49ers at Seahawks (+3.5) – 43.5 total

The Seahawks come into this Thursday nighter off a bad 30-24 loss to the Panthers, in a game that really wasn’t as close as the score indicates. Seattle has now lost three of their last four games and sits at second in the NFC West, two games behind the 9-4 49ers. The Seahawks are 3-3 at home this year and come into this game with just a +8.0 points differential on the season. 

The 49ers didn’t retire Tom Brady last week, but they may have at least started the paperwork. The 49ers routed Tampa Bay 35-7 despite rolling with third-string quarterback Brock Purdy, who threw for two TDs and 8.8 yards per attempt in his first official pro start. The win was the 49ers sixth in a row and they enter this week with a massive +120.0 point differential on the year, but are just 3-3 on the road. 

Despite these teams heading in very different directions in the standings of late, there are some concerns forming for the 49ers. Purdy (questionable – oblique) suffered an injury against the Buccaneers and his status for Thursday is up in the air. If he can’t go, then 36-year-old journeyman Josh Johnson, who has played for 14 different teams during his time in the league, would get the start. San Francisco will also be without WR Deebo Samuel in this game who suffered an ankle sprain last week. The 49ers look like they dodged the long-term injury bullet on Samuel (who was initially thought to be done for at least the regular season) but will be without his services for this game.

Seattle is also getting some positive news coming their way, as it looks like they’ll be getting RB Kenneth Walker back for this game. The Seahawks would love to establish some kind of run game after averaging just 19.7 rush attempts over the last three weeks, which is last in the NFL over that span. Getting any kind of positive yardage on the ground may be tough against the 49ers, however, who allow just 3.4 yards per carry against (best in the NFL) and are ranked second in defensive DVOA against the run this year. 

No matter who starts at quarterback for San Francisco, you have to figure they’ll still find a way to get the ball to Christian McCaffrey, and that in and of itself may be enough to win the game. McCaffrey was explosive in averaging 9.65 yards per touch last week and will face off against one of the worst rush defenses in the league in Seattle. The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most yards and TDs to RBs this year and you can expect Kyle Shanahan to be dialing up plenty of opportunities for both McCaffrey and rookie Jordan Mason, who himself averaged 5.09 yards per carry on 11 attempts last week. 

With the 49ers in possession of a semi-unstoppable rushing attack, and Seattle proving again last week that they are terrible at defending against exactly that kind of offense, this game will likely come down to the arm and legs of Geno Smith. Smith had his worst output game of the season in the Week 2 loss to San Francisco, but did complete 80% of his passes in that meeting. The former 39th overall pick from the 2019 draft has been sacked sixth-most of any quarterback this season and has been dealing with small injury concerns of late. He’s now thrown for four INTs in his last four games but has offset the mistakes with 8 TD passes. 

The 49ers are a team of alphas and on a serious heater at the moment. At the same time, the Seahawks have been the ones getting positive news on the injury front and have a quarterback in Smith who has put up plenty of elite metrics this year – and currently sits fourth in yards per pass attempt among all starting quarterbacks. If he does play, it’s also worth noting that this will be Brock Purdy’s first road start in the NFL and first divisional game as well. 

There’s legitimate concerns about the Seahawks, who no longer look like anything better than a fringe playoff team. However, whoever starts at quarterback for the 49ers this week will also have undergone subpar preparation. Despite the last three meetings between these two teams being decided by a TD or more, I expect Smith to at least keep the Seahawks close and potentially even pull-off the upset. The Seahawks won’t be a popular bet, but with the spread over the key number of 3.0, rolling with Seattle and the points is likely the right side for this Thursday.