The NFL draft is a little less than four weeks away, so now feels like a good time to update my NFL mock draft. 

For previous versions, check out my Fantasy Life author page as well as our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Hub.

Also, every Saturday edition of the Fantasy Life Newsletter is now dedicated to the draft.

Over the past six years (since I started submitting mocks in competitions), I’m the No. 2 mocker for accuracy, and I'm a lifetime 484-424 (+102.6 units) betting on the draft. Subscribe to our free Betting Life Newsletter for regular guidance, best bets, and more.

2025 NFL Mock Draft

Now that the 2025 NFL Draft order is fully set, here's my "one month away" mock, followed by notes.

2025 Mock Draft Methodology

Here's an outline of my general mock process.

1. Identify the 32 players most likely to go in Round 1.
2. Order players correctly within their position groups.
3. Match teams with positions of need.
4. Attempt to mock players within their likely draft ranges.

Accuracy, more than precision, is the priority.

"Must Include" Prospects in Round 1

Right now, there are 27 players I think have around an 80% chance (or better) to go in Round 1 (unless something drastically changes in their evaluation between now and the draft).

• QB: Cam Ward (Miami), Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)
• RB: Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)
• WR: Travis Hunter (Colorado), Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona), Matthew Golden (Texas)
• TE: Tyler Warren (Penn State), Colston Loveland (Michigan)
• OT: Armand Membou (Missouri), Will Campbell (LSU), Kelvin Banks (Texas), Josh Simmons (Ohio State)
• OG: Tyler Booker (Alabama)
• EDGE: Abdul Carter (Penn State), Jalon Walker (Georgia), Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M), Mykel Williams (Georgia), Mike Green (Marshall), James Pearce (Tennessee)
• DT: Mason Graham (Michigan), Kenneth Grant (Michigan), Walter Nolen (Mississippi)
• LB: Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)
• CB: Will Johnson (LSU), Jahdae Barron (Texas)
• S: Malaki Starks (Georgia), Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)

All of these guys I'm including in this mock.

"Want to Include" Prospects in Round 1

After the "must include" players, I have another five players with at least a 60% chance of getting in Round 1.

• RB: Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)
• OT: Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)
• DT: Derrick Harmon (Oregon)
• CB: Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky)
• EDGE: Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)

I'm including all five of them in my mock, which means that Round 1 is now locked in for me.

Of this group, the guy closest to getting bumped was Ezeiruaku, who's making his first appearance in a mock of mine: Seven EDGEs in Round 1 might be a stretch.

Borderline Prospects in Round 1

And then I have 10 more guys right on the borderline of Rounds 1-2.

• QB: Jaxson Dart (Mississippi)
• WR: Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State), Luther Burden (Missouri)
• OT: Josh Conerly (Oregon)
• OG: Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)
• EDGE: Nic Scourton (Texas A&M), Jordan Burch (Oregon) 
• CB: Azareye'h Thomas (Florida State), Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame), Shavon Revel (East Carolina)

Of this decatet (by the way, "decatet" is totally a word, and if it isn't then it should be), Dart and the WRs were the guys closest to inclusion: Dart increasingly is getting buzz as a candidate at No. 21 for the QB-needy Steelers, and Egbuka and Burden entered draft season regularly mocked in Round 1. If any of them ultimately went on Day 1, I wouldn't be surprised.

Dart, in particular, has a decent chance of finding his way into my final iteration.

NFL Mock Draft Top 20 Analysis

1.01: Titans - QB Cam Ward (Miami)

Here are Cam Ward's odds to go No. 1 at various sportsbooks.

• FanDuel: -1200
• DraftKings: -1600
• BetRivers: -1667
• BetMGM: -3000

It's not a lock that Ward is going No. 1 … but it increasingly looks that way after his pro day.

As discussed with Ian Hartitz on the Fantasy Life Show: The Titans didn't adequately address the QB position in free agency, they haven't been tied to any starting-caliber QBs via beat reporters, and they haven't hyped up QB Will Levis over the offseason.

All of that points to them taking a QB at No. 1.

There's always a chance that they could trade the pick, perhaps to the Browns or Giants, but it would be hard for the Titans to pass up on Ward if they think he's their guy, and I have him ranked as the No. 1 QB in the class.

Last year he won the Davey O'Brien Award as the nation's best QB with 4,313 yards and 39 TDs passing to just seven INTs with 60-204-4 rushing (including sacks).

