Bills at Bears (+9.5) – 39.5 total 

The weather for this game is going to be a concern. At the moment, the forecast calls for temperatures as low as 10° F and winds in the 20 mph range, which is well past the threshold to impact passing game efficiencies. We do have rushing quarterbacks on both sides of the ball, but this game seems likely to be devoid of many points. 

Some line movement we’ve seen in the last day or so for this game includes the total moving from 40.5 points down to 39.5 points, and the spread moving from Buffalo -9.5 to Buffalo -8.5. While the Bills are still going to carry a significant edge on both sides of the ball, clearly we’re being told these conditions are likely to favor the Bears, who if you remember, pulled off a monster upset in monsoon-like conditions against the 49ers in Week 1. 

Chicago will also face off against a Bills rush defense that was gashed last week by the Dolphins RBs in similar temperatures for 181 yards. Over the last three weeks, Buffalo has now allowed an average of 5.3 yards per carry against and will be in a tough position against the backfield of Justin Fields and David Montgomery, who also has a strong receiving projection of 24.5 yards on Fantasy Life this week. 

From a Bills perspective, expect a similar game plan to last week, which had them relying on their RBs as receivers in the red zone. Josh Allen threw short-range TD passes to both Nyheim Hines and James Cook in the win over Miami and overall, the Bills RBs caught six passes in the game. 

Cook looks like a particularly solid target for betting as he has a 16.8 receiving yard projection on Fantasy Life, which gives him a solid 6.0 yard cushion to the over on his 10.5 yard receiving total on BetMGM for the week. 

Obviously a lot of how the Bills’ passing game operates will depend on just how bad the wind gets, but it’s worth noting that Josh Allen threw for over 300 yards with a solid 7.6 yards per attempt last week in very cool temperatures. The Bears’ offense won’t be pushing the pace like the Dolphins did last week – and forcing Allen to throw 40 times – so any decisions on how to play Allen’s 224.5 passing total should likely wait until we get more clarity on the conditions. 

The Bears’ ATS record (5-8-1) isn’t much worse than the Bills this year (6-7-1) and the Bears are coming off a one score loss and cover to the Eagles. Overall, Chicago is also 3-2 ATS as home underdogs this season. The line has come down, but backing the Bears above +8.0 points has merit. The conditions could completely negate the Bills’ greatest advantage in this game and give the run-happy Bears a better chance to keep this matchup close.