49ers at Seahawks

This is undoubtedly the Thanksgiving game with the biggest real world ramifications. The Seahawks took a step back last week with a loss to the Rams (2nd loss to the Rams on the season) and now sit a full game back of the 7-3 49ers at 6-4. Despite being 6.0-7.0 point underdogs, Seattle can actually overtake the 49ers with a win on Thursday. It will be an uphill battle, but Seattle has played two teams with wins over the 49ers (Browns, Bengals) close this season. 

The news to watch for this game is the status of Geno Smith (elbow), who bruised his elbow late in the loss to the Rams but appeared to suffer no structural damage. Head coach Pete Carroll has stated that he thinks Smith will be able to play and the outlook does look decent for Smith to be able to suit up. 

The Seahawks do have one of the more high profile backups in Drew Lock—who at one point was in a competition with Smith to be Seattle’s starter. Even though Lock is capable, if Smith were to sit you can expect this line to shoot toward the 49ers' side fast and potentially close over 7.0. As of now, the fact that the spread has been sitting under the key number of 7.0 at 6.5 suggests that Smith is likely to play. 

Matchup-wise, expect a close physical game. The two games between these teams last year resulted in scores of 27-7 and 21-13. While the first game was more of a 49ers romp, the second game was much closer and a physical affair with little scoring. Seattle had trouble running the ball in those games against the 49ers last year, and with Kenneth Walker looking highly questionable, the Seahawks will lean on rookie Zach Charbonnet (15-47, 6-22), who has looked good this season in limited usage. 

Seattle is just 17th in yards per rush attempt, but teams like the Bengals and Browns have been able to run on the 49ers—whose rush defense isn’t as dominant as it has been in past seasons. 

Sep 24, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet (26) rushes against the Carolina Panthers during the fourth quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The truth is, if Seattle has success moving the ball, they’ll need Smith to be a fast healer but also need Tyler Lockett’s hamstring to hold up. Lockett has torn up the 49ers at various points in his career and over his last six games against them has averaged 7.16 catches, 67 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game. If Lockett’s outlook worsens, Seattle could be in big trouble with a banged-up Smith and no Kenneth Walker.

On the other side of the ball, expect the Seahawks' secondary to have their hands full with San Francisco’s elite offense (1st in offensive DVOA). Brock Purdy has rebounded brilliantly from the first rough patch of his career and completed 78% of his passes for 12.33 yards per attempt over his last two games. His six TD passes over that span also vaulted him up to 18 TDs on the year, just four back of leader Josh Allen. 

Everything points to the 49ers in this game given the multitude of injury issues Seattle is facing. One trend that is worth noting is how good Seattle has been as underdogs at home. Since the start of 2020, Seattle has been placed as an underdog at home seven times and has a 5-2 ATS record in those games over that span. If you like Seattle, waiting to see if the line moves back to +7.0 is likely the right call. It’s hard to see enough bets coming in on the Seahawks to push this under 6.0 (given the injuries they are dealing with). 

While Seattle could surprise and keep this game close, I'd prefer to attack the total with an under, which is sitting at 43.0, and 43.5 in spots. I mentioned the scores of the two games between these teams last year (both went under 40 total points) and both sides are good at limiting big rush plays (Seahawks 14th in yards per play, 49ers 6th). Seattle is also 6-1 at hitting unders, since the start of 2020, when placed as home underdogs and seem likely to try to keep this game as ugly as possible given the condition of their starting QB.