I expect him to be a Week 1 starter in the NFL.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Cam Ward

1.02: Browns - QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

Like the Titans, the Browns have failed to add a starting-caliber QB in free agency, which makes them a real candidate to select one in the draft, perhaps as early as No. 2.

It's possible that they could look to swing a deal for veteran QB Kirk Cousins, but even if they do, they (like the Falcons last year with Michael Penix) could still take a QB in Round 1.

HC Kevin Stefanski, despite being a two-time COY winner (2020, 2023), has never had the luxury of having "his handpicked guy" at QB, given that Baker Mayfield was already on the team when Stefanski was hired and Deshaun Watson was foisted upon him by ownership.

With Sanders, Stefanski will now have his guy.

As a true freshman at Jackson State, he passed for 3,231 yards and 30 TDs to eight INTs, and then as a sophomore, he improved upon those numbers with 3,752 yards and 40 TDs to six INTs.

As a junior, he passed for 3,230 yards and 27 TDs to just three INTs in his first year at Colorado, and then as a senior he had a nation-best 74.0% completion rate while slinging it for 4,134 yards and 37 TDs to 10 INTs and winning the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award as the nation's top upperclassman QB.

Sanders might not be a true difference-making QB in the NFL, but he might be, and he's likely to be an improvement on what the Browns had last year. As a pocket passer, Sanders could fit into Stefanski's offense well.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Shedeur Sanders

1.03: Giants - WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado)

Now that the Giants have QBs Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston on the roster, they're less desperate to draft a passer in Round 1—and Ward and Sanders are off the board anyway.

So now it's between Hunter and EDGE Abdul Carter (Penn State).

As I noted in last week's Saturday newsletter, I believe the Giants in this instance would go with Hunter, who helps them fortify two positions of need, whereas Carter merely adds to a position of relative strength, as the Giants already have EDGEs Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux.

In terms of all-around skill set, Hunter's the most talented prospect in this class.

The prevailing sentiment among draft analysts is that Hunter in the NFL will be a full-time perimeter corner who rotates as a situational receiver. 

Maybe … but Hunter is too good (in my opinion) not to be used heavily on offense, given that last year he won the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the most outstanding receiver in college football with 96-1,258-15 receiving.

Of course, he's also a total stud on the other side of the ball: Last year, he won the Chuck Bednarik Award as the defensive player of the year.

If any guy can step into the NFL and right away play significant snaps on both offense and defense, it's Hunter—and the Giants need help at WR and CB, so he's an ideal option at No. 3.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Travis Hunter

1.04: Patriots - EDGE Abdul Carter (Penn State)

Carter didn't work out at the combine because of a stress reaction in his right foot.

And then he didn't work out at his pro day because he's still rehabbing his shoulder from an injury suffered during the season.

Carter might be able to work out for teams in April … but his injury status is starting to feel like a red flag, so I think it's fine for him to drop from No. 1 to No. 4 from last mock to this one.

But at No. 4 I expect the Patriots and new, defensive HC Mike Vrabel would be happy to get him: He's young (21 years old), pedigreed (unanimous All-American), and productive (12 sacks and nation-leading 24 tackles for loss as a junior).

The No. 4 pick feels like Carter's absolute floor … unless his injury status becomes an even bigger issue.

1.05: Jaguars - DT Mason Graham (Michigan)

The Jags need help all over the defense, and Graham is a unanimous All-American who has the power to anchor against the run and the athleticism to rush the passer.

Putting Graham on a line with EDGEs Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker, and Arik Armstead feels like a no-brainer move.

1.06: Raiders - RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)

Jeanty is -125 (DraftKings) to be selected by the Raiders and -5000 (BetMGM) to be the No. 1 RB taken.

Last year, Jeanty put up 2,739 yards and 30 TDs in 14 games, earned unanimous first-team All-American recognition, and won the Maxwell and Doak Walker Awards as the best all-around player and top RB in the nation.

With the Seahawks, first-year HC Pete Carroll for years had an offense built around the backfield. With Jeanty, he will have that once again.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Ashton Jeanty

1.07: Jets - TE Tyler Warren (Penn State)

Even with the recent addition of QB Justin Fields via free agency, the Jets would probably take Ward and Sanders if either one were available at No. 7.

Alas, both are off the board, so the Jets look to add the best available pass catcher to replace some of the departed production from WR Davante Adams (released) and TE Tyler Conklin (free agent).

