Bills (-9.5) at Lions – 54.5 total

As much as some things change, some things stay the same. I’ve spent my Thanksgiving mornings doing many things throughout my life, including watching the parade, playing football, and sleeping one off. That said, when 12:30 p.m. ET rolls around, you’ll find me parked in front of the television watching the Lions.

Unfortunately for Lions’ fans, that hasn’t necessarily been an enjoyable experience in recent years. They’re just 6-15 on Thanksgiving dating back to 2000, and they’ve struggled against the spread as well. That includes a 4-11 record against the spread as underdogs in their last 15 occasions.

Now, they’ll have to spend Turkey Day battling arguably the best team in the league. Buffalo didn’t look like their usual dominant selves in Week 11, but I think that’s defensible. They had to deal with extreme weather conditions, which ultimately resulted in their game versus the Browns being moved to Detroit.

Even in a fake home game, the Bills still racked up 31 points and 357 yards of total offense. That number could’ve been higher, but the team settled for six field goals to go along with just two touchdowns. The Bills rank second in the league in both yards and points per game, and when combined with their excellent defense, they rank first in yardage differential.

They should be able to provide more of the same against the Lions. Detroit has won three straight games, but their defense has still been extremely vulnerable. They’ve allowed at least 389 yards in all three contests, and they’ve been outgained by a total of 308 yards in that stretch. Overall, they rank 25th in defensive DVOA for the season.

That does not bode well for a matchup against the Bills, especially with a short week for preparation. Historically, short weeks have given favorites an advantage, posting a record of 119-95-4 against the spread dating back to 2003.

The Lions have fared well as underdogs under head coach Dan Campbell – he owns a record of 13-4 when getting at least four points – and the public surprisingly has some interest in them on Thanksgiving. However, the sharps appear to like the Bills, and I think they should dominate this matchup. There’s always a chance that the Lions walk in the backdoor, but laying less than 10 points with Buffalo feels like a strong wager.