vital should the Rams get into the Super Bowl. In that case, having a low-owned option like Robinson would help set your lineups apart for the final round. 

Minnesota Vikings 

I’m straight-up bearish on the Vikings doing much this postseason, as I think teams will be emulating the Lions' approach from Week 18, and doing as much as they can to disrupt Sam Darnold. 

Still, this team could easily get out of Round 1 (they’re actually -1.0 favorites), and has legit studs like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at receiver, players who can break the slate regardless of opponent. 

If you’re looking for a one-off play for Round 1, Addison would likely give you lots of leverage over teams that decide to stack Darnold and Jefferson making him a great contrarian target in my eyes. Sure, there will be teams out there who draft all three, but most people won’t be loading up on Vikings, making Addison the lower-owned receiver by a wide margin. 

Washington Commanders 

I love the Commanders' potential, but they face an insanely tough road to get to the Super Bowl. Still, I can’t say I don’t like them to pull off the upset vs. the Buccaneers and provide a lot of fantasy points for teams that load up on them in Round 1. 

Tampa Bay is a very Jekyll-and-Hyde team, and Jayden Daniels provides the kind of explosiveness needed to pull a rabbit out of a hat vs. an efficient offense like Tampa. I wouldn’t make single QB rosters with Daniels but he can pull your team through the first AND second rounds, even if they don’t make it any further. He’s also on the opposite side of the draw than Jared Goff, so a Goff/Daniels pairing at QB makes sense as there is a chance you'll have two QBs in that scenario for the Divisional and Conference Rounds. 

For a contrarian option, I also love the fact no one is talking about Austin Ekeler. He returned to action last week and took only 5 touches but has been explosive out of the backfield as a receiver this season, averaging right around 3.0 receptions and 30 yards per game. I think Ekeler will be used far more heavily this week vs. Tampa and would be an important part of any Commanders run in general. 

Green Bay Packers 

The Packers are the biggest underdog of the first round, but it’s hardly an impossible scenario. They’re just +4.5 underdogs on the road in Philly, and will take on an Eagles team whose starting QB has not been able to practice for two weeks. 

The Packers are my second-favorite NFC contrarian target after the Rams, but they do have some advantages if you’re building stacks with them. With Christian Watson out their target share will be condensed, which will make players like Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed more capable of carrying your team. Of course, they also have a true workhorse in Josh Jacobs, who would have every chance of being the top-scoring fantasy player of the playoffs if Green Bay were to get to the Super Bowl. 

They’re on the other side of the draw as the Lions, so don’t provide quite as much leverage as the Rams vs. the No. 1 seed, but certainly this team is talent-laden and its stars will likely carry the lowest ownership of any NFC team in the CHOPionship  

I think the Packers are a boom-or-bust sort of option for lineups. I’m fine completely fading them in lineups where I load up on Philly or a combo like Detroit/Washington, but wouldn’t fear stacking them either if I were intent on building a more contrarian lineup without the Lions or Eagles.

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