2026 NFL Draft Rumors: Is The NFL Sold On Fernando Mendoza?
Matthew Freedman breaks down the latest buzz around NFL Draft conversations as we enter the 2026 NFL Scouting Combine.
The NFL Scouting Combine is this week (Feb. 23 - Mar. 2) in Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium.
While its primary function is to provide teams with the venue for interviewing and assessing prospects, it also serves as a league-wide rumor mill, as national and local reporters, evaluators, scouts, coaches and front office personnel spend time together drinking, talking, whispering and trading secrets.
So in this article, I want to look at some of the rumors and various pieces of intel I've gathered over the past month or so.
I'm not one to brag, but …
For the 2025 draft, I was No. 1 in big board accuracy and No. 3 in mock accuracy. Since 2020, I'm the No. 1 mocker in the known universe.
For all our draft coverage, see our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Hub.
Here are my most recent:
2026 NFL Draft: Rumors & Intelligence
The NFL Might Not Be Sold on QB Fernando Mendoza
On a recent episode of The McShay Show, Todd McShay said that he's had conversations with people in the NFL who question whether QB Fernando Mendoza (Indiana), widely expected to go No. 1 overall, is more of "a guy" instead of "the guy."
Check out my Mendoza scouting report.
If we were to put Mendoza in previous draft classes and compare him as a prospect to the top QBs in those classes, he probably wouldn't stand out favorably.
In the 2025 class, maybe he'd go ahead of Cam Ward, but maybe not. The two actually had similar production in their final college season.
- Mendoza: 10.8 AY/A | 17.3 RuYds per game
- Ward: 10.5 AY/A | 15.7 RuYds per game
And Ward was a far better out-of-structure creator than Mendoza was.
In 2024, Mendoza definitely wouldn't have gone ahead of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. I'm just asserting that as a fact.
And in 2023, he probably wouldn't have gone ahead of Bryce Young, who had the higher prospect grade from Lance Zierlein.
Relative to the QBs of the past three classes, Mendoza might be the No. 4 QB … but he also might be the No. 6 QB.
In a QB class this thin, Mendoza should go No. 1.
But if the Raiders aren't all that excited about him, and if a team (like the Jets) makes them an offer for the pick … even though the Raiders need a QB, would they consider it?
The Jets Might Try to Trade Up to No. 1
This might seem as if I'm speaking out of both sides of my mouth, but—while the league as a whole might have questions about Mendoza—the Jets, who (like the Raiders) need a QB, might attempt to trade up for him.
On The Rich Eisen Show, Daniel Jeremiah said as much.
- Eisen: "You think the Jets would trade up for Fernando Mendoza?"
- Jeremiah: "Oh, I 100% think they would."
- Eisen: "No kidding."
- Jeremiah: "100%, but it's irrelevant, because [the Raiders] aren't going to pass up an opportunity to get Mendoza."
Jeremiah is one of the best mainstream sources in the industry.
If he says the Jets want Mendoza, we should believe him. Similarly, if he says the Raiders won't consider trading the pick, we should trust him.
But here's the thing: If the Jets absolutely want Mendoza … if they decide they're willing to mortgage the future of their franchise to get him … they can get him.
They have the No. 2 pick.
In what universe do the Raiders not move down one pick … if the Jets are also willing to give them Nos. 16, 33 & 44 … and all three of their 2027 first-rounders?
There's no way an NFL decision maker can turn down that sort of compensation for a one-spot drop when all that's being sacrificed is a shot at a QB who wouldn't have been a guarantee to go No. 1 in any of the three previous drafts.
While it makes sense to wonder about what the Raiders think of Mendoza, that's irrelevant. What actually matters is what the Jets think about him—because they have the juice to all but force a trade if they really want to.
David Bailey Might Overtake Arvell Reese as the No. 1 EDGE
Recently, McShay, Mel Kiper (on First Draft) and Field Yates (on The Rich Eisen Show) have all suggested that it could be a real debate for the Jets between Arvell Reese and David Bailey at No. 2 to be the No. 1 EDGE in the class.
Indeed, Kiper has Bailey (No. 4) ranked just one spot after Reese (No. 3). It's exactly the same on Jeremiah's big board.
Reese is only 20 years old, and he'll fetch plenty of Micah Parsons and Abdul Carter comps with his EDGE/off-ball versatility. But Bailey is more proven with his FBS-best 14.5 sacks last year as a unanimous first-team All-American.
If Bailey were to go ahead of Reese, that wouldn't be a surprise.
The Cardinals Won't Take an OT at No. 3
This is from Tony Pauline, who did a hit on The Joe Rose Show a few weeks ago and spoke about the possibility of the Cardinals taking an OT at No. 3, specifically RT Francis Mauigoa (Miami): "I don't believe that, and no one I spoke to at the Shrine Bowl thinks an offensive tackle's gonna go that early."
Pauline might be right.
Here's the problem: The Cardinals must draft someone at No. 3—and there's no obvious candidate for them to take.
Let's assume that QB Fernando Mendoza and EDGE Arvell Reese are off the board.
Do the Cardinals really want to take the No. 2 EDGE in the class at No. 3? Especially when EDGE is one of the positions on their team where there isn't an immediate and pressing need?
And maybe No. 3 is a little early for OT, but they're set to lose RT Jonah Williams and swing OT Kelvin Beachum in free agency, and new HC Mike LaFleur (as an offensive play caller) might want to fortify the OL.
And as for Mauigoa, I can imagine him as the No. 3 pick. He was the top OT recruit in the 2023 freshman class, he doesn't turn 21 years old until after the draft, he has great size (6-6, 315 lbs.), and he was a consensus first-team All-American.
He's clean, and the Cardinals could use that, even if he's not up to the caliber of a typical No. 3 pick.
But if the Cardinals don't go OT at No. 3 … maybe EDGE … or just maybe RB Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) or S Caleb Downs (Ohio State)???
QB Ty Simpson Is Not a First-Rounder
This tidbit regarding QB Ty Simpson (Alabama) comes from ESPN's Matt Miller (in a recent mock draft): "Simpson doesn't have a Round 1 grade on my board, and I couldn't find a single team that would give him one during conversations at the Senior Bowl."
- Yikes.
- I believe it.
Many mocks still have Simpson locked into Round 1 (usually going to the Jets, Steelers or Rams), but I've planted a red flag on him, and by April, I expect Simpson to be a consensus Day 2 selection.
For a first-year starter, Simpson was good last year (3,567 yards, 28 TDs, five INTs on a 64.5% completion rate, 90-93-2 rushing in 15 starts). He looked the way one would want a former five-star recruit to look early in his career—but he didn't earn the starting job until he was a redshirt junior, and as an NFL rookie, he'll be 24 years old. It's concerning that two different coaching staffs named Jalen Milroe the starter over him in the 2023-24 seasons.
On top of that, Simpson has only modest size (6-2, 208 pounds). His rushing ability is almost nonexistent. His arm strength is average. His accuracy, judgment and technique disappear under pressure. And his play fell off in the second half of the season (6.5 AY/A in Games 8-15 vs. 10.3 in Games 1-7).
I'm with Miller on this: Simpson isn't a first-rounder.
Join Our Newsletter
Trusted by 400,000+ fantasy football players. Get access to Fantasy Life's free award winning newsletter and tools, all in one step.
By registering or logging in, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
