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2025 NFL Mock Draft: Shedeur Sanders Falls to Steelers In Freedman's Final Mock
Matthew Freedman releases his final 2025 NFL Mock Draft ahead of tonight's Round 1 coverage, highlighting risers, fallers, and more.
It's finally Day 1 of the draft, which means it's time to publish my official final 2025 NFL mock draft of the season.
For all previous 21 versions, check out my Fantasy Life author page as well as our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Hub and the Fantasy Life Newsletter, the Saturday editions of which are now dedicated to the draft.
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Over the past six years (since I started submitting mocks in competitions), I’m the No. 2 mocker for accuracy, and I'm a lifetime 484-424 (+102.6 units) betting on the draft. Subscribe to our free Betting Life Newsletter for regular guidance, best bets, and more.
2025 Mock Draft Methodology
Here's an outline of my mock process.
- Identify the 32 players most likely to go in Round 1.
- Order players correctly within their position groups.
- Match teams with positions of need.
- Attempt to mock players within their likely draft ranges.
No trades. I thought about projecting a couple, but then I thought better of it. I don't want to stack randomness on top of chaos. A mock without projected trades isn't as "realistic" as it could be, but it might be more accurate.
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Mock Draft Updates
Here are notes on how various versions of my mock will be graded.
- I participate in three mock draft contests, all of which measure accuracy differently.
- The official final version published here is the one graded by Huddle Report and (maybe?) NFL Mock Draft Database. I have already submitted it to Huddle Report, the deadline for which was 12:59 am ET. (I presume NFL Mock Draft Database’s deadline is 8 pm ET, when the draft starts.)
- Today, I will likely post an updated (though unofficial-for-Huddle Report) version of my mock on social media, where I will pin it to the top of my profile. I will also link to it in this section. This updated social media mock is the one I will enter in the FantasyPros contest, which has an 8 p.m. ET deadline today.
Why do an unofficial mock after my final one?
I want the people who look at my mock (especially for betting purposes) to have the best and most recent information available all the way until the draft starts.
2025 NFL Mock Draft - Final
UPDATED UNOFFICIAL MOCK: Here’s my unofficial final mock.
Now, here's my official final mock, followed by a few brief notes.
Pick | Team | Player | School | Position | Other Options |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | Cam Ward | Miami | QB | WR, EDGE |
| 2 | CLE | Travis Hunter | Colorado | WR | QB, EDGE |
| 3 | NYG | Abdul Carter | Penn State | EDGE | QB, WR |
| 4 | NE | Will Campbell | LSU | OT | RB, WR, EDGE |
| 5 | JAX | Ashton Jeanty | Boise State | RB | DT |
| 6 | LV | Armand Membou | Missouri | OT | RB, DT |
| 7 | NYJ | Mason Graham | Michigan | DT | OT, TE |
| 8 | CAR | Jalon Walker | Georgia | EDGE | DT |
| 9 | NO | Mykel Williams | Georgia | EDGE | QB, OT |
| 10 | CHI | Tyler Warren | Penn State | TE | RB, OT |
| 11 | SF | Walter Nolen | Mississippi | DT | OT, EDGE |
| 12 | DAL | Tetairoa McMillan | Arizona | WR | RB, OT |
| 13 | MIA | Kelvin Banks | Texas | OT | CB, S |
| 14 | IND | Colston Loveland | Michigan | TE | OT |
| 15 | ATL | Shemar Stewart | Texas A&M | EDGE | LB |
| 16 | ARI | Jahdae Barron | Texas | CB | EDGE, DT |
| 17 | CIN | Derrick Harmon | Oregon | DT | EDGE, LB |
| 18 | SEA | Grey Zabel | North Dakota State | OT | WR, OG |
| 19 | TB | Jihaad Campbell | Alabama | LB | EDGE, CB |
| 20 | DEN | Omarion Hampton | North Carolina | RB | WR, TE |
| 21 | PIT | Shedeur Sanders | Colorado | QB | DT |
| 22 | LAC | Kenneth Grant | Michigan | DT | TE, WR |
| 23 | GB | Matthew Golden | Texas | WR | CB |
| 24 | MIN | Nick Emmanwori | South Carolina | S | DT, CB, OG |
| 25 | HOU | Emeka Egbuka | Ohio State | WR | OG, OT |
| 26 | LAR | Will Johnson | Michigan | CB | WR, OT |
| 27 | BAL | Malaki Starks | Georgia | S | EDGE |
| 28 | DET | Tyler Booker | Alabama | G | EDGE |
| 29 | WAS | Donovan Ezeiruaku | Boston College | EDGE | WR, RB |
| 30 | BUF | Maxwell Hairston | Kentucky | CB | S, DT |
| 31 | KC | Josh Simmons | Ohio State | OT | OG, EDGE |
| 32 | PHI | Mike Green | Marshall | EDGE | DT, S, WR |
"Must Include" Prospects in Round 1
There are 28 players I think have around an 80% chance (or better) to go in Round 1 (unless something drastically changes between now and the draft).
