Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

The Broncos come in off another embarrassing loss. Outside of one miracle comeback that was handed to them by Justin Fields in Week 4, and the Bears' own ineptitude, Denver has done well at finding new and exciting ways to lose every week. 

Russell Wilson (196-2, 7-49) took his turn as the scapegoat against the Jets, losing a fumble late in the game—after the Jets nearly gave away the game themselves. Wilson has actually been one of the Broncos' best players this season (not really an endorsement) and enters the week eighth in EPA per play among all QBs. 

Unfortunately, he’ll face a top Kansas City secondary that is 5th in yards per pass attempt against and just finished shutting down one of the better passing attacks in the league in Minnesota. 

One area to note in the passing game for the Broncos from Week 5 was the increased usage of Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy caught a season-high six passes and led the team with a 60% air yards share and 29% target share. With Jeudy now healthy after a preseason injury, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he takes over as the number one target from Courtland Sutton (1-13), who was shut down completely by the Jets. 

With Javonte Williams out in Week 5 (and potentially out this week as well), Jaleel McLaughlin took 56% of the carries and has been the Broncos' most consistent player on offense the last two weeks. The Chiefs' defense has been run on at times this year (4.3 YPC against), and McLaughlin is currently playing like someone who knows this is his chance to make a mark in the league and potentially gain a big contract down the road. He’ll be someone to watch for when player props get released and is currently projected for 10.1 car. + 49.3 rush yards on Fantasy Life this week. 

The biggest news to watch with the Chiefs this week is of course the status of Travis Kelce (10-67-1), who left last week’s game against Minnesota briefly (ankle) before returning. Kelce has been a warrior for KC thus far, and even if he doesn’t have the same after the catch ability he normally does, will still be a must start for fantasy purposes against Denver, who was falling all over themselves against Chicago two weeks ago trying to stop Cole Kmet (7-85-2 TDs). 

Oct 8, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) reacts to a first down as Minnesota Vikings safety Josh Metellus (44) looks on during the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

While he remains scoreless on the season, Week 5 was also the best game of the year for Kadarius Toney—from a usage perspective. Toney only managed 26 yards on five catches but led all Chiefs WRs with a 16% target share and posted a season-high 40% route rate. A breakout against a terrible Broncos defense (last in DVOA) is at least possible to see. 

There is also the chance the Chiefs may not need to throw the ball much this week given the state of the Broncos' defense (last in yards per carry against—5.9). Isiah Pacheco—who has scored rushing TDs in three straight games—has likely looked at the recent lines by RBs against Denver (Breece Hall, 22-177-1, 3-17) and is getting ready to make new contract demands after TNF is done.  

The spread in this game opened at 8.5 but has quickly shot up to 10.5. It’s always tempting to take the points with big underdogs in games like this, and for his career Patrick Mahomes is just 10-13-1 ATS as a favorite of -10.0 or less. However, Denver really is in their own special class of terrible right now and this line feels somewhat low if anything. 

There is also the weather to take note of. Right now KC has winds in the Thursday p.m. forecast set at 15 to 25 mph. That will drastically affect field goals and passing. The total opened for this game at 51.0 but has cratered down to 47.5. 

At this point, with that big a move from open, it’s worth waiting to see if there is more clarity on how bad the wind will actually be prior to taking a position. If the forecast holds, an under at 47.5 will still be warranted given how much winds over 15mph can affect offensive efficiency—and how bad Denver is as a whole.