Warren is the highest-rated receiver available, and ever since Daniel Jeremiah slated him to the Jets in his first two mocks (Version 1, Version 2), this has become an increasingly popular team-player pairing.

Personally, I think Warren is worthy of top-10 consideration, so I'm happy to have him at No. 7.

Although Warren did little his first few seasons in college, as a redshirt junior he was No. 2 on the Nittany Lions with 34-422-7 receiving, and then last year—in a John Mackey Award-winning campaign as the most outstanding TE in college football—he served as the driving force of the Penn State offense with a team-best 104-1,233-8 receiving, to which he added 26-218-4 rushing.

I resisted it for a little, but now Warren is my No. 1 TE. 

With Warren alongside Fields, WR Garrett Wilson, and RB Breece Hall, the Jets could have legitimate playmakers at all four skill positions. 

Thor's Prospect Profile: Tyler Warren

1.08: Panthers - EDGE Jalon Walker (Georgia)

For months, I've said that the Panthers can't go into the season with WR Adam Thielen as their top pass catcher if they want to give QB Bryce Young every chance of succeeding.

And that's why I've regularly mocked them with WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona).

But I can't ignore how common it is to see the Panthers go with an EDGE in mocks, and I've started to move WRs down the board in general, so I don't feel (at least right now) that McMillan is the best option at No. 8.

And that puts me on Walker, whom I view as a top-10 talent: He's young (21 years old) and pedigreed (2024 Butkus Award as the nation's top LB).

While I expect Walker to play primarily on the edge in the NFL, I do think he has the athleticism a la Micah Parsons to line up off the ball as well, and that added versatility could make him attractive to the Panthers.

1.09: Saints - CB Will Johnson (Michigan)

Johnson is a tough player to place. I honestly almost let him slide all the way to the Packers at No. 23.

But over the past year, the Saints have traded away No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore and watched No. 2 CB Paulson Adebo leave via free agency. They need help in the secondary, and I still think Johnson is justifiable in this range.

Blessed with good size (6-2, 194 lbs.) and pedigree (five recruitment stars), Johnson is a worthy No. 1 CB in this class.

1.10: Bears - OT Armand Membou (Missouri)

The Bears have been active over the past two weeks in rebuilding their OL by trading for LG Joe Thuney and RG Jonah Jackson and signing C Drew Dalman.

But they could look to protect franchise QB Caleb Williams and bolster the OL even more by adding Membou, whose draft stock has skyrocketed after his memorable combine testing.

• Size: 6-4, 332 lbs.
• 40-Yard Dash: 4.91 seconds

A natural RT with LT potential, Membou could immediately challenge LT Braxton Jones on the perimeter or Jackson on the interior for a starting role. 

1.11: 49ers - OT Will Campbell (LSU)

In free agency the 49ers have lost LG Aaron Banks as well as swing OT Jaylon Moore.

LT Trent Williams turns 37 years old in August, and RT Colton McKivitz is in the final year of his contract.

The 49ers need OL help.

Enter Campbell, who has the upside of youth (21 years old) and pedigree (five recruitment stars, first-team All-American).

Immediately, Campbell could push McKivitz for a starting role, and there would also be the possibility of him kicking inside early in his career as the replacement for Banks.

1.12: Cowboys - WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)

As a Cowboys fan, I would be thrilled with this pick, which is why it won't happen.

But a man can dream.

The Cowboys desperately need a No. 2 WR to play alongside CeeDee Lamb, and McMillan feels like he could be a great supplementary option in the offense.

With 90-1,402-10 receiving as a sophomore and 84-1,319-8 as a junior, McMillan might end up being better than Hunter as an NFL pass catcher.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Tetairoa McMillan

1.13: Dolphins - S Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)

The Dolphins have given small one-year deals to Ifeatu Melifonwu ($4M) and Ashtyn Davis ($2.5M) to try to address the SS position … but Emmanowori is young (21 years old), productive (four INTs, 88 combined tackles last year), and athletic (4.38-second 40-yard dash at 6-3, 220 lbs.).

In Emmanwori, the Dolphins might have Kyle Hamilton 2.0.

1.14: Colts - TE Colston Loveland (Michigan)

Right now, the Colts have five TEs on their roster, and as the old saying goes, "If you have five TEs, you don't have a TE."

Whether they go with Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones as the starting QB, the Colts need to give him another pass-catching option, and Loveland makes sense, given his age (21 years old) and production (56-582-5 receiving in 10 games last season).

