Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs 

This is a matchup between the two AFC finalists from the last two seasons. While it was expected that both of these teams would challenge to be the Super Bowl representative for their conference once again, that certainly doesn’t seem like it will be in the cards anymore this season. 

The Bengals, after their loss to the Steelers last week, now sit as the 10th seed and tied with three other teams (Steelers, Colts, and Texans) for the final playoff spot. Thanks to tiebreakers, though, they are behind every team in that group and will need help over the next two weeks if they are to get the final wildcard spot. 

The Bengals' thin secondary got exposed badly last week against the Steelers as they allowed third-stringer Mason Rudolph to throw for 290 yards (10.74 yards per attempt) and two TDs. The good news for the Bengals? The Chiefs don’t have anyone equivalent to George Pickens in their receiver room who can hurt them the way Pickens did (4-195-2) last week. 

The Chiefs averaged just 5.34 yards per pass attempt last week and have scored less than 20 points now in four of their last six games. While you should expect more success from Patrick Mahomes in this spot, he remains stuck in the statistical doldrums of the worst season of his career (6.9 yards per attempt, 2.5% INT rate). From a fantasy and betting standpoint, it is getting hard to trust this Chiefs offense to do anything of note on a week-to-week basis. 

Dec 25, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) runs the ball as Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Tyree Wilson (9) chases during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

From a prop perspective, Rashee Rice is likely the one Chiefs WR we can trust to benefit from this situation and matchup. Rice has averaged 10 targets a game over his last five starts, and the Bengals have now ceded the sixth-most yards to opposing WRs. The talent level on Rice likely isn’t equivalent to Pickens or other teams' number-one WRs, but he’s in a spot to get big volume once again and will benefit from a much softer matchup than he had last week. 

On the Bengals' side, it’s likely that Ja’Marr Chase will miss this game as the Bengals don’t have much reason to be risky with their star WR. That should open the door for another big day for Tee Higgins, who has gone for 9 receptions, 201 yards, and 3 TDs over his last two starts. Higgins certainly has motivation on his side as he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year and may be in a “name his own price” place in the market if stays healthy and compiles a couple more quality starts. Given how thin the WR room is in Kansas City, the Chiefs may even be one of his suitors. 

The spread in this game certainly isn’t giving the Bengals much respect. Cincinnati was set as +8.0 underdogs on open, although the line has now dipped down to 7.0 at most sportsbooks. Despite the Bengals losing outright to the Steelers last week, they’ll benefit from a lackluster receiving corps on Kansas City and a somewhat regressing Chiefs defense that ranks 22nd in success rate against the run. 

Taking Cincinnati with a TD or more handicap seems prudent, although I do expect that the Chiefs will have more success running the ball themselves with Isiah Pacheco than they did last week. For same-game parlays, targeting Pacheco’s alternate lines in rushing yards and combining them with an anytime TD prop will provide some nice payouts worth chasing against this bottom-tier and banged-up Bengals defense.