Most of the big-name NFL free agents have found homes this week, so now feels like a good time to update my NFL mock draft. 

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2025 NFL Mock Draft

Now that the 2025 NFL draft order is fully set, here's my post-combine mock, followed by notes.

2025 Mock Draft Methodology

Here's an outline of my general mock process.

1. Identify the 32 players I think are most likely to go in Round 1.
2. Order players correctly within their position groups.
3. Match teams with positions of need.
4. Attempt to mock as many players as possible within their likely draft ranges.

Accuracy more than precision is the priority.

"Must Include" Prospects in Round 1

Right now, there are 23 players I think have around an 80% chance (or better) to go in Round 1 (unless something drastically changes in their evaluation between now and the draft).

• QB: Cameron Ward (Miami), Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)
• RB: Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)
• WR: Travis Hunter (Colorado), Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)
• TE: Tyler Warren (Penn State), Colston Loveland (Michigan)
• OT: Will Campbell (LSU), Armand Membou (Missouri), Kelvin Banks (Texas), Josh Simmons (Ohio State)
• OG: Tyler Booker (Alabama)
• EDGE: Abdul Carter (Penn State), Jalon Walker (Georgia), Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M), Mykel Williams (Georgia), Mike Green (Marshall)
• DT: Mason Graham (Michigan), Kenneth Grant (Michigan), Walter Nolen (Mississippi)
• LB: Jihaad Campbell (Alabama)
• CB: Will Johnson (LSU), Jahdae Barron (Texas)

All of these guys I'm including in this mock.

"Want to Include" Prospects in Round 1

After the "must include" players, I have another eight players with at least a 60% chance of getting in Round 1.

• WR: Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State), Matthew Golden (Texas), Luther Burden (Missouri)
• OT: Josh Conerly (Oregon)
• EDGE: James Pearce (Tennessee)
• DT: Derrick Harmon (Oregon)
• S: Malaki Starks (Georgia), Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)

I'm including six of them in the mock … but Conerly and Burden are getting bumped.

In the 19 mocks where they're both present, Conerly is behind OT Grey Zabel (North Dakota State) in 11.

As for Burden, right now I have him behind Egbuka and Golden, and I don't think we'll see five wide receivers in Round 1.

Borderline Round 1 Prospects

And then I have nine more guys right on the borderline of Rounds 1-2.

• RB: Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)
• OG: Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)
• OT: Grey Zabel (North Dakota State)
• EDGE: Nic Scourton (Texas A&M), Donovan Ezeiruaku (Boston College)
• CB: Azareye'h Thomas (Florida State), Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame), Maxwell Hairston (Kentucky), Shavon Revel (East Carolina)

In this iteration, I settled on Zabel, Hampton, and Thomas.

I mentioned Zabel earlier. I think he slots in as the No. 5 OT in this class.

Based on his combine performance, I now think Hampton will go in Round 1, and it would not surprise me if some teams had him as the No. 1 RB in the class.

Thomas is in the same tier as Morrison, Hairston, and Revel, but I'm projecting three CBs into Round 1, and Thomas is currently at the top of this tier.

Analysis of Picks 1-16 in 2025 NFL Mock Draft

1.01: Titans - EDGE Abdul Carter (Penn State)

At the combine, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Carter has a stress reaction in his right foot. Thankfully, Carter will not have surgery and will work out at Penn State's pro day.

It seems that Carter's foot injury is a nonissue … for now.

It might be enough to push the Titans to select QB Cam Ward (Miami), who is the betting favorite to go No. 1 (-295, DraftKings).

I was tempted to mock Ward at No. 1 because the Titans clearly need a QB.

But Titans President of Football Operations Chad Brinker has said that the team "won't pass up on a generational talent" at No. 1, and Ward—as much as I like him—is not a once-a-decade prospect.

Carter, though, might be: He's young (21 years old), pedigreed (unanimous All-American), and productive (12 sacks and nation-leading 24 tackles for loss as a junior).

I have a position logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker for Abdul to go No. 1 (+220, FanDuel).

1.02: Browns - QB Cam Ward (Miami)

Entering the combine, I thought the Browns might be inclined to address the QB position via free agency. I also thought the NFL might like Ward but not love him.

I might've been wrong on both counts.

At the combine, the boots-on-the-ground consensus was that Ward will go to the Browns (per Hayden Winks and Brett Kollmann). And Ward was highly regarded by evaluators (per Lindsay Rhodes).

I personally have him ranked as the No. 1 QB in the class.

Last year he won the Davey O'Brien Award as the nation's best QB with 4,313 yards and 39 TDs passing to just seven INTs with 60-204-4 rushing (including sacks).