- QB: Cam Ward (Miami), Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)
- RB: Ashton Jeanty (Boise State), Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)
- WR: Travis Hunter (Colorado), Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona), Matthew Golden (Texas), Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State)
- TE: Tyler Warren (Penn State), Colston Loveland (Michigan)
- OT: Will Campbell (LSU), Armand Membou (Missouri), Kelvin Banks (Texas), Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)
- OG: Tyler Booker (Alabama)
- EDGE: Abdul Carter (Penn State), Jalon Walker (Georgia), Mykel Williams (Georgia), Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M), Mike Green (Marshall), Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)
- DT: Mason Graham (Michigan), Walter Nolen (Mississippi), Kenneth Grant (Michigan)
- LB: Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)
- CB: Will Johnson (LSU), Jahdae Barron (Texas)
- S: Malaki Starks (Georgia)
All of these guys I've included in this mock.
"Want to Include" Prospects in Round 1
After the "must include" players, I have another four guys with at least a 60% chance of getting in Round 1.
- OT: Josh Simmons (Ohio State)
- DT: Derrick Harmon (Oregon)
- CB: Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky)
- S: Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)
These four round out my top 32 and are all graded as Round 1 players in my top 100 prospect big board.
Borderline Prospects in Round 1
After the aforementioned players, I considered only six more guys on the borderline of Rounds 1-2.
- QB: Jaxson Dart (Mississippi)
- RB: TreVeyon Henderson (Ohio State)
- OT: Josh Conerly (Oregon)
- OG: Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)
- EDGE: James Pearce (Tennessee)
- CB: Trey Amos (Mississippi)
Conerly and Pearce are the two who were closest to inclusion in my mock.
NFL Mock Draft Analysis
In previous versions, I've provided much more in the way of analysis. Here, for the sake of expediency, I provide only cursory notes.
- Picks 1-10: Chalk.
- Pick 11: 49ers need to rebuild DL, and Nolen might be the most talented DT in the class.
- Pick 12: At WR, I still have Tetairoa McMillan ahead of Matthew Golden.
- Pick 13: Dolphins need a replacement for retired LT Terron Armstead.
- Pick 14: Chalk with TE Colston Loveland.
- Picks 15: I go with EDGE Shemar Stewart, which sends Mike Green falling down the board.
- Pick 16: At CB, Jahdae Barron is now ahead of Will Johnson.
- Picks 17-18: Trenches for Bengals and Seahawks.
- Picks 19-20: Chalk.
- Pick 21: Steelers stop the slide for QB Shedeur Sanders … but I was VERY tempted to exclude him from my mock altogether. If he falls to Day 2, I won't be surprised. I also briefly thought about "cheating" the system by giving the Steelers a DT at No. 21 and then "projecting" them to trade up to No. 32, where they would take Sanders. But I opted against that, since it's utterly unrealistic.
- Pick 22: Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh gets a Michigan Man.
- Pick 23: The Packers finally go WR in Round 1.
- Pick 24: Vikings pair S Nick Emmanwori with franchise stalwart Harrison Smith.
- Pick 25: Texans reunite QB C.J. Stroud with one of his 1,000-yard college receivers.
- Pick 26: Rams catch the falling knife that is Will Johnson.
- Pick 27: Ravens pair S Malaki Starks with All-Pro Kyle Hamilton.
- Pick 28: Lions get replacement for departed RG Kevin Zeitler.
- Pick 29: Commanders probably need multiple new bodies at EDGE. They get one here.
- Pick 30: Bills replace departed CB Rasul Douglas.
- Pick 31: Chiefs attempt once again to get a blindside protector for QB Patrick Mahomes.
- Pick 32: The Eagles do what they do.
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