NFL Draft Risers and Fallers: Ty Simpson's Stock Is Falling
Matthew Freedman highlights players who are moving up and down his draft board as we approach the 2026 NFL Draft Combine.
The NFL scouting combine begins in just a handful of days (Feb. 23), and that will give us our first real inflection point of draft season.
At the combine, we'll get official biophysical measurements for players (size, speed, agility, explosiveness). We'll get reports on which teams are meeting with which players. And we'll get rumors about which players are generally high or low on team big boards across the league.
So now feels like a decent time to highlight some of the prospects whose draft stock (in my opinion) has gone up or down over the past month (since the College Football Playoffs National Championship).
I'm not one to brag, but …
For the 2025 draft, I was No. 1 in big board accuracy and No. 3 in mock accuracy. Since 2020, I'm the No. 1 mocker in the known universe.
For all our draft coverage, see our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Hub.
Here are my most recent:
Risers In The 2026 NFL Draft Class
EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
About a month ago, QB Dante Moore (Oregon) decided to return to school, and with that choice, he pushed Arvell Reese up to the Jets with the consensus No. 2 pick.
Only 20 years old and a consensus first-team All-American last season, Reese will fetch plenty of Micah Parsons comps with his EDGE/off-ball versatility.
OT Francis Mauigoa (Miami)
Before QB Dante Moore (Oregon) declared that he was returning to school, most mockers assumed that he would go No. 2 and EDGE/LB Arvell Reese (Ohio State) would go No. 3.
But with Moore now off the board, Reese is the consensus No. 2 pick … and questions abound as to what the Cardinals will do at No. 3.
They have needs everywhere, especially on the defense, but they also just hired an offensive play caller in HC Mike LaFleur, and they need OL reinforcements.
So OT has become the solidified position for the Cardinals at No. 3 in many mocks—and over the past month, Francis Mauigoa (Miami) has pulled ahead of Spencer Fano (Utah) as the consensus No. 1 OT in the class.
Either one could be the first OL selected in the draft—but right now Mauigoa holds the lead. He was the top OT recruit in the 2023 freshman class, he doesn't turn 21 years old until after the draft, he has great size (6-6, 315 lbs.), and he was a consensus first-team All-American.
EDGE David Bailey (Texas Tech)
We could see as many as four EDGEs go in the top 10.
- Arvell Reese (Ohio State)
- David Bailey (Texas Tech)
- Reuben Bain (Miami)
- Keldric Faulk (Auburn)
A month ago, Bailey might've been the No. 4 EDGE in the class by consensus sentiment. Since then, though, ESPN's Mel Kiper suggested on the First Draft podcast that Bailey might be in the same tier with Reese, and in his overall big board, Kiper has Bailey (No. 4) ranked just one spot after Reese (No. 3).
A proven pressure machine, Bailey had an FBS-best 14.5 sacks as a unanimous first-team All-American.
Fallers In The 2026 NFL Draft Class
WR Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State)
In a vacuum, Tyson might be the No. 1 WR in the class, and 1-2 months ago, he was talked about that way. He's a true three-level alpha, and wherever he has been, he has led his team in receiving since he was an 18-year-old true freshman.
But the dude has a lengthy and significant injury history. His first season ended with a knee injury, which forced him to rehab and redshirt most of his second season. His third season witnessed a fantastic breakout (75-1,101-10 receiving in 12 games), but it ended with a broken collarbone. And then his fourth and final season began in impressive fashion (57-628-8 receiving and 2-4-1 rushing in the first seven games), but then hamstring injuries sabotaged the rest of his campaign.
On the one hand, football's a violent sport, and Tyson's injury history might be the result of random bad luck. On the other hand, there's a real chance Tyson's a dreaded injury-prone player.
And I believe that possibility has impacted his draft stock.
Not long ago, Tyson was the consensus No. 1 WR. Now, he's cleanly behind Carnell Tate (Ohio State), and I won't be surprised if in another month he trails Makai Lemon (USC).
When Tyson goes through the evaluation process, the medical checkups will be crucial.
QB Ty Simpson (Alabama)
In the first round of the College Football Playoff, Ty Simpson had his best game in months (232 yards, two TDs passing, 9.4 AY/A) and looked like someone who might solidify his Round 1 status with a strong postseason.
But in the quarterfinals, he was timid and terrible (67 yards on 16 pass attempts) as Alabama suffered a 38-3 loss to Indiana.
Since then—even with how thin this QB class is—Simpson's draft stock has slipped.
Most mocks still have Simpson locked into Round 1 (usually going to the Jets, Steelers or Rams), but right now I'm planting a red flag: By the time we get to April, I expect Simpson will be viewed as a consensus Day 2 selection.
For a first-year starter, Simpson was good last year (3,567 yards, 28 TDs, five INTs on a 64.5% completion rate, 90-93-2 rushing in 15 starts). He looked the way one would want a former five-star recruit to look early in his career—but that's the problem with Simpson: He didn't earn the starting job until he was a redshirt junior, and as an NFL rookie, he'll be 24 years old. In retrospect, it's concerning that two different coaching staffs named Jalen Milroe the starter over him in the 2023-24 seasons.
On top of that, Simpson has only modest size (6-2, 208 pounds). His rushing ability is almost nonexistent. His arm strength is average. His accuracy, judgment and technique disappear under pressure. And his play fell off in the second half of the season (6.5 AY/A in Games 8-15 vs. 10.3 in Games 1-7).
For good reason, Simpson's draft stock has fallen, and I believe it will fall farther still.
DT Peter Woods (Clemson)
Peter Woods was a popular top-10 pick in way-too-early mocks a year ago. I had him at No. 6 in mine. He's young (he turns 21 in March), and he was a five-star recruit. ESPN had him ranked as the No. 1 DT in the 2023 class.
But he's not an elite producer. In college, he never had more than three sacks or 8.5 tackles for loss in a season.
Not all NFL decision makers will be willing to bet on his talent with a premium pick.
Join Our Newsletter
Trusted by 400,000+ fantasy football players. Get access to Fantasy Life's free award winning newsletter and tools, all in one step.
By registering or logging in, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
