San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings 

The 49ers suffered their first regular season loss in 15 regular season games last week, when kicker Jake Moody missed a late FG that would have sent them off with a last-second win. It was a tough way to end the week for the 49ers, but the circumstances of the game against Cleveland—whose defense was able to dominate in the poor weather environment—should be noted. 

QB Brock Purdy (125-1-1) had by far the worst game of his career, completing just 44% of his passes and missing badly on several midfield and downfield throws. Purdy struggled in the poor weather, and perhaps his lack of arm strength finally shone through as a weakness that some had been suggesting would eventually lead to regression from the hot start he’s had to his NFL career. 

It should also be noted that even though Purdy played poorly for most of the game, he still put the 49ers in position to kick the winning field goal on the last drive. This week, he gets to play in a dome against a Minnesota defense that likes to blitz (57.9% blitz rate – 1st in the league) but has been blown up multiple times this season by good QBs/passing offenses. It’s worth noting that Purdy had lots of success against another blitz-happy defense in Pittsburgh (26% blitz rate – 7th in the league) back in week one. 

Purdy may be missing one of his favorite outlets in Deebo Samuel (foot – questionable) but even if Samuel misses, he’ll still have Brandon Aiyuk (4-76). Aiyuk was the only 49ers receiver able to find some room against Cleveland’s tough secondary, and is well overdue for a breakout game after not finding the end zone in four straight starts. Aiyuk will be a great anytime TD / alternate lines target when props get released for Monday night. 

Oct 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) runs after a catch against Dallas Cowboys cornerback Noah Igbinoghene (19) during the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

The other injury notes to worry about for the 49ers involve LT Trent Williams (ankle) and RB Christian McCaffrey (oblique). As of now, McCaffrey sounds like he may suit up, as the injury was reported as being more of a “pain tolerance” issue. The extra day may help in that regard. 

Jordan Mason—who has gone for 15 carries and 95 yards (6.33 YPC) the last two games—had a solid day against the Browns and has been acting as the backup RB, even with Elijah Mitchell returning to action last week. Mitchell may get some more activity soon, but look for Mason to potentially keep the primary reliever role—and potentially act as the lead back—if McCaffrey does sit. 

The Vikings' offense was also hampered by poor conditions last week, but for Minnesota fans there has to be real concern that Kirk Cousins (181-1-0) may be on the verge of a precipitous downturn with no Justin Jefferson. Cousins completed 67% of his passes last week but had a season-low 5.8 yards per attempt against a weaker pass defense. If he doesn’t bounce back in the dome this week, taking out a future on the Vikings under total wins (currently 6.5) might be a good idea.  

In terms of usage, the Vikings turned to TJ Hockenson as their primary target last week (27% target share), but he only managed 8.3 yards per reception and offers limited after-the-catch ability. Jordan Addison (37% air yards share in Week 6) is the big-play receiver to watch, but with teams now able to shift primary coverage over to him, the big weeks will likely be hit or miss. 

At RB, the Vikings continue to be happy with 2 yards and the pile of dust they get on every Alexander Mattison carry. He produced 18-44-0 on the ground last week, but new Viking Cam Akers could still only get on the field for one carry. Who knows when the Vikings will attempt a switch in workload, if ever. 

The injuries for San Francisco are a little worrying, but none of them are severe enough to warrant fading the 49ers. If anything, they have created a nice buying spot at -6.5 (and under the key number of 7.0) against a Vikings team that is 9-13-2 ATS since the start of 2022 and whose offense will likely keep flailing without their top player.