Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers

One of the most intriguing matchups of Week 8 will see the Bengals travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers. Both of these teams entered the year with massive expectations, but they’ve both hit stumbling blocks. Cincinnati enters this contest at just 3-3 while the 49ers are 5-2 but riding a two-game losing streak.

For the Bengals, their struggles have been directly related to the health of Joe Burrow. He suffered a calf injury during training camp that caused him to miss the entire preseason, and while he hasn’t missed any actual regular-season contests, he’s looked like a shell of his former self.

Burrow currently ranks just 30th among qualifying QBs in EPA + CPOE composite, putting him in the same tier as guys like Mac Jones, Anthony Richardson, and Zach Wilson. That would’ve been unfathomable to think at the start of the year.

However, Burrow has steadily improved as the season has progressed. He’s up to 13th in EPA + CPOE since the start of Week 5, and the hope is that he’ll be close to 100% healthy now following their bye. We won’t know for sure until Burrow actually takes the field, but optimism is already building among the team’s supporters.

Oct 15, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) drops back to throw during the first quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

If Burrow can return to his pre-injury form, the Bengals should return to being an elite offensive unit. The team still has the same core group of offensive skill-position players, and their offensive line has been roughly league-average in terms of Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass blocking grade in 2023.

Cincinnati could certainly use a boost from their offense because the defense looks like a regression candidate. They do boast a strong pass rush led by Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard, but the Bengals rank 27th in yards allowed per game despite being 17th in points allowed per game. They’ve been fortunate from a scoring perspective, but the advanced metrics show that the Bengals’ defense hasn't been great.

On the other side, the 49ers have some questions to answer for the first time all season. Without Deebo Samuel, the offense has struggled to move the ball in their past two contests.

Their performance against the Browns two weeks ago was certainly excusable. Not only are the Browns the best defensive team in football, but there were also some weather concerns. But only putting up 19 points against a beatable Vikings defense? That’s a much tougher pill to swallow.

Samuel will miss this contest as well, but All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams has a chance to return, which would provide a big upgrade. He was doubtful heading into the Monday night game in Minnesota and ultimately didn't play. Without him, the 49ers’ ground attack managed just 65 yards on 22 carries.

Brock Purdy only took one sack without Williams, but his production has also seen a noticeable decrease since losing Samuel. Purdy had two INT against the Vikings, and he’s averaged just 5.3 adjusted yards per attempt over the last two weeks. For perspective, Purdy was averaging 10.7 adjusted yards per attempt in his first five games of the year, so that’s a steep drop-off.

Oct 23, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass as Minnesota Vikings linebacker Danielle Hunter (99) and linebacker D.J. Wonnum (left) rush in during the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Purdy will always have to deal with the stigma of being a seventh-round draft pick. In some eyes, when he plays well, it’s because he’s in an elite system. When he plays poorly, it was regression that was bound to happen.

Personally, I still think that Purdy is perfect for running Kyle Shanahan’s system. Unfortunately, he’s not the type of QB who can really elevate his supporting cast. He needs optimal circumstances to be successful, and without Samuel and Williams, Purdy has an uphill climb.

With San Francisco reeling a bit, it’s tough for me to pass up the idea of grabbing the points with a healthier Burrow. Burrow has an outstanding track record of covering the spread as an underdog, having posted a mark of 12-3 ATS in his career when getting at least 2.5 points.

This number is currently at Bengals +5.5 across most of the industry, but it's dipped to 5.0 at some of the sharper sportsbooks. I’ve already locked in a play on Bengals +6.0 in our NFL Bet Tracker, and I’d recommend grabbing Cincinnati as soon as possible. It wouldn’t shock me if this number were to dip below 5.0 by kickoff.