49ers at Raiders

The 49ers won their eighth game in a row last week against the Commanders and moved to 11-4 on the season. While it’s a longshot (and involves the Eagles losing their last two games) the 49ers do have a small mathematical shot at getting the one seed in the NFC and a first round bye. They can also still certainly still move past the Vikings for the second seed. 

With that in mind, don’t expect anything less than a full effort from the 49ers’ in this game, which makes backing the now Jarrett Stidham-led Raiders a very scary proposition. San Francisco has averaged 6.8 yards per play over the last three games, the best mark in the league, and will be taking on a Raiders defense that ranks 20th in DVOA against the run and 28th in DVOA against the pass. Las Vegas is also a sturdy 4-1-1 at hitting over on its game totals at home this season. 

A big part of the 49ers success of late has been tied to Brock Purdy, who has managed just fine coming off the bench, averaging 7.9 yard per pass attempt and a completion rate over 67%. Purdy has become quick friends with George Kittle, who looks revitalized of late and has averaged right around 17.0 yards per reception the last two games. The Raiders just allowed a seven catch game to the Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth and have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to the position this season. Kittle should continue to feast, although game flow and a dominant 49ers defense could certainly limit his volume. 

If Kittle has just an average day, it’s likely because Christian McCaffrey decided to soak up a bunch of touches and potentially find the endzone on more than one occasion. The Raiders got pummeled on the ground two weeks ago by another strong all-around back in Rhamondre Stevenson for 172 yards, and McCaffrey himself only took 17 touches last week so he should be fresh for this matchup. Unless the Raiders’ offense jumps out to a bigger lead early, look for McCaffrey to take closer to the 32 touches he did in Week 15 against the Seahawks. His total rushing/receiving yardage is worth taking a look at this week when his player props drop.  

The other side of the game doesn’t need as much analysis. The Raiders are going up against a tough San Francisco front that is now ranked first in defensive rush DVOA. The Josh Jacobs breakout season may be about to endure its second poor week in a row after he went for just 43 yards on 15 carries last week against the Steelers. 

While Derek Carr had endured a poor month of December – he managed just a 53% completion rate and 6 TDs vs 7 INTs – the fact he was benched for Jarrett Stidham still comes as a massive shock. Stidham has posted just a 52.5% completion rate and a 5.6 yards per attempt rate over 11 career appearances. With the Raiders out of it, evaluating players for next season does make sense but benching the leader of the team (and a player with $65,277,519 in guaranteed money) isn’t likely to go over well with fans or the team's veterans. 

The Stidham move has caused a massive shift in the complexion of this game. San Francisco went from -6.0 to -10.5 favorites and, with multiple days before kickoff, seeing this spread rise towards the two TD mark would not be overly shocking. The Raiders have waved the white flag and the 49ers have everything to play for against their former Bay area rivals. Look for a blowout win with the defense and Christian McCaffrey doing most of the heavy lifting.