Bills at Bengals

What a way to end the Monday Night Football season. There is no Monday Night Football in Week 18, so we’re ending things on a major high note as the Bills travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a potential AFC Championship preview.

This game has pretty massive implications for both teams. The Bills are currently on track for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which comes with a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. However, if they lose, their chances of securing the No. 1 seed dip to just nine percent.

The Bengals are also still in play for the top seed. The Chiefs would move into the top spot if Cincinnati beats Buffalo, but if Kansas City drops either of their final two games, the Bengals could overtake them.

No one thought the No. 1 seed was possible for Cincinnati after they started the year just 2-3. However, they’ve won 10 of their past 11 games, which has propelled them back near the top of the standings. Even if they don’t get the No. 1 seed, the Bengals can secure an AFC North title with a win in either of their final two games.

The Bengals’ offense gets plenty of credit for the turnaround, ranking fifth in offensive DVOA. Joe Burrow has bounced back after a slow start to the year, and he’s on pace to surpass last year’s numbers. He has some of the best receivers in football at his disposal, and they rank fifth in rushing DVOA as well.

That said, don’t sleep on the defense. The defense was one of the team’s biggest flaws last year, ranking just 19th in DVOA and 24th in pass defense DVOA. They’ve seen improvements in both departments this season, and they’re ninth in the league in points per game allowed.

They’ll need to show up on both sides of the ball against the Bills, who remain the Super Bowl favorites. It hasn’t always been smooth sailing for the Bills, but they rank first in the league in yardage differential and third in scoring differential. They’re also first in DVOA, and they have a top-four unit both offensively and defensively.

The Bills are currently riding a six-game winning streak, but this will easily be their toughest test since beating the Chiefs in Week 6. They’ve also had some close calls during that stretch, winning by three points against the Lions and Dolphins and one score against the Jets and Browns. Even though they’ve been the best team in football by most measures, they’re far from a juggernaut.

They’re slight road favorites in this contest, but the Bengals have been the best team in the league at covering the spread over the past two seasons. Including the playoffs, they’re 26-10 against the spread since the start of 2021-22, and they’re 12-3 against the spread this season. They’ve been nearly perfect as underdogs, posting a mark of 11-3 against the spread over that stretch.

That said, the sharps have shown some early interest in the Bills, and it’s possible that the Bengals have become a bit overvalued. They’ve deserved to lose their past two games, but the Buccaneers and Patriots both shot themselves in the foot. The Buccaneers turned it over on five straight possessions to start the second half, while Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled as the Patriots were going in for a potential game-winning score.

The Bengals are going to have to play much better if they hope to contend with the Bills. Either way, this should be a fun one.