Bears at Jets (-6.0) – 38.5 total

The big story in this game involves the quarterbacks. Zach Wilson is coming off a dreadful performance last week against the Patriots, completing just 9 of 22 passes for 77 yards. The defense did a great job of limiting the Patriots to just three points on offense, but they were able to win the game with a punt return touchdown essentially as time expired.

Wilson only made things worse for himself after the game. He did not take full responsibility for the loss, which seems like the right thing for a quarterback to do after putting just three points on the scoreboard. That apparently alienated Wilson from the rest of his teammates, so head coach Robert Saleh had to make a change heading into Week 12. Not only will Wilson not start versus the Bears, but he won’t even be on the active roster.

Things have been going in the opposite direction for Bears quarterback Justin Fields. He’s played the best football of his career over the past six weeks, particularly as a runner. He’s averaged more than 100 yards per game while scoring six touchdowns, giving the Bears some hope heading into next season.

Unfortunately, Fields suffered a partially torn ligament in his shoulder at the end of last week’s loss to the Falcons. He’s been limited at practice to start the week and reports say he’s unlikely to suit up against the Jets.

That sets up a potential matchup between Mike White and Trevor Siemian, which is not exactly must-see TV. The last time we saw White, he threw four interceptions in a loss to the Bills, while Siemian was 0-4 as a starter last season.

The one thing you can count on in this matchup is the Jets’ defense. They’ve been one of the best defensive teams in football this season, ranking sixth in defensive DVOA. They have a top-eight unit against the run and the pass, so it’s hard to envision Siemian having a ton of success in this spot.

White has the potential for a better performance against the Bears, who are just 30th in defensive DVOA. Still, White averaged just 5.3 adjusted yards per attempt last season, so I wouldn’t expect him to be an upgrade over Wilson.

The best play in this contest might be the under; 38.5 is a low number, but the sharps have shown plenty of interest in fading these quarterbacks. The under has received 73% of the bets and 82% of the dollars, so this number could continue to decrease before kickoff.