I've said a lot of stupid things in my life.

For example, I once told people that I thought QB Tom Brandstater would be the next Tom Brady.

Don't remember who Brandstater is?

Exactly.

The Broncos drafted him in the sixth round of the 2009 draft, and he ultimately played just one game in the NFL (for the 2011 Rams): Week 17, fourth quarter, two pass attempts, both incomplete.

I'm a moron. A full-blown George Costanza.

Here's why I'm saying this: What I'm about to tell you is probably stupid. I know it. Still, I kind of believe it.

Breaking Down 2025 NFL Draft Rumors

Here's the stupid thing: At this time of year, I think it's best to ignore almost every NFL draft rumor you hear.

If a rumor has actual substance behind it, then it will probably reveal itself in sharp mocks and the betting market.

And in that case, it's not really a rumor: It's actionable information.

When I'm putting together a mock, I try as hard as I can to ignore rumors and focus only on what I see in other sharp mocks and the betting markets and what I read and hear from a few trusted draft gurus and national and beat reporters.

And that mindset has served me well.

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Over the past six years (since I started submitting mocks in competitions), I’m the No. 2 mocker for accuracy, and I'm a lifetime 484-424 (+102.6 units) betting on the draft. Subscribe to our free Betting Life Newsletter for regular guidance, best bets, and more.

Last year, I was No. 5 in mock draft accuracy … but I got a little too cute in my final mock, I deviated from my process, and I gave too much weight to a couple of rumors.

And that cost me: If I had submitted my "ignore the rumors" mock, I would've been No. 1.

So, you know, this year I'm doing my best to ignore NFL draft rumors.

That said … I'm only human.

Here are three NFL draft "rumors" I increasingly believe. 

All odds referenced are via DraftKings unless otherwise stated.

QB Shedeur Sanders Will Fall Down the Board

Entering draft season, Sanders (Colorado) was favored to be the No. 1 pick.

Now, QB Cam Ward (Miami) is all but guaranteed to go No. 1 (-20000).

What about the Browns and Giants at Nos. 2-3?

Both teams have veteran stopgap QBs (Joe Flacco for the Browns, Russell Wilson for the Giants), and so they look like legitimate candidates to take a "QB of the future" in the top three if an eligible option is available.

Yet WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado) is favored to go No. 2 (-350), and EDGE Abdul Carter (Penn State) is expected to go No. 3 (-300).

And that's despite the fact that both teams have extensively evaluated Sanders via his showcase and private meetings and workouts.

Think about this: Sanders entered the evaluation process as the frontrunner to be the top pick in the class. The teams with the first three picks all need long-term QBs. And yet Sanders now looks unlikely to go in the top three.

The NFL seems to be saying that Sanders is not a premium player.

Indeed, to go in the top five, he's only +275, which comes out to just a 26.7% implied probability (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).

And the under on his draft position prop of 8.5 is +220 (31.3%). Based on the market, Sanders doesn't have even a third of a chance to go in the top eight.

What about the Saints at No. 9?

They are the frontrunners (+125) to select him, and they're -140 to take a QB with their first selection … but Daniel Jeremiah recently said on Move the Sticks that he expects Ward to be the only QB in the class who is his team's first pick—so the inference is that if Sanders does happen to go to the Saints it won't be at No. 9.

And Jeremiah additionally said this: “I won't say it's a rumor. It's a fact. In talking with teams … there are a lot of teams out there who think Cam Ward is the only first-round quarterback.”

Albert Breer has said something similar in a recent "NFL Takeaways" column, specifically about Sanders: “I’m having a really hard time finding coaches or scouts who believe Sanders is a first-round talent.”

And Times-Picayune writer Jeff Duncan said this on a recent episode of Saints Insider: “I have talked to people that say Shedeur Sanders is not going to be under consideration at 9. … Now I don't know if that means no quarterbacks at 9, but I think at least in particular him.”

And what happens if Sanders gets past the Saints at No. 9?

After the Saints, there's not a team that needs a QB until the Steelers at No. 21.

