Bears at Lions

Both of these teams enter the week off of wins, wins that came under very different circumstances. Chicago managed to hold off the Panthers on Thursday Night Football last week in a game that was dominated by the Bears' defense. The Lions won an old fashioned shootout against the Chargers in L.A.

Chicago’s line has been stellar against the run of late, and comes in allowing just 3.2 yards per rush against. In the secondary, CB Jaylen Johnson has helped solidify their back end, and they’ve allowed just 6.0 yards per attempt over their last three games as well. They face a stiff test this week as the Lions are a top tier rushing defense and averaged 7.42 yards per carry last week against the Chargers. 

Still, this is likely a spot where the Lions will need Jared Goff to be efficient and move the chains for them with his arm. That’s not a huge concern if you’re a Lions fan as Goff ranks 10th in EPA per play on the season among QBs and has the services of one of the best route runners in the NFL in Amon-Ra St. Brown (8-156-1). 

Nov 12, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) runs with the ball against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Bears will likely be getting Justin Fields back for this week’s matchup, although he hasn’t been announced as starter just yet. Backup Tyson Bagent has gone 2-2 since Fields went down, and the Bears are 2-1-1 ATS over that period as well. Chicago has been playing solid, defensive-minded football with Bagent in, and it is noteworthy that the rookie enters Week 11 with the lowest sack rate in the entire league. Fields has the second-highest sack rate and will face a Detroit defensive line that is 9th in pressure rate. 

While there may be more turbulence in the pocket with Fields playing, there is also little doubt that he gives them a far better chance at landing some explosive plays—a key for playing a team like Detroit who is 4th in offensive DVOA and 4th in yards per play. DJ Moore posted back-to-back 100+ yard games with Fields before he went down with injury but never managed to cross 60 yards in a game with Bagent. He also saw his target share dip under 30% in three straight games—something that rarely happened with Fields under center. 

The Lions' secondary got roasted by Keenan Allen and the Chargers last week and has, in general, been poor at guarding against opposing WR1s. They’re allowing 8.5 yards per pass attempt over the last three games and have smaller starting corners who will find life tough guarding against a big, physical WR like Moore. 

Moore’s in a clear bounce-back spot and will be a player to look toward for DFS and alternate line betting once props get announced. 

The line in this game opened at 7.5 but has shot up to 10.0. The market seems to be giving Justin Fields very little credit right now, which is perhaps warranted based on the Bears' actual record with him under center. Still, Chicago has been under-the-radar solid on defense their last couple of starts and are catching a Lions team off an emotional win. 

Fields ran for 279 yards against Detroit in two games last year and managed to keep the game extremely close in their first meeting of 2022 (31-30 loss). While the Lions have been solid bets most of the year (7-2 ATS), 10+ points in a divisional matchup is a lot to cover, especially given the points Detroit allowed last week. 

This isn’t a an upset call, but I’d wary of taking the Lions with the big spread. Fields is in a bit of a career defining moment—given all the talk about how the team may be better off without him—and he’ll have DJ Moore riding shotgun to attack this weaker secondary. 

The line is sitting at 10.0 right now, but it does seem on the verge of dropping, and could move dramatically back to 7.5/8.0 if Fields gets announced as starter. It’s risky, as the Bears could choose to ride with Bagent once more, but there is good opportunity early in the week to potentially grab some good closing line value on the Bears.