Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

Week 7 pits the Bills against the Patriots in an AFC East showdown, but neither squad has had the start they were hoping for.

The Bills are currently sitting at 4-2, and while that’s certainly not a bad record, it puts them behind the Dolphins in the AFC East. They still have plenty of time to rectify that, but the difference between winning the division and earning a Wild Card is potentially massive. The team that wins the East could get a bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason, while the Wild Card team could be on the road for each contest.

Still, at least the Bills are in that conversation. After six weeks, there is almost no chance that the Patriots can make the postseason in the competitive AFC. Former players and fans are asking the question if the Patriots would just be better off tanking instead of trying to win games.

In reality, things haven’t been quite that bad for New England. They played close games against the Eagles and Dolphins to start the year, and they were just a break or two away from winning both games. Last week’s game vs. the Raiders was another that could’ve gone in either direction.

The Pats were blown out twice in the past three weeks, losing by 35 points to the Cowboys and 34 points to the Saints, but they’ve been pretty competitive otherwise.

Ultimately, New England is merely 19th in yardage differential despite ranking 31st in scoring differential. That suggests a team that has been more unlucky than bad.

Unfortunately, the Patriots might be catching the Bills at the wrong time. They lost in London two weeks ago vs. the Jaguars, and they followed that up with a disappointing win over the Giants. They’re now 0-2 ATS over their past two games, failing to cover the spread by a combined 20.5 points.

Sep 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley (57) pressures Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

I’d expect to see the best out of the Bills in this spot. Josh Allen has gone 7-4-1 ATS after failing to cover in two straight games.

Despite their recent struggles, Allen and the Bills still grade out as one of the best teams in football. Allen is third among quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE composite, trailing only Tua Tagovailoa and Brock Purdy, while their defense is eighth in EPA/play against. Overall, they’re second in scoring differential after leading the league in that department in each of the past two years.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are having a bit of a crisis at quarterback. There was hope that Mac Jones would revert to his rookie form with Bill O’Brien as offensive coordinator, but he’s on pace for a career-worst season. He’s averaged just 4.9 adjusted yards per attempt with five touchdowns and seven picks, and he looks nothing like the player who made the All-Rookie Team in 2021.

The team recently signed QB/WR hybrid Malik Cunningham to the active roster, and while he didn’t see a ton of game time, Jones’ grip on the QB job is definitely loosening. Even if Cunningham isn’t the answer, Bailey Zappe was 2-0 as a starter last year and could also warrant a look at the position.

This is ultimately a tough game to handicap. On one hand, the Patriots do feel undervalued. Despite their record and what the general public might think, this is not one of the worst teams in football. They’re 25th in the Massey-Peabody rankings, making them approximately three points below average.

However, the fact that the Bills are coming off two straight ATS losses means they could be undervalued as well. The fact that they struggled to put away the inferior Giants – something that basically every team in the league has managed easily – means this line isn’t quite as inflated as it could’ve been.

I would personally side with Buffalo given all the drama in New England at the moment, but I don’t think this is a game I will ultimately end up betting.