Welcome to Week 8, Guillotine Leaguers!

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your Guillotine Leagues™️ bidding.

It's only mid-October, so I know it feels premature to be discussing your "end-game" roster. For those new to the column, "end game" is my term for Championship-level players that can power your Guillotine team in December.

We're seven weeks into the season, and roster anxiety starts setting in for Guillotine Leagues™️ managers. You've survived seven often-stressful chops and you're starting fantasizing about how your roster will look in the late stages of the season.

At this time of year, people will see me at the car wash or the dog groomer and ask, "Charch, how many end-game players should I have at this point of the Guillotine season? Also, should I be worried about this lump on my elbow?"

Guillotine Leagues™ Waiver Wire Bidding Advice for Week 8

If you're alive in December, you'll need all eight rosters spots to be filled with "end-game" players. It's impossible to have all eight already, so don't panic. If you're saving your FAAB, you'll be adding multiple end-game players in a single week, later in the year.

How many end-game players should you have at this point, Week 8? Ideally three or four. That's enough that you're getting dependable fantasy points every week, avoiding a preponderance of heartburn on Monday nights. But also, hopefully you haven't paid "end-game" prices for those guy.

Realistically, you've probably spent some money at this point. But I hope you're still sitting on at least $750 in remaining FAAB.

If you're under $500, you need to reign in your spending significantly and hope to survive a few weeks with cheap acquisitions. Down the road, you're going to need every dollar. And if you're under $500, I hope you've got multiple end-game players already on your roster.

As always, be sure to listen to the CHOP Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.

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Self-Evaluation

Over the course of this story, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.

Broad Bidding Strategies

There’s no single way to win a Guillotine League. But I can safely say, the clearest path to a Guillotine League championship is to hoard FAAB. Except for the truly desperate, each week, your goal is to conserve cash.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

• Elite players:  These are guys who’ll be in your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting a new league today. Max your bidding on elite players at $200-$250. No more, unless you’re staring at a likely chopping this week.
• Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. $10-$20. Be careful here. Throwing down $30 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
• Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $1-$5.

The 10 Most Chopped Players in Week 8

I hope you didn't need points from anyone other than Jahmyr Gibbs on Monday night. The two games on Monday night provided four of the 10 most-chopped players! Duds abounded, and heads were chopped. Side note, Gibbs is on a whole different planet from every other runner, even Bijan Robinson, his closest peer.

10. TB QB Baker Mayfield (13% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: N/A
• Upcoming schedule: @NO; BYE; NE
• Last week's median price: $51
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $25
• Note: This might be the cheapest price you'll pay for Baker Mayfield all year. He's coming off his worst game of the season, he just lost Mike Evans, and he's got a bye week looming. But even with those disadvantages, Mayfield is a fringe end-game passer and would be a terrific second quarterback on your team.

9. DET WR Jameson Williams (13.4% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 49/100 <- Yuck
• Upcoming schedule: BYE; MIN; @WAS;
• Last week's median price: $30
• End-game player: NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $-1
• Note: I'll pay another owner to take Jameson Williams. He's the embodiment of everything you don't want in a Guillotine League player. Once a month he gives you a spike game, surrounded by three utter duds, like Monday night. Through seven games, Williams has finishes of WR61, WR54, WR59, WR89 and WR101. Brutal! If you roster Williams, you are playing with fire.

8. CHI WR Rome Odunze (13.4% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 72/100
• Upcoming schedule: @BAL; @CIN; NYG;
• Last week's median price: $150
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $150
• Note: This is a rare chance to get an alpha receiver on an emerging offense. Ben Johnson is tangibly improving the Bears and Rome Odunze is the trigger man for the entire offense. Yes, there's a lot of other Chicago receiving options, but Odunze's dominating in every meaningful usage category: snaps, routes, targets, ADOT, air yards … you name it. His near-term schedule looks favorable and Chicago has already passed its bye week.

