Browns at Commanders 

This game is far from a marquee matchup, but it does carry a lot of meaning for the Commanders, who are clinging to the final playoff position in the NFC. Washington sits at 7-7-1 and has the Packers, Seahawks, and Lions all chasing them at 7-8. 

To make matters worse for the Commanders, they are now heading into Week 17 with some quarterback controversy brewing. Taylor Heinicke was benched in last week’s loss and will be replaced this week by Carson Wentz, a player who has gone 2-4 in six starts this year. 

Wentz completed 12 passes on 16 attempts for 123 yards a TD last week against San Francisco, but that was with the game already decided. For the year, he’s thrown 11 TDs to 6 INTs and has a 62.9% completion rate. Is he a better option than Heinicke? The two actually have very similar numbers, although Heinicke is more apt to throw downfield, averaging 7.2 yards per attempt. Perhaps the more conservative approach of Wentz helps the Commanders in a close game this week, but don’t expect any miracles. 

You can also downgrade Terry McLaurin, who should be an active fade candidate when his player props come out. He’s averaged just a 16% target rate with Wentz as his quarterback this year and saw only one target from Wentz last week on 16 passes. 

The matchup this week will also almost certainly lead Washington into a heavy dose of carries for Brian Robinson Jr. Cleveland has allowed 5.2 yards per carry to opposing rushers over the last three weeks (the fourth worst mark in the league) and 15 rushing TDs to the RB position in 2022. Robinson predictably got stonewalled last week against the league's top rush defense in San Francisco, but he has averaged 18.25 carries in the last four games despite the Commanders going 1-2-1 over that span and putting Robinson in less-than-desirable game flow situations. He’ll be a solid breakout candidate this week. 

The Cleveland side of the ball looks harder to predict. Deshaun Watson has not looked great since returning, but there have also been extenuating circumstances like playing in an actual blizzard last week. The problem for Watson and Cleveland fans is that Washington is another tough defensive unit that doesn’t allow a ton of big plays – they’ve given up just one 300+ yard passing game to an opposing quarterback this season. Watson’s Fantasy Life projection for Week 17 currently has him sitting around 221.5 yards for the week. 

In an effort to counteract Watson’s lack of polish, look for Nick Chubb to be relied on ad nauseam again for Cleveland. Chubb has averaged 22.5 carries over the last two games but will be in tough against a Commanders front who has given up just 4.0 yards per carry against at home this year. 

The inclusion of Wentz in this game makes it likely we’ll see even more conservative football from Washington and less involvement from their best playmaker on the outside. That should make a game dominated by both teams’ lead rushing RBs who are good at grinding out first downs on multiple early down runs. Expect lots of slow-paced drives and a low scoring game. As long as this total sits at 40.0 or higher, the under looks like a great play.