Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions 

The Falcons moved to 2-0 last week off the back of a monster day from their first-round rookie Bijan Robinson (19-124-0, 4-48-0).

Robinson was incredible against the Packers, averaging a stout 6.52 yards per carry, and saw his snap rate jump to 73% in Week 2 while maintaining an elite 79% route participation rate. 

It’s that last part that we might want to focus on for this game, as Robinson has a much different test coming up against the Lions. While the Packers haven’t shown much ability to stop the run through two weeks, the Lions' defensive line has been far more stout in that aspect.

Detroit has allowed just 3.6 yards per carry against and limited the first two feature backs they’ve faced to 23 yards and 43 yards respectively. 

Robinson’s rushing totals may take a hit this week (and be a potentially good under target for player props) but he could still break out in this game as a receiver.

Isiah Pacheco was able to gash this unit for 31 yards on 4 receptions, and Robinson is every bit as good and likely better in that facet of the game. 

Sep 17, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson (7) runs against Green Bay Packers safety Rudy Ford (20) during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

With Atlanta’s running game facing their first real test of the season, don’t be shocked if Desmond Ridder (237-1-1) has a small breakout game too. He’s not been forced to do much this year but has a 68% completion rate and is averaging 7.08 yards per attempt—which is 0.7 yards better than what he produced last season.

The Lions allowed Geno Smith to go for over 320 passing yards on 8.0 yards per attempt last week, and will certainly have their hands full with WR Drake London (6-67-1) on the outside. 

TE Kyle Pitts (2-15) was actually out-targeted last week by TE Jonnu Smith (4-47) for reasons Arthur Smith will take to his grave, but if there was ever a spot for Pitts to really break out, this would be it. The Lions have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the TE position through two weeks and ceded 132 yards to Seattle’s mostly no-name-brand TE unit in Week 2.

If Pitts doesn’t go off here, you can rightfully blacklist him (for those of you who haven’t done that already). 

The Lions' offense may be missing lead RB David Montgomery (thigh - questionable) which obviously makes this a green light special for Jahmyr Gibbs (7-17, 7-39). Gibbs has been somewhat disappointing as a rusher, but his 26% team target share from last week makes him extremely interesting for alternative line props and PPR scoring leagues.

Atlanta’s allowed 4.5 YPC thus far (11th-worst in the league) and this will be the best offense they’ve faced to date by a longshot. 

Amon-Ra St. Brown (6-102) dealt with some calf issues last week, but the team did describe it as cramping. His injury status will be worth monitoring. Atlanta has only produced three sacks thus far and allowed three TDs to two different WRs in Week 2 against the Packers.

St. Brown and perhaps even Josh Reynolds (5-66-2)—who scored twice last week, and has seen a 19.5% team target share through two games—could both be in for big games. 

The market is currently giving Atlanta a lot of respect. The line in this game opened around the Falcons sitting as +4.5 underdogs, but it’s dipped to 3.0/+3.0 in some spots already.

The Falcons needed a late drive and FG to fend off Green Bay, and they won’t be able to run the ball with the same vigor against Detroit’s improved defensive line. 

I’d expect the Lions to bounce back and potentially hand the Falcons their first L this week. However, waiting until the number creeps below 3.0 to 2.5 before you bet the Lions also seems like the right move for spread betting as well.