Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders

It’s been a tale of two weeks for the Bills this season. They started the year with an ugly loss to the Jets, but they bounced back with a tremendous showing vs. the Raiders.

This isn’t exactly a new trend for Buffalo. When they play their best – and Josh Allen doesn’t turn it over a zillion times – they can beat anyone. However, they don’t seem to bring their A-game to the table very often.

Sep 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley (57) pressures Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Which version of the Bills will we see in Week 3?

From a matchup perspective, Washington falls somewhere in between the Jets and the Raiders. The Raiders boast one of the worst defenses in football, while the Jets have been optimized to slow down Allen. They gave him massive trouble last season as well, so his four-turnover performance in Week 1 wasn’t an outlier.

Washington’s defense looked like one of the best in football two years ago. They had an elite pass rush, with Chase Young leading a group of four first-round picks on the defensive line.

However, Young missed most of last year, and the rest of the defense suffered. He returned to the field in Week 2, but the Broncos moved the ball pretty well against the Commanders.

Overall, Washington ranks 17th in yards per attempt passing and 24th in yards per carry, despite facing one terrible opponent (Cardinals) and one pedestrian one (Broncos).

With the way the Bills played in Week 2, it’s hard to imagine them not putting up plenty of points in this matchup.

On the other side, the Commanders looked pretty weak for the first five quarters of the season. They just barely snuck past a Cardinals squad that was expected to be the worst in the league, and they fell into a 21-3 hole against the Broncos.

That said, they completely scripted the flip in quarter No. 6.

The Commanders rallied all the way back to beat Denver, outscoring them 32-3 from the middle of the second quarter through the middle of the fourth.

A late Hail Mary from the Broncos ended up cutting the final margin of victory to just two points, but the Commanders were vastly superior for most of the game.

Sam Howell looked like a legit NFL quarterback in that contest, completing 69.2% of his passes for 299 yards and two scores. He averaged 8.69 adjusted yards per attempt, and he moved to 3-0 in his career as a starting quarterback.

Jan 8, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) scores a touchdown against the Dallas Cowboys at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Unfortunately, some of his more advanced metrics aren’t quite as rosy. He graded out as the No. 18 QB last week in terms of Pro Football Focus grade, and he’s 16th for the season in EPA + CPOE composite.

Howell might be a good quarterback someday, but right now, he’s merely passable.

The look-ahead line on this game had the Bills as 4.5-point road favorites, but after their performance vs. the Raiders, this number shot up to 6.5.

Most of the action has been on the Bills at that number, with Buffalo securing 76% of the early bets and 91% of the dollars (per the Action Network).

The Bills were arguably my favorite target in Week 2, and I’m going right back to the well in Week 3.

They’re as talented as any team in football, which is why they’ve been among the Super Bowl favorites for most of the past two years. I’ve been far less impressed with Washington, so I’m willing to grab the Bills at anything less than a touchdown.