Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans

The Bengals may have saved their season last week when they held off the Los Angeles Rams in a late Monday Night showdown 19-16. 

Joe Burrow (259-0-1) was able to gut his way through a sore calf and lead the Bengals to a win, despite still not showcasing his best stuff. His 4.7 yards per attempt on the year is well below his career standards, and probably more shocking is his current 55% completion percentage that ranks about 10-15% below his career mark as well. 

Burrow hasn’t played well, but the fact that he was able to post a season-high 259 yards and find a connection with Ja’Marr Chase (12-141-0) is at least a step in the right direction. Chase had an 87% catchable target rate in Week 3, which was way up from Week 1, and should be locked and loaded again for another big week against the Titans' secondary—which is once again one of the league’s cellar dwellers in yards per attempt against (7.7 YPA - 29th in league). 

Considering what Amari Cooper (7-116-1) and the struggling Deshaun Watson (289-2) were able to accomplish in Week 3, the expectations for Burrow and Chase will be high going into Week 4. Further hindering the Titans' chances is their increasing lack of pressure on defense. While they’ve held up well against the run, they come into Week 4 just 24th in pressure rate and facing off against a Bengals offensive line that was solid last week and has allowed the fourth fewest pressures against this year. 

Assuming they can get through the week injury free, this will be a great chance for Burrow, Chase, and Tee Higgins (2-21) to reassert their superiority as one of the more dynamic passing triumvirates in the league. 

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase (1) breaks away for a touchdown reception in the second quarter of the NFL Week 7 game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Atlanta Falcons at Paycor Stadium in downtown Cincinnati on Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022. The Bengals led 28-17 at halftime. Mandatory Credit: Sam Greene-The Enquirer Atlanta Falcons At Cincinnati Bengals Nfl Week 7

If the Titans are going to make a game of this, they’ll have to do what they failed to do against the Browns, which is establish Derrick Henry (11-20) early and limit the amount of time Ryan Tannehill (104-0-0) has to drop back to pass. 

You can certainly argue that Tannehill was in a rough spot last week against the Browns, a defense that also held Burrow himself under 100 yards in Week 1. However, Tannehill isn’t in the same stratosphere as Burrow in terms of pocket ability or upside, and even with DeAndre Hopkins (3-48) added to the mix, he’s currently on pace to set career lows in yards per attempt, TD rate, INT rate, and completion percentage (59% on the season).

The Bengals' complex passing defense is also another trouble spot for the veteran. They were able to do what the 49ers and Seahawks weren’t, which is stifle the league’s highest flying passing duo in Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, by picking off Stafford twice and limiting Nacua to just 5 rec. and 72 yards. 

Cincinnati’s bigger feat may have finally been shoring up against the run, as they were also able to limit Kyren Williams (10-38) to just 3.8 YPC. A different test obviously awaits them in Week 4, but their history against Derrick Henry is encouraging. Henry managed just 17 carries and 38 yards when these two teams met in Week 12 of 2022, and a repeat performance could lead to yet another Tannehill meltdown. 

If that’s the case, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that this week marks the end of Tannehill’s tenure as Titans starting QB, as they have two higher-end prospects in Malik Willis and Will Levis sitting behind him. It’s something to note if you’re currently relying on Tannehill in a superflex or deeper redraft league. 

The Bengals have been beaten by physical teams like the Browns, who the run ball with purpose and have the talent on defense to stifle Joe Burrow’s opportunities. As we saw last week, though, the Titans, while they may play a similar game to Cleveland, are not the Browns. 

As much as betting against Titans head coach Mike Vrabel in these spots can be scary (he’s 21-13-1 as an underdog since 2019) betting against Burrow is potentially a worse proposition—especially now that he’s making gains in the health department. Since entering the league, the Bengals have gone 7-3 ATS as road favorites with Burrow under center and were able to cover a 2.0 spread in Tennessee last year with a 20-16 win. 

History doesn’t always repeat, but it often rhymes. Don’t be shocked if Cincinnati comes through with their second gutty win in a row and gets their record back to .500.