Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints

New Orleans entered Week 8 as one of the most disappointing teams in football. They grade out pretty well by most metrics, and they’ve played one of the easiest schedules in the league. Even so, they were still just 3-4 and trailing only the Falcons in the NFC South heading into last week.

The Saints’ big issue has been their inability to score TDs. The offense can move the ball, as they’re 12th in the league in yards per game, but they've struggled to punch the ball into the end zone. New Orleans was 27th in red-zone TD rate, having converted just 43% of their opportunities inside the 20-yard line into six points.

They finally figured things out in Week 8.

The Saints put up 38 points against a struggling Colts defense with three TDs on four drives in the red zone. In fact, New Orleans led the league in EPA per play last week even with 32 teams playing.

Of course, it’s worth noting that performance was against an Indianapolis defense that's among the worst in the NFL, but it's at least a glimmer of hope that the Saints' offense is on their way to righting the ship.

Oct 29, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws a long pass during the first quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

Fortunately, the Saints have another easy test in Week 9. The Bears have been even worse than the Colts on defense this season, and Chicago currently ranks 30th in EPA allowed per play. Derek Carr & Co. should keep it rolling for the second game in a row.

As for Chicago, Tyson Bagent is expected to start for the third straight game with Justin Fields sidelined with a thumb injury. Bagent has exceeded expectations as an undrafted rookie free agent from a Division II school, but it still wasn't enough to keep things close against the Chargers on Sunday Night Football last week.

In his two and a half games played, Bagent has now managed just 4.5 adjusted yards per attempt with one TD and three INTs. He could solidify himself as a decent backup QB in the NFL, but he’s probably not ready to play meaningful snaps as a team's starter.

Oct 29, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Tyson Bagent (17) throws a pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during the third quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports

Unfortunately, the Bears don't have another option, so this could be another ugly week for Bagent. The Saints are easily the toughest matchup he’s faced yet as a professional, currently ranking sixth in EPA allowed per play and fifth in yards allowed per game.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that New Orleans has already gotten plenty of love in this spot. They opened as 6.5-point favorites, but that number has quickly ballooned to 7.5 points. The Saints have also received 71% of the early spread bets per the Action Network, so this number could continue to move in their favor.

As long as New Orleans doesn't completely implode, which seems unlikely at home, then this game shouldn't be particularly close. The Saints have the potential to be a top-10 team on both sides of the ball, and the Bears' absolute ceiling this year is a .500 team. If you like New Orleans, you should lock in this number ASAP.