I realize this season has been wild. Every year is.

But the Texans and Broncos both being in the playoff hunt was not on my 2023 bingo card. 

I mean, think about where these two teams were 11 months ago. Russell Wilson had finally thrown for more touchdowns than the reported number of toilets he has in his house. Davis Mills was still the starting QB for the Texans. In short, things were bad. Hell, it looked bleak for Denver just a couple months ago. However, after a couple of winning streaks for both squads (with one still active), this game has more implications than just how many fantasy points we can expect.

For Denver, let’s give credit where it’s due. Sean Payton has brought vintage Wilson back into our lives. The former Seattle slinger hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 6 and has two top-12 finishes over his last three games. But his pass-catchers haven’t been as productive due to the lack of volume.

In Wilson’s last four games, his pass attempts have ranged from 19 to 35. He hasn’t crested 300 yards in a single game since Week 3. Courtland Sutton is the only WR worth rostering or starting, as he has hoarded 25% of Wilson’s targets over their last four games. Sutton’s seven red-zone looks lead the team, giving him the only floor-ceiling combo we can trust for fantasy. And, given the Texans’ defensive strength, we should look elsewhere for points. 

Javonte Williams has started every game since Week 7 and handled over half of the Broncos’ carries in all but one. He’s earned more than 10% of Wilson’s targets in the same number of games. Williams’s opportunity puts him in the mid-to low-end RB2 discussion, but folks in PPR leagues have another option.

Jaleel McLaughlin may be getting phased out of the rotation with Williams healthy. Samaje Perine functioned almost exclusively as the backup, taking red-zone carries and pass attempts away from the speedy RB3. Perine should be a priority add on waivers if Williams gets hurt, and against the Texans, a pass-catching RB may be what keeps the offense moving.

On Houston’s side, the offense goes as the quarterback goes. C.J. Stroud continues to make his MVP case, as he’s passed for more than 300 yards in four straight games (six on the season). And not an inch of it feels flukey, as he’s continued to pass at a high rate every week.

Plus, it’s not like we don’t know where the ball is going when Stroud lets it fly. Tank Dell has a whopping 43.1% of the team’s air yards since returning from a concussion. The Texans have missed their slippery slot man, Noah Brown, but Nico Collins’s comeback came right on time.

Stroud’s perimeter WR instantly challenged Dell for looks, as Collins took 25.0% of them last Sunday. However, it’s been interior receivers (Jayden Reed – 11.1 PPR points, Rashee Rice – 10.4) to do the most damage against the Broncos since their defense has gotten back on track. So, Dell and Dalton Schultz have the best bet to return value outside of an explosive play downfield. But then there’s the backfield to consider, too.

We finally got Dameon Pierce back, and the Texans’ running game devolved into a two-headed committee. Pierce took five totes to Devin Singletary’s six. But it was the former Bills’ seven targets that gave him the edge from a fantasy standpoint. However, neither will look appealing in this matchup.

Our DvP tool still has Denver ranked as the best matchup for RBs. But since their Week 3 snafu against the Dolphins, the Broncos have allowed just two rushing TDs. Over their last four games, just one rusher has cracked 100 yards. So, with a split backfield, Singletary’s receiving work may be the only fantasy option worth starting in Week 13.