Welcome to Week 7, Guillotine Leaguers!

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding.

Bye week players have littered our "10 Most-Chopped Players" section for three weeks. Undboutedly, you've seen the impact of bye weeks in your Guillotine Leagues™️.

In August, I urged you to show caution before drafting players with early bye weeks. Both in FantasyLife articles and on the CHOP Podcast, I talked about the added cost you needed to assign to early-bye players.

Guillotine Leagues™ Waiver Wire Bidding Advice for Week 7

Based on the feedback I get from y'all, my preseason Guillotine Leagues™️ rankings always look "weird" or "inaccurate" or "did you contract mumps?" compared to standard rankings because of how much weight I place on bye weeks.

Then, once the regular season starts, I'm assigning recommended prices for free agents, I continue to show financial caution about bidding for players with looming bye weeks. And that'll continue happening for a few more weeks.

Finally, as we enter Week 7, we can start to flip the narrative. Chopped players who have already played their bye week are extra valuable. Players from Atlanta, Chicago, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Houston and Minnesota are worth extra FAAB. Right now, while our rosters are still pretty thin, I'd target a 10-20% bump for those players, turning a $30 bid into a $35 bid. Maybe more, depending on your level of need.

As one example, and a preview of coming attractions, Justin Jefferson is among the most chopped players this week. Again, bye weeks are lethal. And, I'll pay more for Jefferson because he's past his bye (although I've got other concerns, which you'll read about).

If you enjoy this article, be sure to listen to the CHOP Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decisions.

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Self-Evaluation

Over the course of this story, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or minor injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good player who can sustain you for months.  The key is to know when to push in your chips.

Broad Bidding Strategies

There’s no single way to win a Guillotine League. But I can safely say, the clearest path to a Guillotine League championship is to survive until mid-season and have a lot of FAAB left. In short, save your FAAB. Except for the desperate, your goal is to conserve cash.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

• Elite players:  These are guys who’ll be On your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Max your bidding on elite players at $200. No more, unless you’re truly desperate.
• Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. $10-$20. Be careful here. Throwing down $40 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
• Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$5.

The 10 Most-Chopped Players in Week 7

10. CLE RB Quinshon Judkins (12.5% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 65/100
• Upcoming schedule: MIA; @NE; BYE
• Last week's median price: $205
• End-game player: NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $75
• Note: Quinshon Judkins is in a smash spot for this week against Miami, but after that he faces a surprisingly tough Patriots run defense that's allowed the second-fewest rushing yards and just 2 rushing touchdowns. Judkins isn't getting much use use in the passing game, averaging just 1.8 receptions per game. That creates some sneaky downside for Judkins, just like we saw last week when he chipped in zero receiving points and ended up on this list.

9. BUF RB James Cook (12.6% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 78/100
• Upcoming schedule: BYE; @CAR; KC
• Last week's median price: $303
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $201
• Note: I don't love adding players on their bye week, but maybe that'll help drive James Cook's price to sane levels. Even with Ty Johnson and Ray Davis getting a frustrating amount of work on the season, Cook has been a reliable, productive player. Very importantly, Cook is getting goal-line carries—not a given considering his quarterback. He's scored 4 touchdowns from inside the two-yard line. He remains a high-value, end-game player.

8. BUF QB Josh Allen (13% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: NA
• Upcoming schedule: BYE; @CAR; KC
• Last week's median price: $257
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $85
• Note: I'm shocked to see Josh Allen on this list, considering his two passing touchdowns and 42 rushing yards on Monday night. Regular readers know I rarely drop meaningful money on quarterbacks or players heading into a bye week. I typically max out at about $20 for any passer. But Allen's an edge case because of his high upside and floor, so I'm willing to raise the stakes.

7. BUF TE Dalton Kincaid (13.1% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 72/100
• Upcoming schedule: BYE; @CAR; KC
• Last week's median price: $33
• End-game player: NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $30
• Note: Monday night's deactivation caught people off guard, and I suspect some people didn't realize he wasn't playing. But their lack of attention gives you a chance at a shockingly solid player at a position of need. In four of his five games, Dalton Kincaid has posted a utilization score north of 63, dramatically (finally!) outpacing Dawson Knox. Presumably, he'll come out of next week's bye fully healthy, with a great opportunity against a Carolina defense that's allowed the second-most PPR points to tight ends.