7. JAX WR Brian Thomas (13.6% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 69/100
• Upcoming schedule: BYE; @LV; @HOU
• Last week's median price: $132
• End-game player: NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $30
• Note: The bye week will probably help Brian Thomas get through his many nagging injuries, and hopefully that'll spark a reversal for one of 2025's most disappointing players. But more than likely, Liam Coen continues to use a deep bench of receivers, including Dyami Brown and Parker Washington, which will water down Thomas' week-to-week reliability.

6. LAR WR Puka Nacua (13.8% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 91/100
• Upcoming schedule: BYE; NO; @SF
• Last week's median price: $222
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $275
• Note: This is a rare chance to get, arguably, the single most valuable Guillotine asset. Assuming you can survive Nacua's bye this week with other players, you'll certainly want to bid on Nacua. The question is, how much? You'll note, last week, Nacua went for only $222—likely due to his ankle injury and the Week 8 bye. One week later, I think you'll need to pay more. He's expected to return next week for a favorable matchup with New Orleans. You've saved FAAB for moments like these.

5. HOU WR Nico Collins (14.3% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 68/100
• Upcoming schedule: SF; DEN; JAX
• Last week's median price: $201
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $105
• Note:  This one is thorny. At the moment, we don't know the status of Nico Collins' concussion and I worry he won't clear the protocol in a short week. And if he misses this week's game, then he faces the Broncos and Pat Surtain. That's a defense that's allowing the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Denver has allowed only one touchdown to a wideout this year! And, as good as Nico is, the Houston offense is a major bummer, with a ton of inconsistencies. Most of the blame falls on an awful offensive line that ranks 29th in Pass Block Win Rate and 28th in Run Block Win Rate.

4. DET TE Sam LaPorta (14.7% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 68/100
• Upcoming schedule: BYE; MIN; @WAS
• Last week's median price: $57
• End-game player: NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $15
• Note: Aside from Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown, there's nobody you can really trust in the Lions offense. Detroit is plagued by an overabundance of offensive talent, and tertiary guys like Sam LaPorta end up being very inconsistent. LaPorta goes on bye, and then faces a tough Minnesota defense that's held opposing No. 1 tight ends to under 8 PPR points in five of six games.

3. CHI QB Caleb Williams (15.4% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: N/A
• Upcoming schedule: @BAL; @CIN; NYG
• Last week's median price: $19
• End-game player: NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $5
• Note: At most, there's 11 teams left in your Guillotine League. There's more than 11 viable Guillotine quarterbacks. That means, pretty much every team has a decent one. While I love the overall direction of the Chicago offense, I don't see Williams as an end-game player. But he's a solid second quarterback for your roster, particularly if your starting quarterback still has a bye week ahead.

2. LV RB Ashton Jeanty (16.4% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 76/100
• Upcoming schedule: BYE; JAX; @DEN;
• Last week's median price: $240
• End-game player: NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $110
• Note: For all the hype and hoopla Ashton Jeanty received as the top RB of this rookie class, he has yet to live up to the advanced billing.  The Raiders offense is a mess, 31st in scoring, just ahead of the woeful Tennessee Titans. Jeanty is just 12th in fantasy points scored and 14th in rushing yards on the season. The talent is still there, but starting with the bye it's hard to spend much on him. 

1. Saquon Barkley (17.1% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 80/100
• Upcoming schedule: NYG; BYE; @GB
• Last week's median price: $313
• End game player: NO … sadly, inexplicably.
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $85
• Note: It's Saquon Barkley's fourth appearance in the last five weeks, a staggering drop from last year's version. Saquon is trailing Tony Pollard and Jacory Croskey-Merritt in rushing yards, which begins to tell the story. Barkley has some beatable matchups rest of season, but it's getting harder to trust him as a player taking you to the end of the season.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional/boring league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for Guillotine Leagues usage.  They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

CHI RB Kyle Monangai—Charch recommends $10
Is Ben Johnson developing Chicago's version of a Gibbs-Montgomery-style 1-2 punch?  Kyle Monangai's 15 touches dramatically outpaces anything we've seen before now. D'Andre Swift is improving, so I don't expect to see Monangai take over the lead role, but like David Montgomery, he could turn into a spot Guillotine starter and a high-end handcuff. Monangai posted a career-high 39% rush share against the Saints last week, and he gets a favorable matchup with Baltimore this week. Remember Week 3, when Monty posted 164 yards against the Ravens?

