Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

These two squads have brought the drama this season. The Raiders made the decision to fire head coach Josh McDaniels following a 12-point loss to the Lions in Week 8 and handed the reins to interim head coach Antonio Pierce. It remains to be seen whether Pierce will be a part of the Raiders’ long-term plan, but he’s propelled the team to a 6-1-1 ATS record since taking over.

Meanwhile, the Broncos have been in the headlines recently after choosing to bench Russell Wilson. Wilson was acquired just two years ago to take over as the Denver’s franchise QB, but things haven't gone as planned. It seems likely that the two are destined to part ways this offseason with the Broncos incurring a record-setting salary cap hit in the process.

Denver did manage to secure a win in their first game sans Wilson last week, though, beating the Chargers 16-9. However, the Broncos are still out of playoff contention.

Dec 31, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Jarrett Stidham (4) attempts a pass in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

With Jarrett Stidham under center, the Broncos largely looked the same as it did with Wilson, which was probably part of Sean Payton's argument to bench Wilson. They managed to put up 313 yards of total offense in line with their season-long average of 299.1. Denver also had a similar -3% drop back over expectation rate (DBOE) in Week 17 compared to their season-long DBOE average of 2% in 2023.

The good news for the Broncos is that No. 1 WR Courtland Sutton could return this week after having missed most of last week's win over the Chargers with a concussion. If he can clear the protocol before Sunday’s matchup, Sutton's presence would certainly give Stidham a greater chance of success.

However, Denver will still have a significantly tougher matchup this week. Las Vegas has quietly been an elite defensive team since having made the switch to Pierce. They rank third in EPA allowed per play defensively since Week 9, and they’re No. 1 against the run. With the Broncos ranking just 25th in pass rate over expectation on the year, the Raiders' defense matches up well against them.

Pierce also isn’t the only guy in Las Vegas trying to prove that he belongs. The same can be said for rookie QB Aidan O’Connell. The fourth-round pick has started the past eight games for the Raiders, but his results have been uninspiring. He’s averaged just 6.22 adjusted yards per attempt with nine TDs to five INTs, and O'Connell ranks a dreadful 35th among 37 qualifying QBs in EPA + CPOE over that span.

Dec 31, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell (4) passes the ball in the first half against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Ultimately, O’Connell is probably not the future for the Raiders, but he hasn’t been an unmitigated disaster.

Las Vegas is also dealing with some injuries on offense. Josh Jacobs has missed the past three games with a quad injury, and rookie TE Michael Mayer has missed two straight with a toe injury. With nothing on the line for the Raiders in this game, the team might opt to play it safe with both.

Zamir White has more than held his own in Jacobs’s absence, having averaged 95 rushing yards per game in his three starts. With Jacobs entering free agency this offseason, the front office could hand the reins of the offense over to White in 2024 if he can finish the year strong against Denver this week.

This is one of the few games this week with zero playoff implications on either side, so it’s tough to get a feel for motivation. That said, it doesn’t look like either of these teams have quit down the stretch.

The Raiders are currently listed as 2.5-point home favorites, and there has been some early sharp action on them. This is probably not a game where I’ll ultimately have much action on, if any, but with how well Las Vegas has played defensively under Pierce, I think that they’re the preferred side.