6. PHI RB Saquon Barkley (13.2% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 83/100
• Upcoming schedule: @MIN; NYG; BYE
• Last week's median price: $350
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $150
• Note: Yes, it's Saquon Barkley. But he's only RB14 in PPR scoring. I'm not breaking the bank for him, even though this might be a buy-low moment. Among starting running backs (50+ carries), here's some eye-opening rankings:
  • Yards: 22nd
  • Yards per carry: 30th
  • Yards before contact: 23rd
  • Yards after contact: 30th
  • Avoided tackle rate: 31st

That doesn't feel like the Saquon Barkley we all know. No part of his game is really clicking. He's failed to top 58 rushing yards in four straight. He's averaging just 23 receiving yards per game. His next two matchups, Vikings and Giants, are middle-of-the pack run defenses.

5. NYJ RB Breece Hall (13.3% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 73/100
• Upcoming schedule: CAR; @CIN; BYE
• Last week's median price: $189
• End-game player: NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $45
• Note:  Breece Hall is a talented back with a high level of utilization, including through the air. On paper, he should be a very safe Guillotine asset. But the Jets offense is so woefully inconsistent that he's simply not as dependable as he should be. He hasn't found the end zone yet, a symptom of his meh offense. The Jets have had the ball inside the five-yard line 10 times, and he's only gotten 2 carries (for -3 yards). Yuck. If Garrett Wilson misses time (as expected), it leaves the Jets completely Hall dependent, and defenses will play specifically to stop Hall, which worries me.

4. MIN WR Justin Jefferson (13.4% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 84/100
• Upcoming schedule: PHI; @LAC; @DET
• Last week's median price: $251
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $155
• Note: I love that Justin Jefferson's bye is in the rear-view mirror, but he's a thornier bid than it may appear. I'm worried about J.J. McCarthy's learning curve. In McCarthy's Week 1 & 2 starts, Kevin O'Connell gave him only 20 and 21 passes. At that point, Jefferson was WR37 in targets. There's a real possibility that Jefferson languishes while McCarthy further adapts to the NFL. In Guillotine Leagues, we don't have the luxury of waiting a month for McCarthy to start slinging 35 balls a game. And, what if McCarthy doesn't live up to expectations?

3. NYJ Garrett Wilson (13.8% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 83/100
• Upcoming schedule: CAR; @CIN; BYE
• Last week's median price: $175
• End-game player: NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $30
• Note: Wilson's hyperextended knee and looming bye simplifies this bid. Despite his outstanding individual play, everything else in New York is working against him, including a periodically non-functional passer, Justin Fields. Wilson is expected to miss the next two games and come back after the Jets' Week 9 bye.

2. DET RB Jahmyr Gibbs (13.9% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 82/100
• Upcoming schedule: TB; BYE; MIN
• Last week's median price: $401
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $245
• Note: This is a rare opportunity to get an elite player without any injury concerns. Even with all the competition for balls in Detroit, Jahmyr Gibbs is the one Lion who always gets fed, as evidenced by his sexy 82 Utilization Score. His schedule is the only reason to show concern. The Vita Vea-led Bucs are always a tough run defense. Only one player has topped 54 rushing yards against Tampa. Fortunately, the Bucs having given up the third-most receptions to the position, and Gibbs can catch. Note his Week 8 bye.

1. LAR WR Puka Nacua (19.5% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 91/100
• Upcoming schedule: @JAC; BYE; NO
• Last week's median price: $425
• End game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $245
• Note: Puka Nacua was knocked out of last week's game with an ankle injury that Sean McVay describes as "day-to-day." With the looming bye week after they play the Jaguars in London in Week 7, I assume he'll miss this week's game and come back in Week 9 to face the Saints. Without the injury and bye, we'd be talking about a possible budget-busting opportunity for a sure-fire, end-game player—maybe the single best player. I'm still recommending a strong price for Nacua, but assuming we'll get zero points for two weeks, I'll still keep my bid in the range of quasi-sanity.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for Guillotine usage.  They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

NYG QB Jaxson Dart—Charch recommends $0. 
Almost always, I use this area to advocate for free agents upon whom you should drop some FAAB. But in the unique case of Dart, I'm listing him here as a cautionary warning not to overspend on him. He was great last Thursday against the Eagles, so there's going to be temptation to spend some legit cash on him.

First, I'll note that mobile quarterbacks have two ways to keep you alive, ground and air production. Even someone as inconsistent as Justin Fields was QB2, QB4 and QB7 in his three full games before Sunday morning's meltdown (QB30 out of 30).

