Broncos at Rams (+2.5) – 36.5 total

The afternoon game on Christmas Day features two teams I would never have expected to be 4-10 each coming into this matchup. The Rams are without numerous starters on both sides of the ball and are somehow still just 2.5 point underdogs against a Broncos team that is getting Russell Wilson back this week.

This game will be telling for Baker Mayfield now that he’s had a few weeks to get familiar with the offense and will be playing in ideal conditions inside of SoFi Stadium. The Broncos’ defense has been great all season, allowing the fourth fewest passing yards on the season. They are also the only team that has more interceptions (13) than passing TDs allowed (12) for the year. I’m not a Baker believer and his 6.3 yards per attempt ranks 36th in the NFL this season, so I expect the Denver defense to get the better of this matchup.

To make matters worse, the Rams’ offense continues to lose pieces, with Ben Skowronek the latest player to be ruled out for the season. The passing game should flow through Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, and Tyler Higbee. Hopefully you aren’t relying on any of them in season-long leagues, but they all provide interesting options if you are playing the Christmas DFS slate. Jefferson in particular stands out to me as being underpriced across daily fantasy sites considering the lack of target competition and his role in the downfield passing game, which could allow him to pay off on just one or two big plays.

It seems Cam Akers has a firm hold on the lead running back role after handling at least 15 touches in each of the Rams’ last three games. If LA is to get anything going, it figures to stem from success in the running game that can then open up the play action passing game. Personally, I would like to see Kyren Williams get some runs before the end of the season, but that doesn’t appear to be in the cards for the rookie RB.

In addition to getting their starting QB back, the Broncos have also had Courtland Sutton return to practice with a real shot at playing in this game. His presence may be good for the offense as a whole but could cut into the targets available to the other pass catchers. Jerry Jeudy, who excelled while playing outside in Sutton’s absence, will likely go back to playing more snaps out of the slot. This makes Jeudy a negative regression candidate, and Sutton is difficult to trust coming off of a hamstring injury that caused him to miss two and a half games. 

If Sutton isn’t available, Jeudy should be a solid WR2 again this week but with this game kicking off after most others this week, you may have to make your lineup decisions without knowing Sutton’s game status. 

The two Broncos that are most trustworthy are Latavius Murray and Greg Dulcich, who are both low-end starters with decent projectable volume per the Fantasy Life consensus rankings. Neither of them offer tremendous upside, but in a week full of low game totals and nasty weather, you could do much worse at their respective positions. 

Our betting expert, Geoff, is on the Broncos at -2.5 and I agree. Their defense should easily limit the Rams’ offense and put Russell Wilson and company in short field situations. The Rams have very little to play for and are among the most talent-deficient rosters in the league following their recent rash of injuries. I think the spread should be multiple points wider and I expect the Broncos to handle the Rams with relative ease. There’s no way Russell Wilson could make me regret that prediction, right?