San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh has a plethora of high-end offensive players who gelled well in preseason, and a QB/WR combo in Kenny Pickett and George Pickens entering the second year of development. Despite the upside, the Steelers remain the largest underdogs to land the AFC North division title at +500 (DraftKings). 

Steelers Week 1 Injury Notes:

• Cameron Heyward (undisclosed) - expected to practice/play
• James Daniels (undisclosed) - day-to-day

The 49ers enter the year as one of the consensus elite squads in the NFL and sit as fourth-favorite at +1000 to win the Super Bowl. San Francisco enters the season having committed to 7th-round draft pick Brock Purdy as their starter and also made the move to bring in Sam Darnold as backup and move on from Trey Lance. 

49ers Week 1 Injury Notes:

• Dre Greenlaw (hamstring) - questionable
• Nick Bosa (holdout) - questionable
• Jordan Mason (foot) - questionable

Game Analysis

There will undoubtedly be two schools of thought on this game:

• The side that thinks the Steelers are for real
• The side that thinks preseason is meaningless and the 49ers remain the markedly better team.

Both arguments have a point, and regardless of the outcome, this game will be telling for both teams' early-season prospects. 

Brock Purdy (UCL surgery) looked like his usual mobile and aggressive self in the preseason, but with the Jimmy Garoppolo safety net now removed, he’ll be pressured to mirror his 2022 production from the get-go. 

In week 1, Purdy will face off with a Steelers D-Line that is anchored by sack-master TJ Watt, who looked great in preseason.

We have the Steelers as the 4th best DL unit in our positional rankings, and with Watt back, I would expect their low pressure rate from 2022 to be a thing of the past.

The 49ers lost two key pieces to their offensive line in the offseason, and how that group performs against Pittsburgh is very worth monitoring for future matchups. 

The 49ers lost some key depth pieces, but they still have an elite stable of offensive studs in Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk, each of whom is able to take over a game at a moment's notice. 

Purdy’s lower aDOT will always favor Samuel and McCaffrey to an extent, but with the Steelers' offense also looking lethal, the 49ers may get pushed into some trailing situations that favor deeper passes to Aiyuk. Aiyuk posted career-best marks in most categories last season and is a solid redraft start and daily fantasy play for week 1. 

Jan 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals during the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

The Steelers will counter the 49ers' varsity squad with some premier talent of their own. Diontae Johnson looks primed for a massive season after going TD-less in 2022 and took a 38% team air yards share of all of Kenny Pickett’s passes in the preseason. He is going to be trouble for a 49ers secondary that lost S Jimmy Ward and gave up the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing WRs last year. 

Up front, the 49ers are still playing the waiting game with Nick Bosa, who is holding out in hopes of a new contract. San Francisco has the bodies to make up for his absence, but Bosa missing this game would be a huge blow morale-wise and likely make things less difficult for Kenny Pickett, who received a high passing grade last year for a rookie while under pressure.

The 49ers are likely to remain a top run defense in 2023 and ranked sixth in run-stop win rate (32%) in 2022. The Steelers averaged just 4.1 yards per rush last season but have an explosive element in Jaylen Warren, who is expected to see more snaps out of the gate. 

Warren adds another potential game-changing element to a Steelers offense that includes Johnson, a talented outside threat in George Pickens, and an elite stable of TEs with Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington. 

Verdict

Home underdogs are 11-6 ATS in Week 1 over the last two seasons, and even with this line moved down to +2.5 (FanDuel), the Steelers remain an enticing Week 1 play. Maybe more enticing is the over on the 40.5 total (FanDuel), which looks extremely low considering the number of elite offensive players we have on both sides. 

Expect a closely fought, competitive game between two premier teams, but don’t be shocked if the Steelers pull off the outright upset in week 1.