Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Both of these teams made it to the divisional round of the playoffs last year. But while the Jaguars are in great shape to make a return trip to the playoffs, things haven’t gone as smoothly for the Bengals.

Cincinnati started the year underperforming on offense while Joe Burrow recovered from a calf injury. While he didn’t miss any game time, his play was clearly hampered. He looked to be 100% following the team’s bye, and the Bengals proceeded to rattle off four straight wins from Weeks 5 to 9, including two against other playoff contenders in the 49ers and Bills.

That’s when disaster struck. After a close loss to the Texans in Week 10, Burrow went down with a season-ending injury in Week 11. The Bengals lost that game against the Ravens, and they followed that up with another loss against the Steelers in Week 12. Although Cincinnati is technically still in the playoff hunt at 5-6, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they make a run without their star QB.

That said, Jake Browning held his own in his first career start last week. He completed 73% of his passes for 227 yards, one TD, and one INT and averaged 7.77 adjusted yards per attempt. Browning also finished a respectable 18th among QBs in EPA + CPOE in Week 12.

Nov 26, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jake Browning (6) is pressured by Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker Mykal Walker (38) in the third quarter at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kareem Elgazzar-USA TODAY Sports

While last week was his first NFL start, Browning has had plenty of experience. He played in a pass-heavy offense at the University of Washington, and Brown has been in the NFL since 2019. He’s obviously still a huge downgrade from Burrow, one of the best QBs in football when healthy, but Browning might be a serviceable backup.

On the other side, the Jaguars are coming off a huge win over their divisional rivals, the Texans, in Week 12. Houston won their first head-to-head matchup earlier this year, so that was a crucial win that kept Jacksonville in first place in the AFC South. The Jaguars are in driver's seat in the division now with a two-game lead over the Texans.

Still, exactly how good this Jaguars team really is remains to be seen.

Their best win came against the Bills, but that game was played in London with a clear travel advantage, and Buffalo has been a shell of their former selves in 2023 with major injuries on defense. Outside of that win, Jacksonville hasn't fared well against other playoff contenders. In fact, they lost by a combined score of 12-51 to Kansas City and San Francisco in those two games this season.

Nov 26, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) attempts a pass during the first quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Overall, I don’t think that the Jaguars are nearly as impressive as their record might suggest. Their expected record is merely 6.3-4.7, and they currently rank just 16th in yardage differential. The Jaguars are undoubtedly the better team in this matchup, but do they really deserve to be eight-point favorites?

Jacksonville has received more than 80% of the spread bets and dollars as of Tuesday afternoon per the Action Network, and the line has already moved to 8.5 at some books. If you're considering a play on the Jaguars at home on Monday night, it’s probably best to lock them in ASAP before this line moves further.

If you’re like me and prefer Cincinnati in this spot, waiting to see how high this line can get before locking in a bet is a good strategy.