But here's the catch with Dart: This week, he's playing the same Denver defense that just hammered Fields. Incredibly, the Broncos are allowing 7 (!) quarterback rushing yards per game, despite facing Fields, Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts. And after the Broncos, the Giants will face the Eagles and 49ers, both good defenses.

If you pick up Dart, you're probably shelving him for three weeks—an eternity in Guillotine Leagues. Yes, I know he just performed well against the Eagles last week, but I expect the Eagles to respond well to a second crack at the rookie.

Also, a note to to Mr. and Mrs. Dart: If you're going to name your kid something cool, like "Jaxson" with an "X," how about not including a random, presumably silent, "S" after the "X?"Also, a note to to Mr. and Mrs. Dart: If you're going to name your kid something cool, like "Jaxson" with an "X," how about not including a random, presumably silent, "S" after the "X?" As it's spelled, it should be pronounced JaxSsssssson. As it's spelled, it should be pronounced JaxSsssssson.

LAC RB Kimani Vidal – Charch recommends $65
Vidal's probably already been scooped up, but many people believed the (totally inaccurate!) reports that Hassan Haskins would be Jim Harbaugh's lead back—in part because of their Michigan connection. Instead, Vidal dominated the backfield and roasted Miami. Vidal will start at least three more games before Omarion Hamption is eligible to come off IR. And some are speculating Hampton will miss five more games, stretching to the team's Week 12 bye. He easily passed the eye test as the Chargers starter.

ARI RB Bam Knight– Charch recommends $10
Someone likely already picked up Knight after his starter's status leaked last week, but if he's available he can help your team for three more games until Trey Benson returns from IR. Emari Demercado's ankle injury makes it a thin depth chart, with Knight getting most of the rushing work. Michael Carter looks like the preferred pass-catching back, which lowers Knight's floor. Working strongly against Knight is a tough upcoming game against the Packers, followed by a bye week.

TEN RB Tyjae Spears—Charch recommends $5
I know, nobody wants to add Titans right now, and fairly so. But notably, last week, with Tennessee trailing throughout the entire game—a not uncommon occurrence—Spears led Tony Pollard in snaps, targets, routes, long down-and-distance snaps and he ran for 6.2 yards per carry. Spears looked good; Pollard looked tired, perhaps weighed down by his starter's role through the first month of the season.

LAR WR Jordan Whittington—Charch recommends $1
Nacua could miss this week's game with an ankle injury (especially with international travel and a bye week immediately thereafter), which would put Whittington on the field in a full-time capacity. Last week, Whittington led the Rams in snaps and ran only two fewer routes than Davante Adams. His opponent on Sunday, Jacksonville, has allowed the third-most passing yards to wideouts, 166 per game.

NE WR Kayshon Boutte—Charch recommends $5
Nobody's beat the drum for Boutte more than me, but I'm ready to forgive you for dropping him from your Guillotine roster after three consecutive dud games. He exploded last week, and could go back-to-back with an easy game against the Titans. They've allowed the 8th-most fantasy points to wideouts. Boutte leads the team in snaps and routes—far more than Stefon Diggs. If you like what you're seeing from Drake Maye—and who doesn't?—you might want to invest a few bucks into the New England receiver who is on the field the most.

1. TB WRs Tez Johnson and Sterling Shepard—Charch recommends $1
   The Bucs wide receivers will get an extra day to heal, but Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka all look dicey to play Monday in a presumed shootout against Detroit. The Lions' secondary is equally battered with injuries to Terrion Arnold, Avonte Maddox, D.J. Reed, Ennis Rakestraw and a suspension for star safety Brian Branch. It's a great opportunity for Johnson and Shepard as short-term starters. Last week, three different Chiefs receivers posted solid games against the short-handed Lions.

LAC TE Oronde Gadsden—Charch recommends $1
There was worry about whether Gadsden would retain his high levels of usage when Will Dissly returned. Those concerns were unfounded. The rookie dominated Dissly, posting a 27% route share and 8 targets, including an end zone try. Basically, Gadsden is a big wideout playing tight end. He lines up in the slot or wide more than inline. Next week, he'll face an Indy team that's allowed the 10th-most yards to tight ends.

TB TE Cade Otton—Charch recommends $5
Earlier, I mentioned Tez Johnson and Shepard as expected fill-ins for the battered Tampa wide receivers. Also, Otton should see a continuing uptick in usage. Over the past two weeks, he's caught 9 passes for 132 yards.  Last year, Evans and Godwin missed Weeks 6-11 and Otton exploded, turning into TE2 over that stretch, averaging 17 PPR points per game.

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