Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers

This is undoubtedly one of the best games of the Week 18 slate. While Chicago has nothing to play for but pride, they’ve played as well as anyone over the past six weeks. The Bears have gone 4-2 in their last six contests, and their two losses were both games where they were leading by multiple scores in the fourth quarter.

Chicago has a big decision looming with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but they’re making a legit case to just run things back with Justin Fields for another year.

Meanwhile, Green Bay is trying to sneak into the playoffs after a disastrous 2-5 start. They’ve rebounded to win five of their past seven games, having beaten decent teams like the Lions, Chiefs, and Vikings over that span. A win over the Bears would guarantee them a spot in the postseason.

Jordan Love took over as the Packers’ starter this season, and things have gone better than anyone could’ve imagined. He got off to a slow start, but since Week 8, he’s played well. Love ranks fourth among QBs in EPA + CPOE over that span behind only Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, and Jalen Hurts. The jury is still out on Love, but the early consensus is that Green Bay may have managed to find yet another franchise QB to succeed decades of dominance from Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers.

Dec 31, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) throws a pass against the Minnesota Vikings during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

The Packers rolled to an easy win over the Vikings in Week 17, thanks in large part due to the Vikings' ill-fated decision to start Jaren Hall. Green Bay jumped out to an early lead, and Minnesota was unable to close the gap even after switching back to Nick Mullens in the second half.

However, the Packers are dealing with an abundance of absences. They were missing a bunch of key players in that contest, particularly on defense. Jaire Alexander was suspended, and De’Vondre Campbell and Eric Stokes both missed the game with injuries. And on offense, Christian Watson missed his fourth-straight game while Dontayvion Wicks missed his second game of the season.

If the Packers don’t get healthier before Sunday’s matchup against the Bears, things could go a lot worse. Even though the Vikings’ offense was unable to take advantage of those absences on defense, the Bears can, as they've ranked a respectable 17th in EPA per play on offense since Fields returned to the lineup in Week 14.

Defensively, the Bears have also been phenomenal over the second half of the season. They acquired pass-rusher Montez Sweat from the Commanders before the trade deadline, and they’ve ranked second in EPA allowed per play defensively since Sweat landed in Chicago.

Dec 17, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Chicago Bears defensive end Montez Sweat (98) forces a fumble on Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15) during the first quarter at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Cornerback Jaylon Johnson has also blossomed into one of the best defensive players in football this year, and T.J. Edwards currently ranks sixth among linebackers in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade. Overall, this Bears unit is well-positioned to take a massive step forward next season.

Since the Packers are the team with "something to play for", it’s not surprising that they’re listed as three-point home favorites in this spot. That said, expect to see Chicago treat this like a must-win game. They’ve kept their foot on the gas pedal down the stretch, and they’d love nothing more than to keep their biggest rivals from making the playoffs.

The Massey-Peabody Power Ratings have Chicago as roughly one point worse than Green Bay on a neutral field, and home field advantage isn’t nearly as pronounced in divisional games. That makes the Bears a solid value getting a full field goal, even in Lambeau Field.