Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins

These squads have both played two competitive games this season but with wildly different results. The Dolphins have posted a 2-0 record, while the Broncos are 0-2. While the Dolphins have been able to seal the deal late, the Broncos have let victory slip through their fingers.

The biggest problems for the Broncos have come in the second half.

They jumped out to a 21-3 lead over the Commanders in Week 2, and they held a six-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Raiders. Ultimately, the Raiders were able to secure the comeback win, while the Commanders came roaring back with a 32-3 run.

The Broncos biggest problems have come on defense, which is a complete 180 compared to last season.

The team brought in Sean Payton at head coach this offseason in an attempt to turn things around. They haven’t exactly been a juggernaut offensive, but the early returns are promising. The team ranks 15th in points per game and 16th in yards, both of which represent significant increases compared to last season.

The biggest change has been Russell Wilson.

Wilson was a franchise quarterback during his tenure with the Seahawks. He averaged 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt in his 10 years in Seattle, but that figure dipped to just 6.9 last year. Wilson has bounced back to 8.2 adjusted yards per attempt in 2023, so he appears to be back on track.

Jan 8, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) runs behind the block of tight end Andrew Beck (83) in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

In terms of EPA + CPOE composite, Wilson ranks fourth among quarterbacks. His Pro Football Focus grade isn’t quite as impressive, but it’s possible that he’s rediscovered some of his previous form.

Wilson is going to have to be on his game if he’s going to hang with the Dolphins. Miami didn’t get a ton of love in the offseason, with the Bills and Jets getting most of the attention in the AFC East. However, Miami has looked like an offensive juggernaut through the first two weeks.

The Dolphins rank first in a variety of offensive metrics: yards per game, passing yards per game, and passing yards per attempt.

They also have the second-lowest pressure rate, despite not having their best offensive lineman (Terron Armstead) in either contest.

Tua Tagovailoa is playing like an MVP candidate. He’s first in the league in EPA+CPOE and Pro Football Focus grade while ranking second in adjusted yards per attempt. Tagovailoa was brilliant when healthy in Year One of Mike McDaniel’s system, but he looks even better in Year Two.

Tagovailoa isn’t doing anything particularly difficult. He’s getting the ball out of his hands faster than any quarterback in football and simply letting his dynamic playmakers do the rest. The Dolphins have elite speed all over the field, with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert all capable of taking any touch to the house.

The offense should continue to produce, but the defense remains a bit of a question mark. They were terrible in Week 1, allowing 433 yards to the Chargers, but they were much more impressive in Week 2. Specifically, they went from allowing 233 rushing yards vs. LA to just 88 vs. New England, which was a marked improvement.

Dec 11, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) celebrates his touchdown scored against the Los Angeles Chargers with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Unsurprisingly, the Dolphins are starting to get plenty of love from the bookmakers. The spread was listed at Dolphins -3.5 on the lookahead line, but they’re all the way up to -6.5. That’s a pretty significant increase.

The Dolphins are getting plenty of public support in this spot. They’ve received 78% of the early spread bets (per the Action Network), which is one of the largest figures of the week. The public sees the Dolphins laying less than a full touchdown, and they want to lock that number in case it rises to seven.

That said, the Broncos appear to be the preferred target of the sharps. Despite receiving a minority of the tickets, they’ve racked up 67% of the dollars. That explains why this number has come back down to 6.5 after briefly peaking at 7.0.

In addition to being 0-2, the Broncos are also 0-2 against the spread. Teams that are 0-2 straight up and against the spread have been wildly profitable in Week 3.

It’s only natural for those teams to become undervalued, and they’ve responded with a 56-37 ATS record.

When facing a team like the Dolphins, the disparity becomes even larger. 0-2 teams are 16-8 against squads that own a 2-0 ATS record are 16-8 since 2005.

It may be scary to fade a team like the Dolphins, but if this number gets back to 7.0, I won’t hesitate to pull the trigger on Denver.