Bengals at Steelers

This game features two playoff hopefuls out of the AFC North. The Bengals enter this game riding a three-game winning streak after they overcame a 17-3 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat the Vikings in Week 15. They sit as the sixth seed in the AFC and currently control their own destiny. Win out and they are in. 

The Steelers lost their third straight game last week after they gave up a 13-0 lead to the Colts. They sit at 7-7 and now have two teams they need to climb over (Texans and Bills) just to have a chance at the last seed. They also enter this week with a lot of unsettled issues at QB after Mitchell Trubisky imploded in the second half against the Colts and forced Pittsburgh to inject Mason Rudolph into the lineup, who is now slated to start this Saturday. The one caveat to this story is that starter Kenny Pickett (ankle) has also been given an outside shot at making a return this week. 

Currently, the line for this game sits at -2.0/-2.5 in favor of the Bengals, but if Pickett were to be announced as starter, then we could easily see the spread flip to where the home Steelers become favorites. That makes sense when you factor in how terrible the Steelers have been without Pickett the last couple of weeks. We don’t have Pickett rated very highly in terms of spread value in our QB values chart, but it’s also quite clear that he’s better than Trubisky at this point—a player Mason Rudolph couldn’t beat out in preseason for the backup job. 

The Bengals' defense is also in somewhat of a tough spot for this game. They are already without top corner Cam Taylor-Britt and lost a cornerstone of their defensive line last week in DJ Reader. Cincinnati had plenty of issues limiting the dynamic Ty Chandler (23-132-1, 3-25) last week and may face similar issues in limiting the Steelers’ Swiss army back in Jaylen Warren. Cincinnati ranks 28th in success rate against the run and 26th in rush EPA as well. 

Dec 3, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (30) runs the ball as Arizona Cardinals linebacker Josh Woods (10) defends during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, the Steelers have to give Warren the ball to make this work. Last week Warren was sitting at eight carries until they gave him a couple more pity handoffs late in the game (instead of kneeling). Despite receiving just 10 carries, Warren once again out-gained “starter” Najee Harris, who managed just 33 yards rushing on 12 carries. 

The Steelers were winning games while still limiting Warren’s carries early in the season, but now that they are losing, it might be the catalyst they need to finally give Warren a starter’s workload. Regardless, this is a great spot for Warren to excel, and he’s been the far more efficient Steelers back all season. Coming off a slow game, his prop totals this week aren’t likely to be above where they were set last week—and will make for good over-targets if that prediction holds true. 

On the other side, the Bengals' offense is likely to be without top WR Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder), who is expected to miss at least one week and potentially more. Tee Higgins is coming off a great game where he found the end zone twice and should be busy from a workload perspective. Obviously, he’ll have Jake Browning and not Joe Burrow throwing him the ball this week, but Higgins has gone for 100+ yards three of the last four times he’s faced the Steelers. 

The Steelers feel like they are on the verge of a full Chargers-like implosion. Their rush defense has been embarrassed in two of their last three losses, and they face off against a Bengals team that has injected some rushing explosiveness into the lineup by giving Chase Brown more snaps of late. 

There are a lot of interesting props to look at for this game (Brown, Higgins, Warren) but spread-wise, I’d be laser-focused on Cincinnati. If Mason Rudolph does indeed start, then I’d likely consider taking the Bengals up to -3.0. But waiting on the Pickett news seems prudent. If he starts, the line will likely move back toward Pittsburgh despite the second-year QB being less than 100% and coming in with little prep time. 

The Bengals are no world beaters, but they’ve shown far better chemistry of late and set up as the team to back in this spot.