Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills

Bill Parcells once said, “you are what your record says you are.” If only things were that simple.

The Bills have the record of a mediocre football team at just 5-4, and they’ve now failed to cover in five straight games. Of course, we know that Buffalo is capable of so much better.

On paper, this team entered the year with as much talent as anyone in football. They’ve suffered some key injuries on defense, having lost Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano, but the Bills should still be a very good football team. They entered Week 9 third in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, which rated them as nearly seven points better than the average NFL team.

Nov 5, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) throws a pass against the Cincinnati Bengals in the first half at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The question is: will the Bills eventually flip the switch, or are they simply destined to never reach their full potential?

On paper, this feels like a good spot to buy low on Buffalo. They’re still fifth in points per game both offensively and defensively while the Broncos are below-average in both metrics. The Bills opened at -8.5 but are now down to -7.5 at most sportsbooks. That theoretically means there's some value with betting on Buffalo.

However, the sharps appear to like the Broncos in this spot. Denver has received 76% of the early money on just 37% of the bets per the Action Network), one of the biggest discrepancies so far in Week 10.

While the public might continue to want to buy low on Buffalo, it appears as though the sharps have had enough. After all, the team was in buy-low spots in each of the previous four weeks as well, and they’ve come up short in all of them.

Additionally, Denver has played better of late. They were the worst defensive team in football through the first five weeks, but since Week 6, the Broncos are 13th in EPA allowed per play. Plus, Denver faced Kansas City in two of their last three matchups before their bye, so it’s not like they feasted on bad opponents.

Oct 29, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) scrambles in the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Offensively, the Broncos have also improved as of late under new head coach Sean Payton. He’s seemingly revived Russell Wilson, who has averaged 7.5 adjusted yards per attempt with 16 TDs to just four INTs. That’s not quite as good as his best seasons with the Seahawks, but it’s a vast improvement over Wilson's first year with the Broncos in 2022. Wilson also ranks 10th among QBs in EPA + CPOE composite.

On top of their improvements on both sides of the ball, Denver also has a slight rest advantage in this contest. The Bills played on Sunday Night Football in Week 9 while the Broncos are coming off their bye. Buffalo also has a matchup against a tough Jets defense looming in Week 10, so it’s possible that the Bills could have one eye focused on their divisional rivals.

I’m not sure if I actually feel confident enough to bet the Broncos this week, but I can see why the sharps like them. Even though Parcells’s quote might not be 100% accurate, I think it’s time to seriously reevaluate what we think we know about the Bills.