In my most recent mock draft (released last week), I had Sanders going to the Browns at No. 2, because that makes (or made) sense to me: The Browns need a long-term QB, they have the No. 2 pick, and Sanders is probably the No. 2 QB on their board. Boom. Easy.

Easy … unless the team doesn't believe Sanders is worthy of going in the top five.

And it seems like the Browns and the NFL are of that belief.

I don't know where I'm going to have Sanders slotted in my final mock.

But right now, I expect him to be outside of my top five and maybe even my top 10.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Shedeur Sanders

Will Campbell Is the No. 1 OT Ahead of Armand Membou

When draft season started, Campbell (LSU) was the consensus No. 1 OT in mocks and the market, but then the Membou (Missouri) hype kicked in, and entering April, he for a brief time was the top OL, but now Campbell has reclaimed his initial spot.

Here are their odds to be the first OL selected.

• Will Campbell: -240
• Armand Membou: +185

In my mind, Campbell should be the No. 1 OT. 

Both Campbell and Membou are young (21 years old), but Campbell is more pedigreed (five recruitment stars, first-team All-American) while Membou is the superior athlete. Both have a good shot at being selected in the top 10.

But Campbell has a shot to play at LT, and if that doesn't work out for him (primarily because of his short, sub-33-inch arms), then he can probably be a strong LG. Campbell has technique and versatility.

Membou, though, profiles primarily (and maybe only?) at RT—and the Jets are the only team in the top 10 with a clear need at RT.

Campbell is -225 to go No. 4 to the Patriots, who have needs all along the OL. If he doesn't go there, Campbell could go to the Jaguars or Raiders at Nos. 5 & 6. He could even go ahead of Membou to the Jets at No. 7 if both players are available.

But Membou's ceiling is probably the Jets at No. 7.

In 80% of recent sharp mocks I've surveyed, Campbell goes ahead of Membou. I think his -240 odds to be the No. 1 OL in the class are justified.

Membou might be the better overall pro when their careers are over. He probably has the higher upside. But I think Campbell's versatility will give him the edge in terms of draft position.

Thor's Offensive Tackle Rankings: Membou is No. 1

The Raiders Want RB Ashton Jeanty at No. 6

Jeanty (Boise State) has been slotted to the Raiders at No. 6 in the supermajority of mocks for at least the past month, and the market agrees: -125 are the odds for Jeanty to go No. 6 and for the Raiders to select him.

In an ideal world, does this make sense?

No.

As I recently said on an episode of The Favorites, the NFL might be overvaluing Jeanty.

I am aware that I'm (yet again) saying something that's probably stupid: But Jeanty entered college as a three-star recruit. He didn't play at a powerhouse program. He didn't test at the combine or his pro day. He's not even 5-9, and he's not built like an obvious workhorse at 211 lbs.

Those are a lot of non-green flags.

If Jeanty has an acceptable-but-unexceptional career, we might look back and say, “You know what? Maybe it didn't make sense for a team to draft an unpedigreed small-ish RB from a modest program at No. 6.”

And that could especially be the case given how strong this class is overall at RB. Why take a runner at No. 6 when you can go OL in Round 1 and then come back in Round 2 with RB? 

But in general, this is a weak class, which means that many teams probably view Jeanty as a top-five (and maybe top-three) player overall.

And even though Jeanty plays RB, it's hard to fault a team for taking a top-three player at No. 6, particularly when that player is at a position of need—and the Raiders need RB.

It's easy to imagine HC Pete Carroll and OC Chip Kelly wanting to build an offense around Jeanty, who was objectively awesome in college. 

Last year, Jeanty put up 2,739 yards and 30 TDs in 14 games, earned unanimous first-team All-American recognition, and won the Maxwell and Doak Walker Awards as the best all-around player and top RB in the nation.

I know I just said that teams might be overvaluing him, but I get why they would: He has the potential to be great in the NFL.

And that's why I buy fully that the Raiders will select Jeanty at No. 6.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Ashton Jeanty

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