Bengals at Buccaneers (+3.5) – 44 total

This matchup features a number of big-name fantasy stars who haven’t quite lived up to preseason expectations. Both teams are firmly in playoff contention, but the Bengals appear to be the more legitimate contender of the two. 

Tom Brady and company will try to get the offense on track against an underappreciated Bengals defense that ranks 4th against opposing QBs, 12th against opposing RBs, and 4th against opposing WRs. Unless you have a very deep roster, you are probably starting Chris Godwin and Mike Evans this week despite the tough matchup. The difficult decisions come in the Bucs’ backfield, which has been nearly a 50/50 split in terms of touches in the two games since Leonard Fournette returned from injury. Rachaad White has had the slight edge in both touches and yards over that span, but whether he earns a larger share as a result is still to be seen. 

The Bengals seem to be hitting their stride at the right time, winning five games in a row. The bad news is that they have been hit with injuries to several important players. Tee Higgins had an all-time rug-pull on fantasy managers last week after not being listed on the injury report but then proceeding to play just one snap. He is apparently still dealing with a hamstring issue and has been limited at practice this week. All signs point to him being on track to play his normal role this week, but if you were burned by him last week, it will be hard to trust him again without more information. Tyler Boyd suffered a finger injury that was initially expected to cost him a week or two, but his participation at practice early in the week suggests he might not miss any games at all. Regardless of what happens with those two, Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Joe Mixon should all be in your lineup.

I have very little faith in the Bucs to get things figured out this late in the season, so as long as one of Boyd or Higgins plays a full time role, I like the Bengals to win this one comfortably despite being on the road.