Chris Allen reviews the different parameters that are prominent among NFL teams that make continually poor decisions in the NFL Draft.

OK, I’ll admit it. I’ve had a bad draft before.

Please recognize that I said “a” bad draft. That determiner is critical. The one time my roster came out below expectations still sticks in my mind. Has it happened two, three, or four (hundred) times since then? First of all, how dare you? Instead, let’s focus on the important part of the only team I’ve put together.

Understanding the “why” or “how”  behind player selection is what makes a stronger drafter. For fantasy managers, it could be which rookie you bet on or a veteran you knew to avoid. Real GMs can have similar processes, but deal with the highs and lows of fighting for a championship. And by taking a look back at the last 10 seasons, we can see how some teams continue to stay on the outside of contention every year.

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High Draft Picks

In the spring, a top pick in the draft revives visions of hope. The relative assurance of a high-end prospect, preferably at a premium position, adds confidence. And it should! Assuming most of their collegiate productivity translates to the NFL, an additional contributor may be the spark a team needs. Just look at the Bengals' transformation over the last five years.

The back-to-back additions of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase in 2020 and 2021 have changed the culture of the franchise. I've waxed rhapsodic about the shift, but here's the flip side of constantly acquiring (theoretically) elite talent every April. Rewind the timeline on Cincinnati's outlook to December of 2019 - or even 2020. Six wins between both campaigns (trust me, I know). And if we expand the notion of an early draft position being a double-edged sword to the rest of the league, a similar result falls out.

First off, let’s make sure the data passes the sniff test. I’ll make two declarative statements based on the chart.

• The Chiefs, Ravens, and Patriots have had three of the lowest average draft positions over the last 10 years.
• The Bears, Jets, and Cardinals have had three of the highest average draft positions over the last 10 years.

The former group has multiple Super Bowls and playoff appearances amongst them. The latter? Well, they’re doing their best. Regardless, there’s enough here to derive other takeaways. Yes, there are caveats. For instance, the Rams having the second-highest average first-round draft position over the last 10 years doesn’t align with their success. But remember, they’ve had only three first-round picks since 2015 due to trades (one of which turned out to be the 32nd pick in ‘22). Anyway, we can still add another layer to drive the point home.

I compared each team’s average draft position to their win percentage and measured if there were any connection. With an r² of 0.63, it attaches some verifiable confidence to the approach.

Simply put, constantly selecting early is a sign of poor roster management. Sure, youth can’t solve all of your problems. Untimely injuries can derail any best-laid plans (see Burrow, Joe). However, the infusion of talent should be an overall improvement and not a hindrance.

Over/Under Spending in Free Agency

Free agency is a lot like going to the grocery store. Sometimes, you need a bit of everything to get through the next couple of weeks. In other cases, only a few ingredients are missing. Either way, based on spending habits, you can get a gauge on what’s available back at home.

Franchises can give us similar tells at the start of the new league year. To use another analogy, let’s say adding free agents is like plugging gaps. We’ve been looking at team needs all offseason. Ideally (hopefully?), so has each front office. But the more veterans you add, the fewer resources you’ll have for the draft. I’ll explain. 

The average free-agent contract (at signing) over the last 10 seasons has been 1.3 years. That’s less than half of your typical rookie deal. On top of the shortened timeline, GMs have larger salaries to dish out. In 2025 alone, a mid-range FA signing cost $8.4M. That’s about $1M more than your common first-year player. So now, the phrase “don’t go to the store hungry” takes on a new meaning when we look back on how aggressive teams are ahead of the draft.

Now, to be clear, acquiring free agents isn’t a bad thing. Teams just shouldn’t live on either end of the spectrum. Yet another food-related adage comes to mind: everything in moderation. Being too frugal can point to a reliance on trading or strong drafting. Constantly going to the free-agent well indicates a lack of confidence in the personnel on-site. Accordingly, both have their risks. Finding a middle ground can put teams on a better path to long-term success.

A need for moderation is why you see teams like the Eagles in the middle of the pack in terms of average free-agent spending over the last 10 years. Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs sit right next to them. Meanwhile, critics continued to drag the Jaguars for the Christian Kirk contract until more WR deals fell. Now seen as a tectonic shift in how we view WRs, a WR2 making WR1 money hindered their options elsewhere. 

On the flip side, Jerry Jones’ “all-in” approach has netted a punter as the team’s highest-paid free agent in the last two years. Meanwhile, CeeDee Lamb is running routes with a Carolina castoff and a third-rounder from three years ago. Good teams have to drop in only a few players to keep their squad in contention. Constantly finding your team at either extreme is a sign of picking up weak prospects on a yearly basis.

Fighting with Father Time

I’ll use two severities to get this concept across.

Imagine a team filled with nothing but rookies. First-year starters are at every position. There might be some initial intrigue, right? Throw a progressive playcaller at the helm, and you could catch a home crowd or two in stunned silence as the young guns plow through their team like the Saints’ Week 2 win over the Cowboys last year. But there’s a half-life on a lack of experience. By December, folks like me would be writing articles titled "Watch Out for Team X Next Year.” However, it’s not like the polar opposite of this hypothetical squad would work either.

Critically, any GM trying to assemble a team filled with vets would run low on funds in a hurry. We just talked about the added cost of bringing in specialists. A separate concern would be their collective health. Older athletes can take longer to recover. “Wear and tear” or “mileage” become common topics. Their athleticism and knowledge of the game don’t outweigh its physical strain anymore. So, similar to the free agency discussion, a blended strategy should give us a more sustainable outlook. 

Snap-weighted age (SWA) gives us a snapshot of a team’s maturity based on who’s playing. For instance, an older player taking most of the snaps compared to a rookie riding the bench would tilt the squad’s SWA up. Conversely, our fictional team of rookies would push it down. In any case, we can start to see where the teams with bad draft classes have made their mark.

Derek Carr’s injury news comes at an opportune time (for me, not for Saints fans). New Orleans was already the seventh-oldest roster by SWA in ’24. To add insult to, well, injury, NOLA’s best offensive addition via the draft has been Chris Olave. At the same time, the Giants have shed star players as they retool their passing game. Nine of their Day 1 or 2 picks have been toward the offense over the last five seasons. But without positive production out of their rookies, the G-Men highlight why having a mix of developing journeymen, veterans, and first-year players is so important to building a successful team.

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