Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns

Don’t look now, but here come the Bears. This team had just two wins through their first nine games, but Chicago has now quietly won three of their last four games.

It probably should've been four straight wins, but they blew a 12-point lead with less than five minutes to go in Detroit a few weeks ago. They managed to rectify that with an upset win over the Lions at home last week, though, so Bears fans have to feel good about what they’ve seen recently.

The biggest revelation has been the defense, which looked like a subpar unit to start the year. However, Chicago's defense has come alive over the second half of the season. They’re fifth in EPA allowed per play defensively since Week 7, and they’ve been the second-best team against the run during that span.

And with Jaylon Johnson grading out as the No. 1 cornerback in the league per Pro Football Focus (PFF) over that time, this Bears defense has become a legit problem for opponents in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, Chicago ranks 13th in EPA per play on offense since Justin Fields returned from injury in Week 11. He’s found decent success as a passer, averaging 6.98 adjusted yards per attempt with two TDs and no INTs during that span, and Fields has added nearly 74 yards per game on the ground.

Dec 10, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) rushes for a touchdown against the Detroit Lions during the second half at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

While the offense is still far from elite, Chicago has been putting up enough points to at least be a legit threat moving forward. Even though they're not going to make the postseason, the Bears will be a tough matchup for their upcoming opponents, starting with the Browns this week.

Cleveland is coming off an “upset” victory over the Jaguars on Sunday in which Joe Flacco led them to 31 points. For a guy who was on the couch less than a month ago, that’s pretty impressive. The Browns' offense was struggling to score with Deshaun Watson, P.J. Walker, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, so Flacco’s success has been one of the biggest surprises in a year full of them.

That said, digging a bit deeper into the numbers, Flacco’s success has been more due to volume than efficiency. He’s thrown the ball at least 44 times in back-to-back games, and his average of 6.5 adjusted yards per attempt doesn’t exactly jump off the page. Flacco also ranks just 25th out of 28 QBs with at least 40 snaps played in EPA + CPOE composite.

Dec 10, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15) throws the ball during the first quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

With that in mind, it’s hard to see Flacco’s success continuing, particularly in a more difficult matchup against a Bears defense that's been heating up as the weather turns cold. This feels like the right time to bet on Flacco to turn back into a pumpkin.

Personally, I’ve already made two bets on this contest (which you can find in our NFL Bet Tracker): Bears +3.5 and under 38.0 points. The thesis on both is pretty simple: I don’t expect Flacco and the Browns’ run game to do much against the Bears’ defense. Cleveland also has arguably the best defense in the league – they lead in the NFL in EPA allowed per play defensively through 14 weeks – so I don’t expect the Bears to do much on offense either.

Overall, this feels like a low-scoring affair, so I’m happy to take 3.5 points with the underdog. My power ratings show significant value with Chicago at that number, and underdogs tend to correlate better with unders than favorites. I don’t normally have multiple positions on the same game, but I'll make an exception in this case.