Browns at Steelers

The Steelers did not seem like a potential playoff team for most of the year. They lost starting pass-rusher T.J. Watt to an injury in Week 1, and they proceeded to lose six of their next seven games. Watt returned with the team sitting at 2-6 for the year, and since then they’ve gone 6-2.

The Steelers’ playoff odds currently sit at 21% and the first step to getting in is beating the Browns. After that, they would need to get some help; the Dolphins and Patriots would need to lose to the Jets and Bills, respectively, and both of those results seem plausible.

The Steelers’ defense has been the star of the show since Watt returned to the lineup. They’ve been particularly effective in the team’s past three wins, holding each opponent to 240 yards or less. They’ve also generated four takeaways in their past two contests, so they’ve been playing incredibly well.

The team’s offense has struggled to put points on the board, but they have moved the ball well enough. They’ve racked up at least 323 yards in eight straight games, and they’ve had at least 350 in their past two.

Kenny Pickett hasn’t exactly dominated since taking over as the Steelers quarterback, but he has displayed the ability to come through in the clutch. He’s engineered game-winning touchdown drives in back-to-back games, including an absolutely beautiful pass to Najee Harris against the Ravens:

Pickett still hasn’t displayed enough that you feel confident he’s the Steelers’ long-term answer at QB, but he clearly has a flair for the dramatic.

On the other side, Deshaun Watson has not looked good since taking over as the Browns’ quarterback. He has posted a 3-2 record, but that’s been more about the defense than the offense. The Browns have managed 13 points or fewer in three of those contests, and one of the exceptions was a game where they had three non-offensive touchdowns.

However, Watson put together his best game last week versus the Commanders. The team leaned on their running game – Watson attempted just 18 passes – but he was extremely efficient when he did take to the air. He racked up three touchdown passes and averaged 12.72 adjusted yards per attempt.

With this game being a must-win for the Steelers and worth nothing to the Browns, it’s not surprising that Pittsburgh is favored by three points. They’re also getting the majority of the public bets to start the week.

However, the sharps have shown plenty of interest in Cleveland, and this line is down to +2.5 in some locations. There are a few interesting trends backing the Browns, including that the Steelers are just 4-11 against the spread after playing the Ravens under head coach Mike Tomlin.

However, I think the best target in this game is the under. Both of these teams have struggled to light up the scoreboard, yet the total is set at a very reasonable 40.0 points. We’ve seen plenty of totals in the 35-point range as of late, and I would’ve expected this game to follow suit. Playing in Pittsburgh in January is never fun, so points should be at a premium in this matchup.