Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers

The Bears head into this game off a surprise 30-12 win over the Raiders. Chicago dominated Las Vegas from start to finish, outgaining the Raiders by a 323-235 margin. The much-maligned Bears will likely be without Justin Fields (thumb) again, which means rookie Tyson Bagent (162-1-0, 3-24) will start his second consecutive game. 

Before we talk about Bagent, it’s worth noting the sentiment on these two teams as we head into Week 8. The Bears won in Week 7, but they also benefited from Josh McDaniels's bizarre decision to start Brian Hoyer. They ultimately beat a Raiders team, at home, who is 31st in offensive DVOA and 25th in defensive DVOA. Don’t start the parades quite yet, Bears fans. 

On the flip side, the Chargers lost to the Super Bowl champions. Admittedly, the last two weeks have been killer for the Chargers, who controlled their own destiny prior to meetings with the Chiefs and Cowboys but now enter Week 8 2-4. 

Oct 22, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The Chargers remain a completely unbalanced team whose offense has to carry the load most weeks, but also has a terrible record of coming through in the clutch. The shine has worn off Justin Herbert (259-1-2) the last two games after he threw a horrific INT to end the Cowboys game and then proceeded to get shut out in the second half against the Chiefs. Herbert is still 12th in EPA + CPOE composite ratings but has looked poor in this Kellen Moore offense of late, staring down first-reads and making some bad decisions. He faces a Bears defense that remains a bottom tier squad (28th in defensive DVOA). 

The Bears did benefit from getting some key players back last week (Jaylen Johnson sealed the win with an INT), but this remains a great spot for Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen to get back some of their mojo as well. The rise of Justin Palmer (5-133) has been good to see, but the Chargers clearly miss the downfield body/presence of Mike Williams (ACL - IR). Rookie Quentin Johnston has seen his usage rise slightly (68% routes last week), and his one catch against the Chiefs was a back shoulder type of throw reminiscent of the ones Herbert used to toss Williams’s way all the time. 

If the Chargers can’t get Johnston going this week, or Herbert continues to stare down Palmer and Allen, you can likely write him off until the end of the season when/if the Chargers get eliminated (and they inevitably give him 15 targets in Week 18). 

On the other side, this will be the second soft matchup in a row for Tyler Bagent, who really couldn’t have picked a better spot in the schedule to get some starts. The former Div II super star was efficient against Las Vegas (72% completion rate) but only averaged 6.28 yards per attempt. 

The Bears played it safe with Bagent, rarely having him throw into tough spots, and it worked against a poor Raiders team who put up 12 points. With the Chargers' offense likely to double that total or more, Bagent will likely be forced to make some tougher throws this week. 

The Chargers' rush defense has improved this year (16th, 3.9 YPC against) but their pass defense is a tire fire, wrapped in a dumpster fire (sealed in a nuclear waste facility). The Chargers are now last in yards per pass attempt against (8.1) and have allowed the most passing yards to opposing QBs, despite having had their bye week already. 

DJ Moore, who saw nine of Bagent’s 29 passes come his way last week, should have a field day in this spot, and for fantasy and betting is also likely to see more downfield targets after he had just a 4.11 yard aDOT last week. 

The Bears are 6-1 to the over this year, so we could see plenty of offense with two poor defenses in play. Right now the total sits at 46.5 and has fallen a couple of points from open, likely due to the unknown factor with Bagent. The Chargers' defense is hard to trust but should be slightly healthier this week and likely bounces back against Bagent. At -8.5 the Chargers make for great teaser (-8.5 to -2.5) candidates as well.