Broncos at Ravens (-8.5) – 39.5 total

The Broncos’ disastrous season hit a new low point in Week 12. Their offense mustered just 10 points against the Panthers, while the defense surrendered 23 points to Sam Darnold. The defense has been one of the better units all year, but they’ve started to show some frustrations with the offense’s futility. Nose tackle Mike Purcell was seen yelling at Russell Wilson on the sidelines, and while those two have reportedly buried the hatchet, there are clearly plenty of concerns about this team moving forward.

Specifically, Wilson is under contract through 2028, and he’s shown no signs of being the same player he was in Seattle. He’s on pace for career lows in virtually every category across the board, including touchdown rate, adjusted yards per attempt, and QB rating. Wilson was supposed to solve the Broncos’ issues at quarterback, but he’s simply created a more expensive, long term headache.

On the other side, the Ravens haven’t exactly been firing on all cylinders of late. They suffered a one-point road loss to the Jaguars in Week 12 in a game which they seemingly won. Their win expectancy got as high as 97.9% at one point, but a late Jaguars touchdown and 2-point conversation sealed their fate.

On a more positive note, their offense did rack up 415 yards of total offense against Jacksonville after looking sluggish in previous weeks. They had 319 yards or fewer in three of their previous four games and Lamar Jackson has struggled, with the team lacking quality pass-catchers. He’s taken a step back this season, averaging just 202.8 passing yards per game, and things don’t figure to get any easier for him against Denver. Despite all their struggles, the Broncos still rank fourth in pass defense DVOA.

The public has no problem backing the struggling Ravens offense in this matchup, with 74% of the spread bets landing on Baltimore. However, the sharps have shown some interest in the Broncos. Denver has obviously been worse than expected this season, but they’ve still lost just two games by more than eight points. One was against the Raiders back in Week 4, and the other was last week versus the Panthers.

Some of the betting trends also point towards the Broncos being the right side. Wilson has historically posted a record of 4-0 against the spread when getting at least a touchdown, while Jackson is 12-14 ATS as a favorite of seven points or more. Jackson is also 2-7 ATS at home following a loss, and the Ravens haven’t covered as a home favorite in eight straight games.

Betting on bad teams is scary, but the Broncos appear to be the correct side in this spot.