Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans

The first game of Wild Card Weekend features two of this year’s biggest surprises.

C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans are the first rookie QB and HC duo to have won their division in the Super Bowl era, though they needed some help from a late-season collapse by the Jaguars.

Still, Stroud put together one of the most impressive rookie QB seasons in NFL history with 4,108 passing yards in just 15 games. Stroud had a league-leading average of 273.9 passing yards per game and also had an NFL-low 1.0% interception rate with 26 total TDs to only five INTs.

That's unheard of for a rookie QB, especially one who wasn't even the first overall pick last year.

Stroud did some of his best work in a must-win game against the Colts in Week 18. He completed 76.9% of his passes for 264 yards and two TDs and put together an impressive game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter.

It’s obviously still very early in his career, but it’s hard to argue that Stroud isn’t a borderline top-10 QB in the NFL already. He finished second in adjusted yards per attempt behind only Brock Purdy while ranking 15th in QBR, 14th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade, and 13th in EPA + CPOE.

Even more impressive is the fact that Stroud was able to accomplish this despite having lost one of his top WRs in Tank Dell in Week 13 and having played behind a subpar offensive line due to early-season injuries.

Jan 6, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) drops back to pass against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Scheer-USA TODAY Sports

That said, while Stroud looks like a world-beater at times, the rest of the Texans' roster is still a work in progress. Rookie edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. could also be elite on the other side of the ball, but the rest of Houston's defense is average, at best. They ranked just 14th in EPA allowed per play on the year, and Indianapolis was able to gash them on the ground last week with 227 rushing yards. Were it not for a poor showing from Gardner Minshew, the Colts could've still edged out the Texans for the AFC South title and playoff spot.

Defense hasn't been an issue for the Browns. They’ve been the top defensive team in football all season, particularly against the pass. Myles Garrett leads a pass rush that was the best in the league per PFF, and the secondary graded out as the fifth-best in coverage.

Cleveland's offense has been the bigger question mark this season. They struggled early in the year with Deshaun Watson, P.J. Walker, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson all having struggled to provide consistent play at QB. However, an unlikely hero emerged from the shadows for the Browns over the second half of the season in Joe Flacco.

What Flacco has done in Cleveland over the last month or so has been nothing short of remarkable. He spent the first few months of the season on the couch, and he even reached out to teams like the Jets and Vikings to see if they’d be interested in his services. Their loss has been the Browns’ gain, though, as Flacco has since gone 4-1 in his five starts.

Jan 7, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15) throws a pass during warmups before the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Flacco’s efficiency metrics don’t jump off the page, and his eight INTs in five games remain a concern. Even so, the veteran has given Cleveland some semblance of stability at the most important position in football. Flacco has averaged an impressive 323 passing yards per game with 13 total TDs. If he can keep that up, that kind of offensive output combined with an elite defense could make the Browns very dangerous in the playoffs.

While the Texans still have the edge at QB with Stroud, the experience factor clearly goes to the Browns. This rematch in the playoffs will be very different from their first meeting just a few short weeks ago in Week 16. Even all-time greats have struggled in their first postseason start, so expectations should be tempered for Stroud.

Since 2002, QBs making their first playoff start are 17-35-1 ATS and 17-36 straight up when facing a QB with playoff experience. And Flacco doesn’t just have playoff experience; he’s excelled in the postseason throughout his career. He won a Super Bowl with the Ravens in 2012 and is 10-5 straight up in the playoffs in his career. Flacco's five playoff losses came against three future Hall of Fame QBs: one loss to Peyton Manning, two to Ben Roethlisberger, and two to none other than Tom Brady.

The sharps have been all over the Browns to start the week and have already driven this line from 1.5 to 2.5 points. I locked in a play on Cleveland -1.5 early, but I still think that there’s value on the Browns at anything under a field goal. If you like the Browns, it's best to bet them now. The spread is already up to Cleveland -2.5 (-120) at a lot of locations, so it could even reach three points prior to kickoff on Saturday.