NO RB Devin Neal–Charch recommends $1
Sadly, Kendre Miller's season is over, just as he was starting to look like the best runner in New Orleans. Enter Devin Neal as the primary backup to Alvin Kamara … and future starter? I'm not shoveling dirt on Kamara's grave, but he doesn't look like the same guy. Kamara hasn't topped 70 rushing yards this year. He hasn't scored since Week 1. Over the past five weeks, Kamara is averaging a horrific 3.2 yards per carry and ranks 29th in yards after contact. Also disappointing, his receiving has withered, averaging just 18 receiving yards per game. Enter Neal, a shifty, elusive runner with terrific footwork. And he can catch. If you've got the luxury of a free roster spot, Neal's got long-term upside.

KC RB Brashard Smith—Charch recommends $5
Thanks to a Kareem Hunt injury and a blowout win, Brashard Smith is coming off career highs in every category. Even if Hunt is able to return (take your time, Kareem!), he's been disappointing, and Smith might be ready for extended play. Smith has the best hands of any Chiefs runner, and it was promising to see his 5 receptions on 5 targets last week.

TB WR Tez Johnson—Charch recommends $20
With Evans' season-ending (hopefully not career-ending) injury on Monday night, Tez Johnson gets vaulted into a prime position for a massive uptick in usage. The 7th-round rookie has the build of damp Kleenex, but damn, he's fun. His touchdown on Monday showed you everything you need to know about Tez: He's a waterbug, with jukes, hops, speed and determination. He was pelted with 9 targets on Monday, proving that Baker Mayfield's got faith in the kid.

NE WR Kayshon Boutte—Charch recommends $5
Kayshon Boutte was almost certainly dropped after a lengthy dry spell between Weeks 3-5. But since then, he's posted 3 touchdowns and remains the Patriots' leading receiver in snaps and routes run, even over Stefon Diggs. Everyone wants a part of the Drake Maye passing offense, and Boutte is he most viable Patriot you could pick up. The Patriots just finished a three-game road stretch (3-0!) and will play three of the next four at home.

LAC TE Oronde Gadsden—Charch recommends $20
Congrats if you nabbed Gadsden before his breakout performance last Sunday, a 164-yard tour de force that will likely take years for him to equal. As a measure, Travis Kelce has topped 164 yards just three times in his 13-year career. Gadsden looks like a major factor in the Chargers offense, with a 67% route share over the past month. And he's got the fourth-longest ADOT among all tight ends, 8.2 yards. Averaging 4 yards of cushion and a healthy 5.3 yards after the catch makes Gadsden an appealing option. But be aware, specifically in Guillotine Leagues, there's danger here because Justin Herbert has an abundance of weapons and some games the ball simply won't go Gadsden's way. Even someone as talented as Ladd McConkey hasn't been a consistent producer in the Los Angeles offense.

CHI TE Colston Loveland—Charch recommends $0
Cole Kmet left last Sunday's game with a back injury. If that injury keeps him out of future games, it opens the door for Colston Loveland to get starters' minutes. Loveland has been a non-factor to this point because of a hip injury and a timeshare with Kmet (and to a degree, Luther Burden). The 10th-overall pick in the draft could finally get enough playing time to kickstart his career.

NO TE Juwan Johnson – Charch recommends $5
Reports of Johnson's demise (including by me) may have been premature. Yes, the return to health of Foster Moreau and Taysom Hill is a concern. But Johnson is simply a much better receiver than those guys, and he remains a key part of the Saints offense. He labored with an ankle injury for a couple weeks, but finally healthy last week, he posted an impressive 76-yard effort. Johnson saw a 24% target share last week, his best in a month.

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