Bengals at Bills

The Bengals and Bills meet this week in the official rematch from their canceled game back in Week 17. Neither team looked overly-impressive beating inferior divisional opponents in the Wild Card Round, but with a first playoff win under their belt, there’s potential for both of these teams to take a major step up in play in round two. 

The Line

This game opened at Bengals +3.5 but moved up to +5.0 in a hurry and has even hit +6.0 in some spots now. Just three weeks ago, the Bengals were home underdogs (+2.5) to the Bills so it’s not shocking to see that money was pouring in on Buffalo early when the line opened at just over a field goal. Since the line has moved to +5.0 and above, the money has started to come in on Cincinnati, with over 55% of the handle and 70% of the bets on the Bengals to cover as of mid-week. 

As to which side we should be targeting, it’s hard not to like Cincinnati in this spot. Since the beginning of 2021, nobody has been better at covering as a road team than the Bengals. Cincinnati is 16-4 ATS in road starts over that span and 8-1 as away underdogs. Further, playoffs have been kind to underdogs over the past five years. The underdogs went 4-2 ATS last week and are now 40-25 ATS in playoff games since 2017.  

The Bills, meanwhile, have struggled to pay off for bettors both at home and against tougher competition. Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with records of .600 or better. 

Injuries & Notes

Buffalo Cornerback Dane Jackson was able to log a full practice on Thursday and has no injury designation going into this week. S Micah Hyde was activated off IR this week, but has already been ruled out for this game by the team. Cincinnati may be down two starting offensive linemen for this game. Left tackle Jonah Williams dislocated his kneecap last week and is out for this matchup. La'el Collins (ACL) has been lost for the year and right guard Alex Cappa (ankle) is out after injuring himself in last week’s game. 

The Matchup

Buffalo’s offensive line gave up seven sacks to Miami last week and one of those plays landed the Dolphins a five-yard fumble return TD. The Bengals’ opportunistic defense scored a fumble return TD of their own last week and should be salivating at the fact that Miami had so much success last week against the Bills O-Line. The Bengals rank fourth in sacks per game over the last three weeks and will likely force Josh Allen into some bad throws once again. Allen threw two INTs last week and ranked eighth in time spent in the pocket this year. 

The Bengals haven’t done much in terms of INTs (they only have 13 on the season) but playing for an Allen interception in this game isn’t a poor idea. He threw 14 on the season total and has thrown a pick in 10 of the Bills 18 games this season. 

Cincinnati has been a stout run defense most of the season, but they did allow 4.55 yards per carry last week and the Bills were effective on the opening drive of Week 17 against Cincinnati running the ball. 

Rookie James Cook was a part of that short-lived success and has now gone over his 37.5 rushing total for this week in every game where he’s received nine or more carries. Last week he saw just a 39% snap share, but still out-touched Devin Singletary 12-10 in terms of overall rush attempts, and has out-touched Singletary in two straight games. This is a tough backfield to predict given that they have hit a near-equal timeshare in terms of touches, but the lower yardage total on Cook looks worth attacking in the prop department. A potentially beneficial game environment with the Bills installed as -6.0 home favorites should help his volume this week. 

On the Bengals’ side, their O-Line injuries will likely create problems in multiple areas. Joe Mixon has been ineffective running the ball of late, going for under 40 yards rushing in three straight games. Buffalo can be run on, but also rank third in defensive rush DVOA this season. They stuffed Jeff Wilson Jr. at every opportunity last week, ceding just 2.3 yards per carry to the former 49er. 

With his O-Line cratering and his RB not picking up the slack, look for Joe Burrow to potentially be a more active runner in this game. Burrow hasn’t rushed for more than 10 yards in six straight starts, but the Bengals have been playing some weaker opponents down the stretch and getting out to quick leads. Burrow’s rushing yard prop sits at 12.5 on Bet MGM this week but given that we’ll almost certainly be seeing Burrow drop back plenty late into this game seeing him go over this total wouldn’t be overly shocking. He’s rushed for 20 yards or more six times already this season. 

As for the receivers, one of the biggest edges we have projected in the prop markets is an under play on Tyler Boyd’s 36.5 receiving yard total. Boyd’s still seeing plenty of field but he’s produced just 8.64 yards per reception over his last four starts and has been losing target share to Hayden Hurst (11 targets over his last two games). Boyd’s 21.2 yard projection on Fantasy Life gives us a strong edge to attack with an under on his 36.5 yardage total. 

Conclusion

This game sets up as a classic chess match between two solid teams. The Bills have an explosive offense but make a lot more mistakes than the Bengals, who have been absolutely phenomenal in playing up to their competition over the last two years. It’s somewhat of a public play but simply taking the points at +5.5 with the Bengals feels fine in this spot. Buffalo’s more likely to win outright, but their inability to close against inferior competition makes them an untrustworthy home favorite for betting.