Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers

Talk about two teams heading in opposite directions. The Chargers are coming off a humiliating 63-21 loss on Thursday Night Football to the lowly Raiders. And yet, that score somehow still doesn’t fully encapsulate just how embarrassing a loss it was to their division rival. Los Angeles was down 42-0 at halftime, and things were so bad that it was finally enough to cost head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco their jobs.

Meanwhile, the Bills have managed to pull things back from the brink of disaster. They were sitting at 6-6 just two weeks ago with matchups against the Chiefs and Cowboys on deck. With so many teams ahead of them in the standings, making the playoffs looked like a long shot.

Fast forward to Week 16, and Buffalo is still alive to make it to the postseason. They’re currently still on the outside of the playoff picture, but they’re massive favorites to beat the Chargers and improve to 9-6 on the year. The New York Times gives the Bills a 69% chance of making the playoffs while The Athletic has Buffalo at a 65% probability to make it there.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17)throws deep as he is pressured by Dallas Cowboys defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence (90). Photo Credit: Jamie Germano/Rochester Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Bills' win over the Cowboys last week was a major statement. They dominated with their ground game (266 rushing yards) and defense (195 yards allowed), two areas where the Bills have struggled at times this season. Buffalo outgained Dallas by over 150 yards in that game, so it was a thorough demolition.

After having embarrassed Dak Prescott, stopping Easton Stick should be a walk in the park. Stick will be making his second career NFL start, and it’s safe to say that his first couldn’t have gone much worse. He finished with three turnovers (one INT and two fumbles) and took three sacks. His overall numbers don’t look awful in the box score, but Stick was playing against prevent defense for virtually the entire second half, so his garbage time production isn't all that impressive.

The bigger question for the Chargers will be whether or not Stick will have his top WR for this game. The team was without Keenan Allen last week, and with Mike Williams already on IR, the cupboard is pretty bare if Allen is out again. Rookie Quentin Johnston is looking like a major bust, and Austin Ekeler is averaging a career-worst 4.9 yards per touch in 2023.

It’s pretty clear that the Bills are the superior squad here, but can they cover the spread? The sharps have shown a clear interest in the Chargers to start the week, as this line has already moved from 14.0 down to 11.5 points.

Dec 10, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) runs the ball ahead of Denver Broncos cornerback Ja'Quan McMillian (29) during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

This is one of the best situational spots you’ll ever see for Los Angeles. They should get a boost in morale from Staley finally getting fired, and the Chargers will have a rest advantage after having played last Thursday night compared to the Bills flying across the country after having played on Sunday.

Additionally, teams coming off a blowout loss have historically been excellent buy-low targets. Since 2005, teams are 75-44-6 ATS following a defeat of at least 35 points. However, it is worth noting that those squads are merely 0-3-1 ATS so far this season.

Still, the Bills are also coming off back-to-back emotional wins. It’s definitely a potential let-down spot, especially with the team playing a day earlier than usual.

All of those are great arguments for picking the Chargers, but I’m still siding with Buffalo. I trust Sean McDermott to keep his guys motivated, especially since they need to keep winning games to make the postseason. This is not a spot where the Bills can afford to take their foot off the gas pedal.

Also, how much of a boost in morale can the Chargers really get at this point? Their season has been an absolute disaster. They were expected to be playoff contenders, and instead, they're at the bottom of their division. With the Chiefs struggling, this should’ve been their year, and now they simply have to play out the string without their star QB.

I think that as long as the Bills bring their B+ game or better, they should be able to cover on Saturday. I’ve already locked a play in on the Bills in our NFL Bet Tracker at -13.5, so I clearly think that there’s some value on Bills -11.5.