49ers at Eagles

I hoped these two teams would face off in the NFC Championship Game. Partly because this isn’t a rematch from last year or earlier in the regular season like the Bengals-Chiefs game. But also because they’re the two best teams by our ELO model. I mentioned that the final four are all top five in total DVOA, but the 49ers and Eagles are both in the top three. You couldn’t pit two better squads against each other and San Francisco, at least on paper, has the edge.

All right. Let’s get this out of the way. Brock Purdy has played well. Is he worthy of an Offensive Rookie of the Year award? Well, no. It’s not called “Rookie of Part of the Year,” despite Purdy having the highest EPA per dropback among the freshmen passers since Week 14. But that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been part of the team’s success.

 You can contextualize Purdy’s on-field performance all you want. His receiver’s after-the-catch abilities account for 48.7% of his passing yards in the playoffs. Sure. The 49ers’ personnel create too many mismatches, giving Purdy easy paths to first downs. Okay, so he works well within Kyle Shanahan’s scheme. But over his last two games, he’s been more efficient than Patrick Mahomes by EPA. He has zero turnover-worthy plays per PFF. So, let’s give Purdy his due while acknowledging the crew around him.

Now let’s say the Eagles’ pass coverage short-circuits his processing. Opposing teams have found more success on the interior, which bodes well for Jauan Jennings and Brandon Aiyuk. Still, for the sake of argument, let’s assume San Francisco needs a counterpunch. If so, the 49ers’ offense still has the upper hand.

There’s a sample-size difference, as the Eagles have played just one playoff game, but the comparison between the defenses is stark. And taking each team’s competition into account doesn’t make me feel much better about Philadelphia’s run defense.

Saquon Barkley had two explosive plays on his nine rushing attempts in the divisional match. Brock Purdy won’t run like Daniel Jones, but Deebo Samuel out of the backfield could match Jones’ average of 3 yards before contact. Injuries may hamper San Francisco’s running game, but they have the advantage heading into Sunday.

Meanwhile, the Eagles get the impossible task of keeping up with the 49ers. We saw flashes of it with Seattle, and Dallas was within one (hilarious) possession of pulling off the upset. Both had the right ideas of challenging San Francisco’s defense, but their personnel came up short. Luckily, Philadelphia has the right staff and players to execute.

Let’s start with the passing game. Geno Smith’s interception didn’t come until the second half, and Dak Prescott was a step behind the 49ers’ defense. But both found a modicum of success on short-area attempts when they got the ball out fast.

Smith used quick-game passes on 56.1% of his dropbacks to combat San Francisco's pass rush. Dak was right behind him at 50.0%. As a result, each quarterback saw over 75.0% of their throws at depths of ten air yards or less. In those scenarios, the onus is on the receiver to keep the ball moving past the catch point. CeeDee Lamb (4.0 yards after the catch per reception) did it for Prescott, but Dallas needed more players like him on the field. Coincidentally, Hurts has them.

 Hurts threw more short passes (66.7%), but his pass catchers averaged over a yard more after the catch. It was how DeVonta Smith found the paint last Saturday. And with Smith and Dallas Goedert leading the team in YAC during the Divisional Round and throughout the regular season (when Goedert was healthy), the passing game alone presents a problem for the 49ers. And then there’s Hurts’ rushing ability.

Having a mobile quarterback is another way to neutralize a pass rush. Two designed runs from Daniel Jones made up nearly half of the Giants' first downs on the ground. Josh Allen barreled his way into the end zone for Buffalo’s only score. Hurts ended the regular season with the most rushing first downs of any passer despite missing two games. Plus, he’s been the second-most efficient rusher on designed attempts through the Divisional Round. The 49ers’ defense will stress the Eagles up front and along the perimeter throughout the game, but Hurts’ dual-threat ability will be their ticket to the Super Bowl.