Thor's Prospect Profile: Colston Loveland

1.15: Falcons - EDGE Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M)

The Falcons could go in a number of directions, but I think GM Terry Fontenot and defensive HC Raheem Morris will be drawn to Stewart's elite freaky athleticism, especially given that he has the size and versatility to line up all over the DL and the Falcons could lose EDGEs Matthew Judon and Lorenzo Carter in free agency.

Essentially, the Falcons need DL bodies—and what a body Stewart has.

As an athlete, Stewart is comparable to Myles Garrett.

Of course, his college production was as un-Garrett-like as it gets. Last year, Stewart had just 1.5 sacks. That's why he's going No. 15 instead of No. 1.

But he absolutely tore up the combine with his physical testing.

• Broad Jump: 10 feet, 11 inches
• Vertical Jump: 40 inches
• 40-Yard Dash: 4.59 seconds

After a showing like that, I expect Stewart to go in the top half of Round 1, and I was tempted to make him the No. 2 EDGE in the class and slot him to the Saints at No. 9.

1.16: Cardinals - DT Kenneth Grant (Michigan)

This offseason, the Cardinals added DT Dalvin Tomlinson, but they could use another interior playmaker along the DL. With his size (6-4, 331 lbs.), Grant has the potential to anchor against the run in the NFL, and with his sack production (6.5 over the past two seasons), he might be able to rush the passer as a professional.

When third-year HC Jonathan Gannon was the 2021-22 Eagles DC, his unit had the most success when it was dominant in the trenches. With EDGEs Josh Sweat, Baron Browning, Zaven Collins, and B.J. Ojulari on the perimeter and then Tomlinson and Grant in the middle, Gannon is hoping to build a DL that can dominate the line of scrimmage.

1.17: Bengals - EDGE Mykel Williams (Georgia)

EDGE Trey Hendrickson had an NFL-high 17.5 sacks last season in an impressive first-team All-Pro campaign, but he turns 31 years old in December, he wants either to be traded or paid more money, and the team has little positional depth after him. 

Williams is young (turns 21 years old in June) and was a key contributor to Georgia's defense over the past three seasons. As a freshman, he actually led the championship-winning Bulldogs in sacks (4.5).

With Williams alongside Hendrickson, the Bengals could have some real pass-rushing power.

1.18: Seahawks - WR Matthew Golden (Texas)

With slot-centric WRs Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp, the Seahawks could use a perimeter-capable pass catcher with speed (other than veteran journeyman Marquez Valdes-Scantling).

That's Golden, who blazed a 4.29-second 40-yard dash at the combine (at 5-11, 191 lbs.) and was the No. 1 WR at Texas last year in his first season with the team (58-987-9 receiving).

With his strong athletic testing and sufficient production, Golden is now ahead of Egbuka and Burden in my WR rankings. I was happy to get him as an upside depth option in a recent superflex fantasy football mock draft.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Matthew Golden

1.19: Buccaneers - LB Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)

Campbell entered college as a five-star recruit. As a junior at Alabama, he racked up 117 tackles, 12 tackles for loss, and five sacks. At the combine, he exhibited elite athleticism (4.52-second 40-yard dash at 6-3, 235 lbs.). While he's probably best used off the ball, he still has the ability to line up on the edge as a traditional pass rusher. And he'll be 21 years old for the entirety of his rookie campaign.

The only drawback with Campbell is his post-combine shoulder surgery, which could prevent him from practicing in training camp and limit his availability in his first season.

Even so, that's a short-term concern, and it's easy to imagine GM Jason Licht and defensive HC Todd Bowles looking at Campbell and viewing him as a worthy long-term successor to 35-year-old LB Lavonte David.

1.20: Broncos - RB Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)

The Broncos let RB Javonte Williams leave in free agency. In Hampton, they get a marked upgrade and something of a steal, as he could go as high as No. 12 to the Cowboys. 

In fact, some teams might legitimately have him as their No. 1 RB ahead of Jeanty: Hampton has elite athleticism (9.67 RAS), and he was productive in college (2,033 yards, 17 TDs in 12 games last season).

What Marshawn Lynch (No. 12) was to Adrian Peterson (No. 7) in 2007 or Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12) was to Bijan Robinson (No. 8) in 2023—that's what Hampton could be to Jeanty this year.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Omarion Hampton

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