Week 12 Guillotine Leagues™ Strategy: Kenneth Walker Could Get You Chopped
Matt LaMarca released his start/sit strategy for Guillotine Leagues headed into Week 12, featuring players like Kenneth Walker, DK Metcalf and more.
We’re getting down to the nitty-gritty. In standard Guillotine Leagues™️, we’re down to just seven teams remaining. That means that there will only be 56 starting slots this week: seven at quarterback, seven at tight end, and 14 each at running back, wide receiver and flex. At this point, anyone who doesn’t reside in the top 10 at QB and TE and top 20 at RB and WR is basically off the table.
The weekly start/sit decisions have also become increasingly high stakes. Guys who were no-doubt starters at the beginning of the season are now worth putting under the microscope, since one bad performance can send you to the exit.
Just look at some of the names that were among last week’s most-chopped players: Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Ashton Jeanty at running back. Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown and DeVonta Smith at receiver. These are guys who have been slam dunks all season, but one down showing sent a lot of teams home.
Of course, that doesn’t have to be the case. Making strong decisions with the rest of your lineup can help mitigate a down performance from even your best players. After all, no player hurt teams more than Josh Jacobs this week, and his chop rate was still less than 25%.
That’s the focus of this piece. Each week, I’ll dive into a few players who carry more risk than their Week 12 ranking might suggest and highlight a few potential alternatives. These guys might not have the same big-game upside, but hopefully, they do provide an elevated floor.
Let’s dive in!
Guillotine Leagues™ Start/Sit Strategy For Week 12
Sit: Kenneth Walker at Titans
It’s difficult to look at a matchup vs. the Titans and not trust a starting running back. They’ve been poor against the run this season, ranking 26th in rush defense EPA and opposing runners typically see plenty of volume against them. The Titans are dead last with a scoring differential of -13.0 points per game, which leads to plenty of favorable game scripts for opposing RBs. As a result, they’ve allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to the position.
The problem with Walker is that he’s a starting running back in name only. He’s handled just 47% of the team’s rushing attempts this season, and he’s getting very few of the high-value touches. His target share sits at just 6% for the season, while he’s garnered just 33% of the short-yardage opportunities. That’s a brutal combination for fantasy purposes.
Walker is coming off a strong showing last week vs. a significantly tougher defense, finishing with 20.1 PPR points vs. the Rams. However, that was his first time cracking double figures since all the way back in Week 4. It was his first finish inside the top 25 since Week 3, and that gives him too low a floor for this point in the season.
Even if Walker is hyper-productive with his carries, he’s still going to need to score a touchdown to return value. He managed to do it last week, but that was his first score in basically two months. We’ve seen the Seahawks score plenty of points in that stretch, so there’s no guarantee this matchup will get Walker back into the paint. I’d rather roll the dice on someone with a stronger workload.
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Start: Sean Tucker at Rams
It appears as though the Buccaneers have finally grown tired of Rachaad White averaging less than four yards per carry as their starting runner. Frankly, it’s about time. White brings something to the table as a pass catcher out of the backfield, but he has looked overmatched every time the team asks him to take on a full-time role. He averaged less than four yards per carry in his first two seasons, and in his first five starts this year, he averaged just 3.4 yards per attempt.
White still earned the start in Week 11, but it was Sean Tucker who carried the load vs. the Patriots. He handled 59% of the team’s rushing attempts, including all of the carries from inside the 5. He responded with a huge performance, tallying more than 100 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground and adding a third score through the air.
The production isn’t fluky. Tucker has averaged 4.6 yards per attempt this season, and he was above 6.0 yards per carry last year. Tucker will have to navigate a tough matchup vs. the Rams, but as Walker proved last week, succeeding against the Rams is not impossible.
Sit: DK Metcalf at Bears
The big news in Pittsburgh involves the injury to QB Aaron Rodgers. He suffered a fractured left wrist last week vs. the Bengals, but it won’t require surgery. He will reportedly practice in some capacity on Thursday and is “pushing to play” this week vs. the Bears.
Playing a receiver tied to a banged-up Rodgers sounds like an absolute nightmare. Rodgers has already been one of the worst starting QBs in football this season. He ranks 32nd at the position in PFF grade, and he’s 25th at the position in fantasy points per game. He’s getting rid of the ball quicker than any quarterback in football, and no one has averaged fewer intended air yards per attempt.
Now, let’s add a fractured left wrist to the equation. If he’s looking to avoid getting hit even more than he already is, it’s going to be even fewer opportunities to push the ball downfield to Metcalf.
Metcalf has also now failed to crack double-digit PPR points in four of his past five games. That includes last week, despite facing a horrendous Bengals’ defense in an awesome game script.
This week’s matchup vs. the Bears looks friendly on paper, but their defense could receive a massive upgrade. Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon have both had their 21-day practice windows opened, and while neither is a lock to return to the lineup, it appears as though they’ll at least have a chance to suit up. Johnson, in particular, is one of the league’s best cornerbacks, so Metcalf could have a long afternoon if he’s matched up against him. Add it all up, and there’s simply too much risk here.
Start: Michael Wilson vs. Jaguars
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Jacoby Brissett doesn’t throw 57 passes again this week. He almost certainly won’t complete 47 of those, like he did vs. the 49ers.
Still, Brissett continues to show why he’s one of the best backup quarterbacks in football. He’s averaged 7.68 adjusted yards per attempt as a passer, and he’s done a good job at getting the ball in the hands of his playmakers.
Trey McBride is the Cardinals' clear-cut No. 1 option, and the gap between him and the rest of the tight end position is massive for fantasy purposes. But Wilson moved into the No. 2 spot with Marvin Harrison Jr. out of the lineup last week, and he should maintain that role vs. the Jaguars.
I was skeptical of Wilson’s upside last week. After all, he’s had plenty of snaps and routes this season; he just simply hasn’t earned many targets. That changed with Harrison on the sidelines. He posted a massive 33% target share, and he was targeted on 38% of his routes run. Those are absolutely elite figures.
Even if the Cardinals throw the ball significantly less this week, Wilson should still be looking at close to double-digit targets. That is very valuable in PPR formats like Guillotine Leagues.
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