I expect him to be a Week 1 starter in the NFL.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Cam Ward

1.03: Giants - QB Shedeur Sanders (Colorado)

The Giants desperately need a quarterback. They have only human meme Tommy DeVito under contract. And they are real candidates to trade up to No. 1, where I'd expect them to select Ward.

But I don't project trades in my mocks, because I don't like to stack chaos on top of randomness.

So it's easy to project them drafting a QB at No. 3, and with Ward off the board Sanders is a fine option.

As a true freshman at Jackson State, he passed for 3,231 yards and 30 TDs to eight INTs, and then as a sophomore, he improved upon those numbers with 3,752 yards and 40 TDs to six INTs.

As a junior, he passed for 3,230 yards and 27 TDs to just three INTs in his first year at Colorado, and then as a senior he had a nation-best 74.0% completion rate while slinging it for 4,134 yards and 37 TDs to 10 INTs and winning the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award as the nation's top upperclassman QB.

Sanders might not be a true difference-making QB in the NFL, but he might be, and he's likely to be an improvement on what the Giants had last year.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Shedeur Sanders

1.04: Patriots - WR/CB Travis Hunter (Colorado)

I have Hunter as the No. 1 player on my top 50 big board. In terms of all-around skill set, he's the most talented prospect in this class.

The prevailing sentiment among draft analysts is that Hunter in the NFL will be a full-time perimeter corner who rotates as a situational receiver. 

Maybe … but Hunter is too good (in my opinion) not to be used heavily on offense, given that last year he won the Fred Biletnikoff Award as the most outstanding receiver in college football with 96-1,258-15 receiving.

Of course, he's also a total stud on the other side of the ball: Last year, he won the Chuck Bednarik Award as the defensive player of the year.

If any guy can step into the NFL and right away play significant snaps on both offense and defense, it's Hunter—and the Pats need help at WR and CB, so he's an ideal option at No. 4. 

1.05: Jaguars - DT Mason Graham (Michigan)

The Jags need help all over the defense, and Graham is a unanimous All-American who has the power to anchor against the run and the athleticism to rush the passer.

Putting Graham on a line with EDGEs Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker, and Arik Armstead feels like a no-brainer move.

1.06: Raiders - RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)

For months, I've wanted to get Jeanty into the top 10. Now he's there.

With the recent acquisition of QB Geno Smith, the Raiders are set at the position, so now they're free to grab the top playmaker available—and that's Jeanty, whose +175 (DraftKings) to go to Las Vegas.

Last year, Jeanty put up 2,739 yards and 30 TDs in 14 games, earned unanimous first-team All-American recognition, and won the Maxwell and Doak Walker Awards as the best all-around player and top RB in the nation.

With the Seahawks, first-year HC Pete Carroll for years had an offense built around the backfield. With Jeanty, he will have that once again.

In fantasy, now is the time to buy Jeanty.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Ashton Jeanty

1.07: Jets - TE Tyler Warren (Penn State)

Even with the recent addition of QB Justin Fields via free agency, the Jets would probably take Ward and Sanders if either one were available at No. 7.

Alas, both are off the board, so the Jets look to add the best available pass catcher to replace some of the departed production from WR Davante Adams (released) and TE Tyler Conklin (free agent).

Warren is the highest-rated receiver available, and ever since Daniel Jeremiah slated him to the Jets in BOTH of his mocks (Version 1, Version 2), this has become an increasingly popular team-player pairing.

Personally, I think Warren is worthy of top-10 consideration, so I'm happy to have him there in my mocks.

Although Warren did little his first few seasons in college, as a redshirt junior he was No. 2 on the Nittany Lions with 34-422-7 receiving, and then last year—in a John Mackey Award-winning campaign as the most outstanding TE in college football—he served as the driving force of the Penn State offense with a team-best 104-1,233-8 receiving, to which he added 26-218-4 rushing.

I resisted it for a little, but now Warren is my No. 1 TE. 

With Warren alongside Fields, WR Garrett Wilson, and RB Breece Hall, the Jets could have legitimate playmakers at all four skill positions.

1.08: Panthers - WR Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)

It's common to see the Panthers take an EDGE at No. 8 in mocks—but this season for Carolina is all about determining whether QB Bryce Young is the guy to lead this franchise into the future, and the Panthers can't make that determination with any conviction if slot WR Adam Thielen is his top pass catcher, right?

McMillan belongs in the top 10, and the Panthers need an upside receiver. It's an ideal match.

