Bengals at Patriots (+3.5) – 41.5 total

The Bengals and Patriots are in two very different spaces heading into this game. Cincinnati came back from a 17-0 road deficit last week to beat the Buccaneers 34-23. It was their sixth win in a row and the team is now 8-1 over their last nine games. The Bengals moved to 11-3 ATS on the season and are an incredible 25-10 ATS since the beginning of 2021. 

Meanwhile, the Patriots lost to the Raiders in almost inexplicable fashion last week after a last-second lateral – with the game tied – went awry and saw DE Chandler Jones score a long TD to ice the game for Vegas. New England had a 42% probability of making the playoffs before last week, but they are now just at 22% after the loss. Demoralizing isn’t the right word for the kind of loss the Patriots suffered, and you have to think there will be psychological scar tissue carrying over into this week. 

In terms of matchup, the Patriots defensive unit is capable of at least limiting the Bengals. They rank third in defensive pass DVOA and have allowed the fifth-lowest quarterback rating against this year. They were sloppy down the stretch last week, however, allowing a late TD catch to Keelan Cole, a play that was controversial in and of itself. New England has also tended to play in some very defensive battles while at home this year. They’re just 2-4 on the over in six home games this season and four of their last five home games have seen 34.0 or fewer total points scored. 

From a matchup perspective, all three of the Bengals’ top WRs are healthy and that’s going to create serious matchup problems for New England. They’ll need to get pressure on Joe Burrow, who has been sacked just 1.7 times per game over his last three starts – the eighth-fewest in the league. Vegas doesn’t have the depth that the Bengals do at WR, but eventually broke through to score on this secondary. You have to think Burrow, if given time, will achieve similar results. The Patriots have to win in the trenches and get constant pressure or you can and should expect more late-game misery for New England and its fans. 

In terms of the Patriots’ offense, Mac Jones completed just 41% of his passes for a whopping 3.6 yards per pass attempt last week against a bottom-three pass defense. Since a nice outing against Minnesota, Jones has now averaged just 5.31 yards per pass attempt in his last three games, with just a single passing TD over that span. The Bengals’ defense is well known for its complex schemes at this point, and could be in a spot to expose the Patriots’ passing game further. 

If New England does have success moving the ball, expect the bulk of the yards to be gained by Rhamondre Stevenson, who rumbled for 9.05 yards per carry and 172 total rush yards against Vegas. Cincinnati has allowed just 4.0 yards per rush attempt but generally are easier to run against than pass. Even if Damien Harris returns in Week 16, expect Stevenson to handle the bulk of the work in this game. While gameflow could work against him from a volume perspective, New England’s played in lots of close, low scoring games this year and Stevenson’s receiving skills will likely play a factor against a team that is great at limiting opposing WRs. 

Stevenson looks like a solid target for props in this game and it’s worth noting that he’s now caught six or more passes in three of his last four home games. Against a tougher pass defense, looking at some of the unders on the Bengals WRs may be a heady play as well. Early Week 16 projections on Fantasy Life have Tyler Boyd with a sub-30.0 yardage total. 

You don’t need to go out of your way to back the Patriots, but a close, low scoring game wouldn’t be overly shocking. Early forecasts call for cooler temperatures in the 30° F range with winds around 10 mph. With the total still above 41.0, an early week under bet feels like the best way to attack this game.