Bills at Dolphins

This is the premier game of the week for Week 18. The winner gets the AFC East crown and homefield advantage for at least the first two rounds. A loss by Miami would drop the Dolphins back into a wildcard spot, while a loss by Buffalo may even mean the Bills don’t make the playoffs. 

Buffalo will know where they stand before this game starts. If Pittsburgh OR Jacksonville loses, Buffalo will still get a wildcard spot if they lose this game.  However, both the Steelers and Jaguars are significant favorites this week, and if they do end up securing wins, then the pressure would get ratcheted up even further as a Bills loss would knock Buffalo from the playoffs. 

Despite the Dolphins being the home team—and the team with the better record—they are still the underdogs. Buffalo has moved up to -3.0 on the spread as of writing after they held off a spirited Patriots team last weekend. The Bills got down 7-0 in that game on an early kickoff return TD, but their defense got them back in it and ultimately secured the win. Buffalo picked off Bailey Zappe three times last week and allowed just 3.3 yards per carry to the Patriots RBs. 

Since Week 10, the Bills' defense has been elite. They are 4th in EPA per play and third in EPA per dropback. Of course, they’ll need to be at the top of their game this week because the Dolphins, even despite getting embarrassed last week against Baltimore, are still one of the most potent passing offenses in the league. The Dolphins rank second in yards per attempt (8.4) on the season and are third in success rate per dropback. 

Despite the elite offensive rankings, it hasn’t been a great month or so for Tua Tagovailoa. The former Alabama star averaged just 6.23 yards per attempt against the Ravens and has just five TD passes in his last four games. The good news for Miami fans is that this game is taking place in Miami, and that’s typically been a huge boon for Tagovailoa’s stats and the team’s fortunes. Since entering the league, Tagovailoa is 18-7 ATS at home. He’s also 5-0 ATS at home when facing off against a team that has a record above .500. 

One area where the Dolphins' home field advantage could be mitigated is on the injury front. Tagovailoa sustained a late-game shoulder injury against Baltimore, but the team (and Tagovailoa himself) stated that it’s not a big issue and he’ll be ready to play. The Dolphins were also without both Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle last week, and it’s yet to be determined whether either or both of those key players will suit up against Buffalo. On defense, Miami will be without Bradley Chubb (ACL) and likely not have Xavien Howard (questionable) either. 

Miami’s defense allowed a disgusting 15.21 yards per attempt last week to Lamar Jackson and will face off against a Bills passing attack that has sputtered of late but still has plenty of big play potential. 

Dec 31, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a deep pass in the third quarter against the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

On the Bills' side, the injury report for this game is also worth watching as Josh Allen (stinger-neck) took a hit late in the game against New England. Allen has shrugged off the hit, much like Tagovailoa, but it’s worth watching how much he practices this week in the lead-up. 

This game has a lot of moving parts. Miami would likely be the preferred side given the points they are getting—and their stellar home-field record—but they sustained a significant loss on defense last week and could still be missing both Mostert and Waddle. I tend to lean Bills (even at -3.0), but waiting on more injury news to see if this number has a shot at going back under 3.0 is an OK way to play it as well. 

One bet I do like for this game early in the week is the under. The Bills' defense has turned into an elite unit of late and likely would have kept their game against the Patriots much lower scoring if not for an opening play TD return. They held both the Chiefs and Cowboys under 20 points in consecutive weeks, and the Bills, as a team, are 5-2 to the under on the road this year. 

In a playoff-like atmosphere in primetime, where unders have dominated this season (unders are 67-35-0 in primetime games the last two seasons), the current 50.0 point total feels a little too high.