Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts

Deshaun Watson (shoulder) is still being listed as day-to-day by the Browns, even after sitting for two straight weeks (bye, SF). Cleveland managed to play the elements perfectly against the 49ers, but whether or not they can pull off two wins in a row without Watson remains to be seen. 

Watson has stated that he is making progress, but all signs point to this being a weekend decision. PJ Walker (18-34, 192-0-2) did just enough to get the Browns the win last week, but it wasn’t pretty. Most of the Browns' passing yards came on a couple of big plays made by Amari Cooper, who will have a decent matchup against a Colts secondary that ranks 22nd in yards per attempt. It’s worth wondering if Walker can take advantage, though. 

The RB duo of Kareem Hunt and Jerome Ford will again be the main offensive cogs for Cleveland, and they’ll be up against a tough defensive line in the Colts, who are 11th in yards per carry against and limited the explosive Travis Etienne Jr. last week to just 3.1 YPC. 

While Hunt produced the TD last week, it was Ford who did most of the damage for Cleveland, going for 17-84 on the ground. Ford’s matchup isn’t the greatest, but he may be a good buy-low candidate going into Week 8—if he doesn’t score again. 

Oct 1, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford (34) runs with the ball during the second half against the Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

As for the Colts, they too are dealing with injury issues at QB, but their issues are much more set in stone. Anthony Richardson (shoulder) is done for the year, which means Gardner Minshew (329-1-3) will start the rest of the way. 

Minshew threw the ball 55 times last week due to the Jaguars busting out to an early lead and ended up having to take some risks late that led to three INTs. I would look for the Colts to dial things back a lot this week and try to gear up their run game again, which had been working well against tougher run defenses like Tennessee and Baltimore. 

As for who is going to lead their run game, it’s evident the Colts have a clear agenda to get Jonathan Taylor (8-19-0, 5-46-0) going, and fast. He saw 53% of the rush attempts last week—despite Zach Moss going for 23-165-2 against the Titans—the first time he’s taken the majority of the carries all season. 

Taylor has looked sluggish in his two starts, and realistically, it may take him a couple more weeks to get going after he sat out training camp and the first four games. The Browns remain an insanely talented defense but did allow some bigger plays last week to another good rushing offense in San Francisco, with Jordan Mason and Christian McCaffrey both breaking off big runs at points. 

After a tough game, it wouldn’t be overly shocking to see the Colts “potentially” have some success on the ground again—with this also “potentially” being the ultimate contrarian “buy low” spot on Taylor (for betting and fantasy), who management has to be pushing for more work after giving him a $42M contract. 

As much respect as I have for the Browns, this week is the classic letdown spot.

Teams playing the 49ers are 3-19 SU, 5-15-2 ATS since the start of last season in their following game. Right now, the Colts are sitting at +2.5/+2.0, but if any good news on Watson comes through in the next two days, the spread could easily move back to +3.0 or even +3.5. A rusty Watson (-0.024 EPA in 2023) would be a good target to bet against, especially with this game being devoid of weather elements and the Colts having the type of rushing offense that can negate Cleveland’s vicious pass rush. 

Like many games this week, waiting to see how the injury news plays out will be key, but the Colts do look like the side this week that bears buying low on, spread-wise.