With 90-1,402-10 receiving as a sophomore and 84-1,319-8 as a junior, McMillan might end up being better than Hunter as an NFL pass catcher.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Tetairoa McMillan

1.09: Saints - EDGE Jalon Walker (Georgia)

I view Walker as a top-10 talent: He's young (21 years old) and pedigreed (2024 Butkus Award as the nation's top LB).

While I expect Walker to play primarily on the edge in the NFL, I do think he has the athleticism a la Micah Parsons to line up off the ball as well, and that added versatility could make him attractive to the Saints.

1.10: Bears - OT Will Campbell (LSU)

The Bears have been active over the past two weeks in rebuilding their OL by trading for LG Joe Thuney and RG Jonah Jackson and signing C Drew Dalman.

But they could look to protect franchise QB Caleb Williams and bolster the OL even more by adding Campbell, who has the upside of youth (21 years old) and pedigree (five recruitment stars, first-team All-American).

Immediately, Campbell could challenge LT Braxton Jones on the perimeter or Jackson on the interior for a starting role.

1.11: 49ers - OT Armand Membou (Missouri)

In free agency the 49ers have lost LG Aaron Banks as well as swing OT Jaylon Moore.

LT Trent Williams turns 37 years old in August, and RT Colton McKivitz is in the final year of his contract.

The 49ers need OL help.

Enter Membou, whose draft stock has skyrocketed after his memorable combine testing.   

• Size: 6-4, 332 lbs.
• 40-Yard Dash: 4.91 seconds

A natural RT with LT potential, Membou could immediately push McKivitz for a starting role, and there would also be the possibility of him kicking inside early in his career.

1.12: Cowboys - RB Omarion Hampton (North Carolina)

The Cowboys signed veteran Javonte Williams to a one-year, $3M deal, but that's not enough to keep the team from continuing to address the position in the draft.

I imagine that the Cowboys would prefer Jeanty, but Hampton is a worthy consolation pick at No. 12, and some teams might legitimately have him as their No. 1 RB: He has elite athleticism (9.67 RAS), and he was productive in college (2,033 yards, 17 TDs in 12 games last season).

What Marshawn Lynch (No. 12) was to Adrian Peterson (No. 7) in 2007 or Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12) was to Bijan Robinson (No. 8) in 2023—that's what Hampton could be to Jeanty this year.

Thor's Prospect Profile: Omarion Hampton

1.13: Dolphins - S Nick Emmanwori (South Carolina)

The Dolphins have given small one-year deals to Ifeatu Melifonwu ($4M) and Ashtyn Davis ($2.5M) to try to address the SS position … but Emmanowori is young (21 years old), productive (four INTs, 88 combined tackles last year), and athletic (4.38-second 40-yard dash at 6-3, 220 lbs.).

In Emmanwori, the Dolphins might have Kyle Hamilton 2.0.

1.14: Colts - CB Will Johnson (Michigan)

The Colts have addressed the secondary by adding CB Charvarius Ward and FS Camryn Bynum, but if the team really wants to turn a weakness into a strength for new DC Lou Anarumo, it could stop Johnson's slide down the draft board.

Blessed with good size (6-2, 194 lbs.) and pedigree (five recruitment stars), Johnson is a worthy No. 1 CB in this class, and the Colts are fortunate to get him at this spot.

1.15: Falcons - EDGE Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M)

The Falcons could go in a number of directions, but I think GM Terry Fontenot and defensive HC Raheem Morris will be drawn to Stewart's elite freaky athleticism, especially given that he has the size and versatility to line up all over the DL and the Falcons could lose EDGEs Matthew Judon and Lorenzo Carter in free agency.

Essentially, the Falcons need DL bodies—and what a body Stewart has.

As an athlete, Stewart is comparable to Myles Garrett.

Of course, his college production was as un-Garrett-like as it gets. Last year, Stewart had just 1.5 sacks. That's why he's going No. 15 instead of No. 1.

But he absolutely tore up the combine with his physical testing.

• Broad Jump: 10 feet, 11 inches
• Vertical Jump: 40 inches
• 40-Yard Dash: 4.59 seconds

After a showing like that, I expect Stewart to go in the top half of Round 1, and I was tempted to make him the No. 2 EDGE in the class and slot him to the Saints at No. 9.

1.16: Cardinals - EDGE Mykel Williams (Georgia)

Williams is young (the urns 21 years old in June) and was a key contributor to Georgia's defense over the past three seasons. As a freshman, he actually led the championship-winning Bulldogs in sacks (4.5).

With Williams placed in a rotation featuring EDGEs Josh Sweat, Baron Browning, Zaven Collins, and BJ Ojulari, third-year HC Jonathan Gannon might finally have the pass-rushing dynamism that powered his unit to success when he was the 2021-22 Eagles DC.

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